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VT

Virginia Tech 10 at North Carolina 41

UNC
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:16 · Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+24.0Pregame prior+10.0Score differential+15.2Garbage-time factor+4.0Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:37: Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +4.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:28: Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +7.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:28: Grant Wells run for 2 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK) — VT win probability +5.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Noah Burnette 44 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +4.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:45: Drake Maye run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 13:10UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19VT 4th & 3 at UNC 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19UNC 4th & 1 at VT 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37UNC 4th & 3 at VT 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:55VT 4th & 10 at VT 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 7 at VT 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:57VT 4th & 2 at VT 37, down 18
    Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:32UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47VT 4th & 7 at UNC 14, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45VT 4th & 1 at VT 45, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:16VT 4th & 4 at VT 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:50UNC 4th & 3 at VT 4, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:25VT 4th & 4 at VT 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:09VT 4th & 1 at VT 31, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:51UNC 4th & 8 at VT 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:41VT 4th & 11 at VT 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:40UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 24, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:56VT 4th & 11 at UNC 39, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 41, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:37UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:37UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:28UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28VT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:45UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:29UNC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.0%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
77.0%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Caleb Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
77.0%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
77.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Caleb HoodSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
76.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DJ Harvey at the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:5124% → 25%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
76.5%
Keshawn King run for 5 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
76.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 3 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
76.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
76.5%
Keshawn King run for 6 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+34
76.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 34 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.3%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
76.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Christian MossSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
76.4%
PENALTY VT False Start (Dzansi,Silas) 5 yards from UNC24 to UNC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+12
76.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
75.1%
William Ross 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4275% → 76%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.2%
Caleb Hood run for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+29
75.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 29 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
75.9%
Caleb Hood run for 18 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
75.9%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
75.9%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+6
75.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+1
75.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
75.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
75.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the VTech 5Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
75.7%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the VTech 3Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4224% → 25%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.6%
Da'Wain Lofton run for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
75.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
75.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 14 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xayvion Turner-BradshawSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
75.2%
Grant Wells run for no gain to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
75.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
75.3%
Peter Moore punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 4:1875% → 81%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
74.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+21
74.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 21 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
75.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 9 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
75.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 6 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
75.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
75.8%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Downs,Josh) 5 yards from VT 46 to UNC49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+2
74.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 2 yds Omarion Hampton fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+10
74.3%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+24
74.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 24 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
75.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 18 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.9%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.9%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:0321% → 21%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
79.2%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
79.2%
Grant Wells run for 6 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+2
79.5%
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
79.5%
Grant Wells pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
86.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2714% → 14%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
85.8%
Keshawn King run for 6 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
85.6%
Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
85.6%
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
85.7%
Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+4
85.9%
Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+7
86.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 7 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
86.1%
Peter Moore punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2587% → 87%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.0%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
86.9%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
86.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+5
86.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds , DJ Harvey returns for 5 yds to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
17 plays · 69 yds · 5:0414% → 20%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
86.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 8 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
85.9%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+25
86.6%
Keshawn King run for 25 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
85.1%
Keshawn King run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
84.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Chance Black for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+11
85.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 11 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
84.8%
Chance Black run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
84.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Chance BlackSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+1
85.5%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+7
85.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 7 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
84.5%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.5%
Bryce Duke run for 1 yd to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.5%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:2883% → 89%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
84.0%
Drake Maye run for 14 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
84.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+44
89.4%
Noah Burnette 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1514% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
85.7%
Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
85.7%
Grant Wells run for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
85.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 4 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
85.0%
Bryce Duke run for no gain to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
86.5%
Peter Moore punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 4:0088% → 96%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
87.9%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+6
87.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 6 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+4
87.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
88.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
87.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+11
87.5%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
88.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 24 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.7%
Kobe Paysour pass incomplete to Drake MayeSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+10
88.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
88.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 35 yds to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Grant Wells run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2696% → 98%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
96.4%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+20
96.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 20 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+35
96.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 35 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
96.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 1 yd to the VTech 10Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+6
96.6%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
96.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
97.6%
Noah Burnette 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:253% → 2%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.5%
Chance Black run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
97.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+16
97.7%
Peter Moore punt for 40 yds , Josh Downs returns for 16 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5698% → 100%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
98.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+33
98.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 33 yds Josh Downs fumbled, recovered by NCaro Gavin Blackwell for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
98.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake sacked for loss of 1 yard to the VT 27 (Nelson,Cole) PENALTY UNC Holding (Montilus,Ed) 10 yards from VT 26 to VT 36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+11
98.1%
D.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 25 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Bryce Duke run for 1 yd to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+8
99.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jaylen Jones for 8 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cam'Ron Kelly at the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
99.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 7 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.8%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
99.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 4 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+25
99.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 25 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
99.8%
Noah Burnette 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Nick Gallo for 6 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Bryce Duke run for 5 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
PENALTY VT False Start (Jordan,Johnny) 5 yards from VT 33 to VT 28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 9 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Chance Black run for 6 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
99.9%
Jason Brown sacked by Jacolbe Cowan for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Peter Moore punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to George PettawaySimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Justin Olson for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to George PettawaySimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by William Kakavitsas at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Chance Black run for 5 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 11 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass incomplete to Jadan BlueSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Chance Black run for 4 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Jaylen Jones for 9 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-8
99.9%
Jason Brown sacked by Randy Caldwell for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 16
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Jason pass incomplete short right to Jones,Jaylen PENALTY UNC Offside (Hamrick,Malaki) 5 yards from UNC44 to UNC39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass incomplete to Jaylen JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Pounds,Diego) 5 yards from UNC37 to UNC32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Cole Maynard punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the VTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:45
Drake Maye run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 10:28
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 0:28
Grant Wells run for 2 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com