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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreWAG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:47 · Sean Tucker run for 3 yds to the Wagn 4 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:23: Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — WAG win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:48: Sean Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:42: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 16 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:03: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 22 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WAG made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 7:25WAG 4th & 2 at WAG 45, down 7Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:47WAG 4th & 18 at WAG 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 3:47SYR 4th & 1 at WAG 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%70% to convertField goal99.3%−0.291% to makePunt98.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:49WAG 4th & 25 at WAG 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 8:34WAG 4th & 7 at WAG 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 5:11WAG 4th & 19 at WAG 17, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 1:20WAG 4th & 3 at WAG 32, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:26WAG 4th & 7 at WAG 36, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 0:06WAG 4th & 9 at SYR 49, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:04SYR 4th & 3 at WAG 3, up 56Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:18WAG 4th & 13 at WAG 22, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:23SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:32SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:48SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:42SYR Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:03SYR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:33SYR Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:01SYR Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:34SYR Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD9 plays · 55 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+16
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 16 yds to the Wagn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+8
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the Wagn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+20
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 20 yds to the Wagn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:580% → 1%
Q1 7:25
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Dylan Hach punt for 43 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 4 yds to the Syrac 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3TD5 plays · 84 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
WAGDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q1 3:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
99.5%
Dylan Hach punt for 39 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 5 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD8 plays · 51 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
99.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 18 yds to the Wagn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
99.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 17 yds to the Wagn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+7
99.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 7 yds to the Wagn 14Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
99.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 6 yds to the Wagn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
Ryan Kraft pass complete to Julian Jordan for 15 yds to the Wagn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+4
99.6%
Ryan Kraft pass complete to Chase Stafford for 4 yds to the Wagn 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-16
99.6%
Ryan Kraft sacked by Steve Linton for a loss of 16 yards to the Wagn 25Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 25
OWN 25
+10
99.6%
Dylan Hach punt for 35 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7TD6 plays · 50 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+14
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 14 yds to the Wagn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
99.6%
Sean Tucker run for 23 yds to the Wagn 8 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Wagn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 16 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q2 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Dylan Hach punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9TD4 plays · 65 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 32 yds to the Wagn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Tucker,Sean rush left for 10 yards gain to the WAG02 (Coleman,Branden) PENALTY SYR Holding 10 yards from WAG12 to WAG22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+22
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 22 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 10INT TD4 plays · 1 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
PENALTY SYR UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from SYR35 to SYR20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q2 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-9
99.9%
Ryan Kraft sacked by Steve Linton for a loss of 9 yards to the Wagn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12TD5 plays · 41 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
PENALTY SYR Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WAG13 to WAG18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Dylan Hach punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14END OF HALF6 plays · 43 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+9
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 9 yds to the Wagn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 8:26
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Dylan Hach punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 11 yds to the Wagn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 15 yds to the Wagn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 12 yds to the Wagn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 5:280% → 0%
SYRDrive 18FG5 plays · 93 yds · 6:56100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 5:18
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Dylan Hach punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the Syrac 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20END OF GAME8 plays · 39 yds · 5:18100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
100.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 11 yds to the Wagn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to CJ Hayes for 5 yds to the Wagn 39Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
100.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 12Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
100.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-2
100.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:42
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 16 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 7:03
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 22 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 11:23
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
-0.1