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VT

Virginia Tech 29 at Pittsburgh 45

PITT
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:08 · Peter Moore punt for 31 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense+8.9Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:54: Israel Abanikanda run for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:30: Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 43 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK) — VT win probability +8.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:25: Nyke Johnson 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Grant Wells Pass to Jalen Holston for Two-Point Conversion) — VT win probability +20.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:40: Israel Abanikanda 10 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +14.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:56: Israel Abanikanda 80 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:58VT 4th & 7 at PITT 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:48PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:48PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:06VT 4th & 11 at PITT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:17PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59VT 4th & 1 at PITT 1, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:06VT 4th & 7 at VT 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:11PITT 4th & 7 at VT 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:30VT 4th & 3 at VT 32, down 1
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:21PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:07PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 36, up 1
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:34VT 4th & 5 at VT 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:08VT 4th & 10 at VT 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:21VT 4th & 16 at VT 47, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:34PITT 4th & 3 at VT 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:25PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:00PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−4.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:08VT 4th & 10 at PITT 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−6.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:50VT 4th & 14 at VT 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:16PITT 4th & 8 at VT 41, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:46VT 4th & 12 at VT 17, down 16
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:53PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:45VT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:14PITT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:54PITT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:48PITT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:30VT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:25VT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:40PITT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:56PITT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0218% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.1%
Grant Wells run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
82.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
82.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offsides (Habakkuk Baldonado) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
82.1%
Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
82.1%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
82.1%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
81.5%
Peter Moore punt for 31 yds, downed at the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1082% → 81%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
81.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 13
OWN 2
-1
81.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 14
OWN 1
0
81.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 14
OWN 1
0
80.7%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 yds , Jadan Blue returns for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 14
OWN 1
0
80.7%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 yds , Jadan Blue returns for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4219% → 20%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
80.6%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
80.6%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
80.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 7 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
80.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-5
80.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chamarri Conner) to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
80.5%
Peter Moore punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 95 yds · 5:1381% → 82%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
80.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+1
80.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 8Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+10
80.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 10 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
80.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 2 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
80.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+12
80.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 12 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
80.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
81.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Jared Wayne) to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
80.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+7
80.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 7 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+9
80.8%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the right incomplete intended for WAYNE, Jared thrown to the VTU35; QB hurried by HOLLIFIELD, Dax. PENALTY VTU Holding on CHATMAN, Armani enforced 9 yards from the PIT47 to the VTU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
82.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 38 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0319% → 22%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
81.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Pass Interference Roughing the Passer on ALEXANDRE, Deslin enforced (A.J. Woods) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
80.3%
WELLS, Grant pass up the middle incomplete intended for BLUE, Jadan broken up by HALLETT II, Erick at the PIT5. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on HALLETT II, Erick enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the PIT5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.3%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (William Ross PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2779% → 78%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
79.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
78.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 38 yds , Jadan Blue returns for no gain to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 5:1821% → 26%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
78.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Peter Moore) to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+2
78.9%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+5
79.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+14
78.7%
Grant Wells run for 14 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
78.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 9 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
77.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
78.0%
Malachi Thomas run for 6 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+4
76.7%
Malachi Thomas run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
76.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 4 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+16
76.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 16 yds to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
76.7%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
76.7%
WELLS, Grant pass up the middle incomplete intended for GALLO, Nick thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on HALLETT II, Erick enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the PIT2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.3%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.3%
Malachi Thomas run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
73.7%
William Ross 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3975% → 74%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
75.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
74.3%
Kedon Slovis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:3028% → 34%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
71.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 6 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
66.5%
Keshawn King run for 19 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3167% → 75%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
67.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 28 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
68.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+4
68.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 4 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+9
68.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 9 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
69.6%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the left incomplete intended for WAYNE, Jared thrown to the VTU15. PENALTY VTU Holding on DELANE, Mansoor enforced 10 yards from the VTU35 to the VTU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
69.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
69.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
74.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0829% → 28%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
70.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 1 yd to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.5%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
71.8%
Peter Moore punt for 27 yds, downed at the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5574% → 76%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
73.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 24 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
75.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
75.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for no gain to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
74.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+47
76.4%
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0625% → 25%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Grant Wells run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Chance Black for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
75.7%
MOORE, Peter punt 33 yards to the PIT40 out of bounds, clock 02:40. PENALTY PIT Running Into the kicker on WILTZ, Tylar enforced 5 yards from the VTU27 to the VTU32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
74.9%
punt blocked by Habakkuk Baldonado blocked by Habakkuk BaldonadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0977% → 74%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
76.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
76.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
73.9%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 36 yds , Jadan Blue returns for no gain to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15INT
14 plays · 31 yds · 1:2826% → 25%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.9%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
74.2%
Malachi Thomas run for 12 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
73.2%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+30
73.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 30 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
70.2%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
68.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
70.3%
Grant Wells run for 6 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
69.1%
WELLS, Grant pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Malachi thrown to the PIT21. PENALTY VTU Face mask on CLEMENTS, Parker enforced 15 yards from the PIT23 to the PIT38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 25
OPP 38
-11
70.9%
Grant Wells sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 36
OPP 49
0
72.3%
Grant Wells pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
75.1%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the right complete for 8 yards to BRADLEY, Jaden caught at the PIT25 and advanced to the PIT37 (CONNER, Chamarri). PENALTY PIT Holding on MEANS, Bub enforced 10 yards from the PIT29 to the PIT19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4675% → 74%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+18
74.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 18 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-1
76.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
75.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
73.5%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3326% → 25%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
73.6%
Malachi Thomas run for 4 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
73.6%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
74.4%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
75.0%
Peter Moore punt for 32 yds, downed at the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:4076% → 86%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
75.8%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
76.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 7 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
76.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
77.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
75.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
85.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4617% → 16%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Peter Moore punt for 31 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2085% → 92%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
85.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Karter Johnson for 14 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
85.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
85.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+17
85.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 17 yds to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
85.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
92.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:279% → 8%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.6%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
90.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 11 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WILTZ, Tylar enforced (Tylar Wiltz) to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
89.4%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
89.5%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-7
89.9%
Grant Wells sacked by Solomon DeShields for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
91.6%
Peter Moore punt for 29 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:4794% → 94%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
93.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+37
93.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 37 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
94.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-1
94.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-1
94.3%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
93.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:048% → 18%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
91.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 17 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 5 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+43
82.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 43 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT TD
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3587% → 66%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-12
86.0%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jayden McDonald for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
65.8%
Nyke Johnson 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Grant Wells Pass to Jalen Holston for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2569% → 67%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
68.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jadan Blue at the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:4634% → 35%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
66.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 5 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
63.9%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
64.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 10 yds Kaleb Smith fumbled, recovered by Pitt Shayne SimonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:3475% → 89%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
74.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 29 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Chamarri Conner) to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.6%
Israel Abanikanda 10 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 2:3213% → 11%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 16 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
85.2%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
84.8%
Malachi Thomas run for no gain to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
85.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.0%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
87.4%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+29
88.3%
Malachi Thomas run for 29 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
85.3%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
85.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
87.2%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
89.0%
William Ross 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
96.9%
Israel Abanikanda 80 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:064% → 3%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.1%
Grant Wells run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-15
95.8%
WELLS, Grant pass to the left incomplete intended for BLUE, Jadan broken up by HALLETT II, Erick at the VTU38. PENALTY VTU Pass Interference on JONES, Jaylen enforced 15 yards to the VTU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-3
96.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 14Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+7
96.2%
Malachi Thomas run for 7 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
96.7%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:3498% → 98%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+16
97.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 16 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.9%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
97.9%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-5
97.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+5
97.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+2
98.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 35 yds , William Kakavitsas returns for 2 yds to the VTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 32PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
97.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 8 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+3
97.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.6%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
97.6%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-2
97.7%
Grant Wells sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Peter Moore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
99.3%
Daniel Carter run for 11 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:25
Nyke Johnson 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Grant Wells Pass to Jalen Holston for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.2
TD · Q4 10:40
Israel Abanikanda 10 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)
+14.1
TD · Q3 9:54
Israel Abanikanda run for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com