2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:24 · Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron Poitier
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:34: Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 78 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:52: Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 62 yds for a TD — FSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Fitzgerald 34 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:06: Zach Pyron pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 32 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +3.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:20: Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 14:12GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 14:12GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 12:24FSU 4th & 3 at GT 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.4%53% to convertField goal92.3%−0.149% to makePunt92.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 12:24FSU 4th & 3 at GT 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.4%53% to convertField goal92.3%−0.149% to makePunt92.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 10:34GT 4th & 16 at GT 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q1 10:34FSU 4th & 1 at GT 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%71% to convertField goal91.7%−0.249% to makePunt91.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:58GT 4th & 7 at FSU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call10.4%74% to makePunt9.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:00GT 4th & 7 at GT 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q2 9:04GT 4th & 4 at GT 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q2 1:14GT 4th & 17 at GT 18, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it4.5%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 12 at GT 16, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.621% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%81% to makePunt91.3%−2.7average punt
- Q3 4:34GT 4th & 11 at FSU 36, down 21Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.127% to convertField goal2.1%42% to makePuntTheir call2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:31FSU 4th & 6 at GT 6, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%91% to makePunt97.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 13:31GT 4th & 3 at FSU 40, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%52% to convertField goal0.9%−0.234% to makePunt0.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:36GT 4th & 1 at FSU 7, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%70% to convertField goal0.8%−0.291% to makePunt0.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 8:10GT 4th & 3 at FSU 3, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%44% to convertField goal0.9%−0.493% to makePunt0.4%−0.8average punt
- Q4 8:10GT 4th & 3 at FSU 3, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%44% to convertField goal0.9%−0.493% to makePunt0.4%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 0:02FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:34FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:52FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:06GT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.1%97% to makeGo for two7.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:20FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09FSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:486% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
93.8%
David Shanahan punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Mycah Pittman returns for no gain to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
93.8%
David Shanahan punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Mycah Pittman returns for no gain to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2DOWNS6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4894% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:507% → 7%
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-6
93.3%
Zach Gibson sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 29Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+2
93.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
93.0%
David Shanahan punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FUMBLE14 plays · 49 yds · 4:3993% → 92%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
93.0%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Benson,Trey) 5 yards from FSU46 to FSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+9
92.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
50
+8
93.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 8 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+6
93.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 6 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+12
93.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Travis,Jordan pass incomplete short right to Wilson,Johnny, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GT Pass Interference (Sims,Myles) 12 yards from GT 21 to GT 09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
93.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 6 yds to the GTech 3Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+4
91.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24 Lawrance Toafili fumbled, recovered by GTech Charlie ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:579% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5090% → 91%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
90.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 27 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Benson,Trey rush right for 9 yards gain to the GT 44 (Collins,Noah; Brooks,LaMiles) PENALTY FSU Holding (Scott, Jr.,Robert) 10 yards from FSU47 to FSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+15
90.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Roughing The Passer (15 Yards) to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+8
90.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 8 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+15
89.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Travis,Jordan pass incomplete short right to Wilson,Ontaria, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GT Pass Interference (Walton,Zamari) 15 yards from GT 22 to GT 07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0010% → 10%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
90.7%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 13 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+4
90.5%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 4 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+10
89.7%
David Shanahan punt for 36 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 10 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD4 plays · 90 yds · 1:2690% → 92%
GTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:308% → 8%
Q2 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
91.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hall,Hassan rush middle for 1 yard loss to the GT 30 (DeLoach,Kalen) PENALTY GT Chop Block (Williams,Jordan) 15 yards from GT 31 to GT 16. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3092% → 92%
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
92.3%
PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FSU49 to FSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+14
92.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 14 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
92.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the GTech 34 Lawrance Toafili fumbled, recovered by GTech Noah CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 2:149% → 8%
Q2 6:34
2ND & 21
OWN 23
+2
91.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 19
OWN 25
-10
91.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pyron,Zach pass complete deep middle to McCollum,Nate for 18 yards to the GT 43 (Vance,Greedy) PENALTY GT Holding (Leonard,Dylan) 10 yards from GT 25 to GT 15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD7 plays · 66 yds · 1:2891% → 95%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.4%
PENALTY FSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting GT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
91.4%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Smith,Maurice) 5 yards from FSU34 to FSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+10
91.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 10 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Travis,Jordan pass complete deep right to McDonald,Camren for 43 yards to the GT 04 (Sims,Myles), out of bounds PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Wilson,Johnny) 15 yards from GT 47 to FSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 22
OWN 38
+62
95.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 62 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:386% → 5%
Q2 1:14
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+23
94.6%
David Shanahan punt for 45 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 23 yds to the GTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FG9 plays · 24 yds · 1:1495% → 97%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
95.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 4 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+10
95.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 10 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
95.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 12 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
95.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Travis,Jordan pass incomplete short middle to Pittman,Mycah PENALTY GT Offside (Kennard,Kyle) 5 yards from GT 14 to GT 09. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field is confirmed.Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-7
95.0%
Jordan Travis sacked by Trenilyas Tatum for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD8 plays · 54 yds · 1:523% → 7%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
96.7%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 10 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
96.3%
Zach Pyron sacked by Leonard Warner III for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+32
92.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 32 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD12 plays · 91 yds · 4:4093% → 98%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
93.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for no gain to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+12
93.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 12 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+24
93.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 24 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 39 yds · 3:462% → 2%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
97.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 10 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
97.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Malachi Carter for 19 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+5
97.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pyron,Zach pass complete short right to Smith,Dontae for 3 yards loss to the FSU45 (DeLoach,Kalen) PENALTY FSU Offside (Verse,Jared) 5 yards from FSU42 to FSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+6
97.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dontae Smith for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FG15 plays · 74 yds · 6:0398% → 99%
Q3 4:34
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+19
97.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 19 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+10
98.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Travis,Jordan pass incomplete short right to McClain,Malik PENALTY FSU Holding (Smith,Maurice) 10 yards from GT 35 to GT 45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+2
98.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 2 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+24
98.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 24 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
98.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 3 yds to the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19DOWNS19 plays · 72 yds · 5:211% → 1%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 28 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+6
99.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 6 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
98.9%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Nate McCollum for 18 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-15
98.8%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Block Below Waist (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+9
99.0%
Zach Pyron run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 7 Zach Pyron fumbled, recovered by GTech Zach PyronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD14 plays · 97 yds · 7:01100% → 100%
GTDrive 21TD11 plays · 70 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Peje' Harris for 12 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Peje' Harris for 9 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+14
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 14 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass incomplete to Malachi Carter for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Johnny Wilson) to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dontae Smith for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+11
100.0%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Luke Benson for 11 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:20
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 13:06
Zach Pyron pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 32 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q2 2:52
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 62 yds for a TD
+3.4