Speed4x
View as
Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:31 · Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Devaughn Cooper
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:14: Ja'Had Carter 90 Yd Fumble Return (Andre Szmyt Kick) — SYR win probability +6.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:53: Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +10.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:07: B.T. Potter 44 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +5.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:46: Phil Mafah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cade Klubnik intercepted ) — CLEM win probability +16.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 11:26: Will Shipley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Cade Klubnik pass to Joseph Ngata for Two-Point Conversion) — CLEM win probability +32.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 10:31SYR 4th & 3 at CLEM 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%52% to convertField goal18.7%−0.160% to makePunt18.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:38CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 31, tiedClose callWent for it · 78.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.9%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt79.0%average punt
- Q1 1:09CLEM 4th & 2 at SYR 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.9%57% to convertField goal78.4%−0.534% to makePunt78.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:28SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snapGo for it21.7%−0.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q2 4:40CLEM 4th & 2 at SYR 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.3%57% to convertField goal63.7%−1.649% to makePunt62.6%−2.7average punt
- Q2 0:07CLEM 4th & 16 at SYR 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snapGo for it44.8%−1.815% to convertField goalTheir call46.6%64% to makePunt43.7%−2.9average punt
- Q3 12:33CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 42, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snapGo for it48.0%−1.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q3 9:13SYR 4th & 25 at SYR 4, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it49.7%−6.65% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.3%average punt
- Q3 7:43SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 44, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.2%−1.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q3 4:53SYR 4th & 3 at CLEM 43, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 63.0% before the snapGo for it64.4%52% to convertField goal60.7%−3.728% to makePuntTheir call62.1%−2.3average punt
- Q4 13:46CLEM 4th & 1 at SYR 1, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.1%59% to convertField goal24.8%−4.394% to makePunt15.4%−13.7average punt
- Q4 11:49SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 21, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it54.5%−8.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%average punt
- Q4 8:19SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it24.6%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%average punt
- Q4 6:06CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 38, up 3Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snapGo for it74.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:56SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 22, down 3Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it21.1%35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:33CLEM 4th & 2 at SYR 27, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snapGo for it86.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call84.9%−2.162% to makePunt69.5%−17.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:45CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:30SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.9%97% to makeGo for two19.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:14SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.9%97% to makeGo for two30.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:53SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.4%97% to makeGo for two48.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:26CLEM Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick70.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call70.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1DOWNS12 plays · 47 yds · 4:2216% → 18%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
83.6%
CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Murphy) to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
83.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 2 yds to the Clem 41Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-2
82.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
82.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 3 yds to the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2683% → 84%
SYRDrive 3TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0817% → 20%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 18 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+17
82.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
82.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 25 yds to the Clem 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
80.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 12 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4INT16 plays · 42 yds · 5:2581% → 81%
Q1 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
80.8%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 14 yds to the Clem 38 CLEMSON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Joseph Ngata) to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
80.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+4
80.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 4 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
80.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Ja'Had Carter return for no gain to the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3321% → 21%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
78.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 3 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-6
78.7%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Tyler Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 12Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+5
79.0%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 44 yds , Will Taylor returns for 5 yds to the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD9 plays · 43 yds · 4:0680% → 73%
CLEMDrive 7DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 4:1871% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8TD11 plays · 68 yds · 2:4436% → 55%
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
64.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 12 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
60.0%
Shrader, Garrett pass complete to Pena, Trebor for 6 yards to the CLEMSON36, PENALTY CLEMSON offside (Murphy, Myles) 5 yards to the CLEMSON37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9FG12 plays · 49 yds · 1:4149% → 52%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for no gain to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
48.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 13 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
50.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
50
+19
50.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 19 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
51.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-11
51.2%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Kevin Jobity Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Syrac 31Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 21
OPP 31
+5
46.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 5 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0649% → 49%
CLEMDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2253% → 49%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 3:1150% → 54%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
47.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 5 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-10
46.2%
Shrader, Garrett pass incomplete to Tucker, Sean, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding (Hoeh, Wes) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-5
46.8%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Tyler Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 9Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 24
OWN 5
-1
47.0%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Trenton Simpson and Myles Murphy for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 4Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 25
OWN 4
+18
46.1%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 55 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 18 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13FUMBLE1 play · 21 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
47.0%
Will Shipley run for 21 yds to the Syrac 20 Will Shipley fumbled, forced by Rob Hanna, recovered by Syrac Marlowe WaxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1556% → 58%
Q3 7:43
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
41.9%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15INT3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1042% → 39%
SYRDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0263% → 62%
Q3 5:39
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+10
36.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 10 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD16 plays · 80 yds · 5:5837% → 49%
Q3 4:17
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+18
37.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 18 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 14
OPP 46
-11
34.9%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Steve Linton for a loss of 11 yards to the Clem 43Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 25
OWN 43
+25
31.5%
Cade Klubnik run for 10 yds to the CLEMSON 47 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Fuentes-Cundiff) to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+17
34.9%
Cade Klubnik run for 8 yds to the Syrac 17 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Marlowe Wax) to the Syrac 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:5059% → 58%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 5 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
39.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 1 yd to the Syrac 31Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
40.1%
Shrader, Garrett pass complete to Gadsden II, Oronde for 19 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding (Bleich, Christopher) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+1
41.6%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 41 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 1 yd to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD3 plays · 61 yds · 0:1346% → 81%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
50
+50
78.2%
Will Shipley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Cade Klubnik pass to Joseph Ngata for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0127% → 27%
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5975% → 74%
Q4 6:06
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+8
74.4%
Aidan Swanson punt for 51 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 8 yds to the Syrac 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5929% → 27%
Q4 5:20
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+2
71.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 2 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+27
73.3%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEMSON 41 SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Syrac 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23FG8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1284% → 94%
Q4 2:58
3RD & 11
50
+15
85.0%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Collins, Beaux, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Johnson, Isaiah) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
89.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Davis Allen for 1 yd to the Syrac 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24INT8 plays · 45 yds · 1:1313% → 23%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
86.7%
Garrett Shrader sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 9 yards to the Syrac 16Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+22
87.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 22 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
84.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 10 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
82.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 3 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+19
83.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 19 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.9%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted R.J. Mickens return for no gain to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:26
Will Shipley run for 50 yds for a TD, (Cade Klubnik pass to Joseph Ngata for Two-Point Conversion)
+32.1
TD · Q4 13:46
Phil Mafah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cade Klubnik intercepted )
+16.6
TD · Q2 1:53
Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
-10.5