Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 10 at Louisville 24

LOU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:03 · Malik Cunningham pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 25 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:44: Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45 — PITT win probability +10.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:45: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Lifson for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +26.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:29: (07:29) CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for COOLEY, Trevion thrown to the LOU41, clock 07:25. PENALTY LOU Holding on BROWN, Renato enforced 10 yards from the LOU36 to the LOU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — LOU win probability +9.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:03: Kei'Trel Clark 59 Yd Fumble Return (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +10.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:44LOU 4th & 10 at PITT 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:44LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:43PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:53LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:23LOU 4th & 3 at PITT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:44PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:08LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−4.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:58PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−4.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:47PITT 4th & 4 at LOU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%−0.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−13.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:03LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:19PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−4.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:34PITT 4th & 6 at LOU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:21LOU 4th & 5 at PITT 31, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−4.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:59PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:03LOU 4th & 17 at PITT 32, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:12PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:45LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:03LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:1461% → 61%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+29
60.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 14 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Hill) to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
60.9%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Shayne Simon for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+3
60.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
60.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
60.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 3:0539% → 40%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
60.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Daniel Carter for 8 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
60.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 10 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
60.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 18 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
60.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 15 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
60.0%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3661% → 60%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
60.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+3
60.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 3 yds to the Lvile 6 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Marshon Ford) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+3
60.0%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
59.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for no gain to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 4:1840% → 46%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
59.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-4
59.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the LOUISVILLE 48 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
60.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 5 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+9
59.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
59.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+37
59.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 37 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
54.3%
Israel Abanikanda 12 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1556% → 62%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
55.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 11 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.8%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
55.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+29
54.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Chris Bell for 29 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
56.8%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+9
56.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
62.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 25 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0840% → 41%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
59.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
59.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+5
60.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+12
60.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 12 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
59.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-3
58.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
60.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 8 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
59.4%
Cam Guess punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4762% → 60%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
61.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
61.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
60.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
60.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:3142% → 45%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.0%
run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+29
58.1%
run for 29 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
56.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
55.1%
run for 4 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
54.9%
run for no gain to the Lvile 18 fumbled, recovered by Lvile Momo SanogoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:3561% → 62%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
61.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 30 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
63.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 7 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
63.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
63.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
64.0%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
64.9%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
63.9%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
62.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10INT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:0443% → 48%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
57.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
55.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+1
55.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
55.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+15
56.4%
(01:56) SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the right incomplete intended for WAYNE, Jared thrown to the PIT48; QB hurried by ABDULLAH, Yasir, clock 01:55. PENALTY LOU Roughing the Passer on ABDULLAH, Yasir enforced 15 yards from the PIT44 to the LOU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
53.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
52.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
52.5%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4261% → 60%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
60.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 15 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
62.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
61.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+2
59.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 47 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 2 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
57.4%
(00:12) [NH] Kneel down by PIT at PIT9 (team loss of 1), clock 00:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1344% → 42%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
56.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
57.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
58.4%
Cam Guess punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:2961% → 58%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
60.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
59.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offsides (Calijah Kancey) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
62.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 15 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
63.1%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
62.9%
Brock Domann run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-11
62.0%
Brock Domann sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 20
OWN 47
-5
58.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 45 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:5843% → 41%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
57.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+6
57.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
56.5%
run for no gain to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-2
56.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
58.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
59.1%
Cam Guess punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.8%
Malik Cunningham pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:5748% → 55%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
52.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
51.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Karter Johnson for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
51.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
51.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
49.1%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
49.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 6 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
50.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
44.7%
Ben Sauls 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4649% → 45%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
48.9%
(01:44) CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Tyler thrown to the LOU30, clock 01:41. PENALTY LOU Holding on GONZALEZ, Michael enforced 10 yards from the LOU25 to the LOU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
48.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-10
48.0%
(01:00) CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right complete for 17 yards to HUDSON, Tyler caught at the LOU33, HUDSON, Tyler fumbled at LOU39 forced by WILTZ, Tylar, recovered by LOU FORD, Marshon at the LOU39, returned 0 yards to the LOU39, End of Play, clock 00:40. PENALTY LOU Holding on CHANDLER, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the LOU22 to the LOU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+12
47.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 12 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
46.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 10 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
46.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
44.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Karter Johnson) to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3655% → 54%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
45.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+5
45.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 5 yds Israel Abanikanda fumbled, recovered by Pitt Blake ZubovicSimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
44.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
46.0%
Cam Guess punt for 39 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 26 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Marvin Dallas) to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2748% → 79%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
47.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 26 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
52.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+33
52.3%
Braden Smith pass complete to Malik Cunningham for 33 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
79.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Lifson for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:1428% → 20%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
72.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 36 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-1
67.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
70.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
80.0%
(07:29) CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for COOLEY, Trevion thrown to the LOU41, clock 07:25. PENALTY LOU Holding on BROWN, Renato enforced 10 yards from the LOU36 to the LOU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:0180% → 93%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-1
79.6%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+11
79.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 11 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+28
79.6%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 28 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
84.0%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
88.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
88.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
92.8%
James Turner 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:1511% → 3%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
87.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Thomson for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
50
0
86.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
50
+15
88.5%
(03:20) SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the left incomplete intended for MUMPFIELD, Konata thrown to the LOU20, clock 03:17. PENALTY LOU Roughing the Passer on ABDULLAH, Yasir enforced 15 yards from the LOU50 to the LOU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
86.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Gabe Houy) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+59
97.0%
Kei'Trel Clark 59 Yd Fumble Return (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
97.5%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Monty Montgomery and YaYa Diaby for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5299% → 99%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
98.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 13
OPP 28
0
98.6%
(01:11) [NHSG] Kneel down by LOU at PIT29 (team loss of 1), clock 01:04.Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
98.6%
(00:43) [NHSG] Kneel down by LOU at PIT32 (team loss of 3), clock 00:29.Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
98.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:45
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Lifson for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+26.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:44
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45
-10.8
TD · Q4 3:03
Kei'Trel Clark 59 Yd Fumble Return (James Turner Kick)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com