Try the model
DUKE

Duke 45 at Miami 21

MIA
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:53 · Jake Garcia pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+8.4Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:09: Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 71 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +12.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:06: Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 34 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +9.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:38: Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +17.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:06: Riley Leonard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +19.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:12: Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:15MIA 4th & 1 at DUKE 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11MIA 4th & 1 at DUKE 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:21DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:53DUKE 4th & 11 at MIA 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:46MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:15DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 25, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:58DUKE 4th & 9 at MIA 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:38DUKE 4th & 2 at MIA 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−10.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:53MIA 4th & 3 at DUKE 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−4.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:30DUKE 4th & 7 at MIA 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:28MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:45DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:01DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:09MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:06MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:38DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:06DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:12DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:16DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:4420% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.7%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
79.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 20 yds Jalon Calhoun fumbled, recovered by MiaFl James WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4780% → 80%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
79.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 14 yds to the Duke 32 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 13
OPP 49
+9
79.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacurri Brown for 9 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+8
79.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Romello Brinson for 8 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
79.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
79.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
79.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+6
79.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 6 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+1
79.0%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0821% → 20%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
79.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
79.7%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
79.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0980% → 80%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
79.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 20 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
80.3%
Key'Shawn Smith run for 7 yds to the MIAMI 47 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Block below the waist enforced (Chandler Rivers) to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
80.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
80.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+8
80.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 8 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
80.1%
Lucious Stanley run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0821% → 20%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
79.4%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
79.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 7 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
78.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 5 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
78.9%
Terry Moore run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-10
78.6%
(03:32) LEONARD, Riley pass to the left complete for 6 yards to CALHOUN, Jalon caught at the MIA43 and advanced to the MIA43 (COUCH, Te'Cory), clock 03:28. PENALTY DUK Holding on PICKETT, Justin enforced 10 yards from the MIA49 to the DUK41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
79.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:4080% → 80%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
79.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
79.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 14 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
80.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-11
80.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 11 yards Jaylan Knighton fumbled, recovered by Duke Shaka HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1922% → 27%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
77.6%
Jordan Waters run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+6
77.6%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
77.5%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.4%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.0%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:3528% → 34%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
72.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
71.6%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.3%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0668% → 66%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
67.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
67.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-8
66.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Brandon Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 18
OWN 7
0
65.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 48 yds, downed at the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1935% → 33%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
65.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
65.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
66.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
67.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 1:0966% → 65%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
66.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
65.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 5 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-17
64.9%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0537% → 42%
Q2 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
63.0%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
62.4%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
60.9%
Riley Leonard sacked by Caleb Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
58.5%
Todd Pelino 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0159% → 56%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
59.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
58.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
58.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
57.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
57.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 8 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Jake Garcia run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
56.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sahmir Hagans at the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2545% → 46%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
55.4%
Terry Moore run for 1 yd to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+3
55.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+5
54.7%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+10
53.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds , Jacolby George returns for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4654% → 51%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
53.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
53.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
52.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
52.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 8 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+11
53.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 11 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
54.1%
(00:27) GARCIA, Jake pass to the right complete for 6 yards to MALLORY, Will caught at the DUK34 and advanced to the DUK29, out of bounds, clock 00:25. PENALTY DUK Offsides on ANTHONY JR., Vincent enforced 5 yards from the DUK35 to the DUK30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 5
OPP 30
-8
54.1%
Jake Garcia sacked by Brandon Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
50.8%
Jake Garcia pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
50.5%
(00:13) [NHSG] Kneel down by DUK at DUK17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:09.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:4551% → 64%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
51.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+71
64.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 71 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 14 yds Eli Pancol fumbled, recovered by MiaFl DJ IveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:5667% → 76%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.4%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+34
76.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 34 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
20 plays · 79 yds · 9:2226% → 48%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
73.8%
Riley Leonard sacked by Darrell Jackson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
74.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+19
75.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 19 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
72.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
71.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
72.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
72.0%
Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
71.3%
(09:21) LEONARD, Riley scrambles to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the MIA32, out of bounds, clock 09:14. PENALTY DUK Holding on MOORE, Jaquez enforced 10 yards from the MIA40 to the DUK50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 20
50
+11
73.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
70.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
71.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+21
74.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 21 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
69.2%
Terry Moore run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
69.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+6
70.2%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
68.9%
(05:39) LEONARD, Riley pass up the middle complete for 5 yards to HAGANS, Sahmir caught at the MIA2 and advanced to the MIA0, TOUCHDOWN DUK, score nullified by penalty, clock 05:36. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on ROBERTSON, Jontavis enforced 15 yards to the MIA20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+10
69.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 10 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
68.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 8 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.5%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2257% → 57%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
56.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
58.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
56.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
59.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 7 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
59.6%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
56.8%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4652% → 73%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
48.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 31 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
45.2%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
45.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+9
46.8%
Jordan Waters run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
27.1%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:3129% → 26%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
29.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
28.5%
Jake Garcia run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-9
26.3%
Jake Garcia sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:1677% → 93%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
22.7%
Jordan Waters run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
21.8%
Terry Moore run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
19.6%
Terry Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.4%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:098% → 8%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
7.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
7.5%
Jake Garcia run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+11
7.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
7.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 3
50
+7
8.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
7.7%
Jake Garcia pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:2094% → 96%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
6.0%
Terry Moore run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
5.4%
Terry Moore run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 8
50
+1
4.7%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
4.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-29
1.3%
Brandon Johnson 29 Yd Interception Return (Todd Pelino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:111% → 1%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
1.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
1.4%
(04:45) KNIGHTON, Jaylan rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the MIA46 (JOINER, Darius), clock 04:41. PENALTY MIA Holding on BRANTLEY, Kahlil enforced 10 yards from the MIA44 to the MIA34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
1.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
1.2%
Jake Garcia sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+10
1.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 7
50
-8
1.1%
Jake Garcia sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3599% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
0.8%
Terry Moore run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+11
0.7%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.5%
Terry Moore run for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
0.4%
Terry Moore run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
0.2%
(00:17) [NH] Kneel down by DUK at MIA6 (team loss of 0).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:06
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
-19.7
TD · Q3 3:38
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds for a TD, (Todd Pelino KICK)
-17.3
TD · Q3 14:09
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 71 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com