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UNC

North Carolina 27 at Miami 24

MIA
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:02 · Tyler Van Dyke sacked by DeAndre Boykins for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior+5.3Garbage-time factor−1.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:44: Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +9.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:50: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +11.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:31: Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +9.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:28: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +12.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:20: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +34.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:25MIA 4th & 2 at UNC 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:08MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59UNC 4th & 1 at MIA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20UNC 4th & 4 at MIA 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−9.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:09UNC 4th & 9 at MIA 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:39MIA 4th & 2 at UNC 26, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:02MIA 4th & 3 at UNC 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.5%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:58UNC 4th & 17 at MIA 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−11.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:47MIA 4th & 6 at UNC 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:58UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:05MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:31MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−4.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−14.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:10UNC 4th & 2 at MIA 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−10.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:14UNC 4th & 7 at MIA 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−3.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:41MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:55UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:44UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:50MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:31UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:20MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:2863% → 63%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
62.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+16
62.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 16 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
62.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
62.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
62.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
62.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:3038% → 40%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
62.4%
Maye, Drake pass complete to Jones, J.J. for 20 yards to the UNC25, PENALTY UNC false start 2 yards to the UNC3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+4
62.4%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+7
62.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+5
62.5%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
62.3%
Caleb Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
62.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+74
59.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 74 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4460% → 59%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
60.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
59.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
60.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 19 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
60.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
60.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
60.0%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
58.7%
Andres Borregales 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:4442% → 44%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
58.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
57.6%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
57.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 8 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
56.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+33
57.0%
Drake Maye run for 33 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
55.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-1
55.6%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
55.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 4
OPP 7
0
56.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:4557% → 55%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
56.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 10 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
56.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
56.4%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
56.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 9 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+1
56.9%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
55.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 41 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
57.8%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete to Skinner, Jaleel, PENALTY UNC illegal use of hands 11 yards to the UNC11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
57.7%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
57.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (1 yards) (1 Yards) to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.2%
Tyler Van Dyke run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 2:3646% → 60%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
53.8%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+6
53.7%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+3
53.9%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
53.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
52.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 22 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+52
50.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 52 yds to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Jacolbe CowanSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:3143% → 54%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
42.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jonathan Denis) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+9
41.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 9 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+31
41.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 31 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
42.8%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+18
42.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 18 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
53.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1652% → 69%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.5%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
47.4%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
47.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
45.9%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+22
46.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 22 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
43.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-3
42.5%
Drake Maye sacked by Mitchell Agude for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
41.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+22
44.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 22 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
30.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 0:4934% → 51%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
33.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
35.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
36.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 12 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
36.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
35.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 8 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+22
35.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 22 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
36.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.8%
Drake Maye pass intercepted Keontra Smith return for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:1349% → 55%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
48.9%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+21
48.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 21 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
55.0%
Andres Borregales 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3950% → 49%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
50.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
51.4%
Drake Maye pass intercepted Kamren Kinchens return for no gain to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4953% → 53%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
52.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
54.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+8
53.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
54.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
54.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+6
51.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 6 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-7
52.7%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by DeAndre Boykins for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:0053% → 61%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
47.1%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+12
46.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 12 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
45.2%
Caleb Hood run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
45.2%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
44.9%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-10
46.1%
Drake Maye sacked by Corey Flagg Jr. and Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+38
39.0%
Noah Burnette 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0241% → 39%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
41.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 15 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
41.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
44.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
44.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 2 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
43.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-4
44.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
39.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:4964% → 65%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
36.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+10
36.5%
Caleb Hood run for 20 yds to the NCaro 22 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryson Nesbit) to the NCaro 12Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 1
OWN 12
+6
35.5%
Caleb Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
34.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
33.5%
Drake Maye sacked by Darrell Jackson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-2
34.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Keontra Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+6
34.8%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 9
OWN 31
-5
35.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Bryson Nesbit) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+3
35.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Brashard Smith returns for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Avery Huff) to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FUMBLE
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1237% → 34%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
36.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 23 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
37.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
38.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
37.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+16
33.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 16 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
38.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
34.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 9 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+9
33.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 9 yds to the NCaro 17 Jaylan Knighton fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FG
19 plays · 81 yds · 8:1473% → 91%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
27.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
25.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+7
25.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
24.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
22.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
21.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 9 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
19.1%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
19.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
18.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-1
18.1%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+10
17.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 10 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
15.6%
Drake Maye run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
15.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+9
14.8%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
13.5%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
11.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
11.6%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
8.9%
Noah Burnette 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 1:3510% → 42%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
10.3%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass pass intended for Ladson Jr., Frank intercepted by Kelly, Cam'Ron at the UNC36, Kelly, Cam'Ron return 0 yards to the UNC36, PENALTY UNC pass interference 15 yards to the UNC48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
12.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 12
50
0
10.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 12
50
+17
9.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 17 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
10.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
9.7%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete to Ladson Jr., Frank, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Denis, Jonathan) 10 yards to the UNC43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+8
7.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+19
7.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 19 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
41.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:0283% → 88%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
17.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
15.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-2
16.8%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
12.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Wade Gullickson at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 1:0023% → 19%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
23.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+12
22.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 12 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
21.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
19.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaleel SkinnerSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+6
18.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+12
19.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 12 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
23.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
21.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 6 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
19.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted DeAndre Boykins return for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
6.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:20
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+34.1
TD · Q2 0:28
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 5:50
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com