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WAKE

Wake Forest 31 at Florida State 21

FSU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:24 · Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−31.5Pregame prior+3.9Score differential−15.5Garbage-time factor−8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:59: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +5.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:15: Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:18: Justice Ellison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +15.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:03: Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:32: Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Travis pass to Markeston Douglas for Two-Point Conversion) — FSU win probability +24.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:58WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25WAKE 4th & 1 at FSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:09FSU 4th & 11 at WAKE 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:25WAKE 4th & 1 at FSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−3.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:54WAKE 4th & 22 at FSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43FSU 4th & 10 at WAKE 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:57WAKE 4th & 22 at WAKE 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:24WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 19, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:30WAKE 4th & 3 at FSU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−3.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:55WAKE 4th & 9 at FSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:45FSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:09FSU 4th & 20 at WAKE 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:56FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:59WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:15WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:18WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:03FSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:32FSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:5269% → 70%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
68.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+25
68.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 25 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
68.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 30 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
68.9%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+16
68.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 16 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
69.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3231% → 30%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.3%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 3 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaeger BullSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
69.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 9 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
69.2%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-10
69.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
69.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1170% → 70%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
69.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31 Treshaun Ward fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
69.9%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+2
69.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
69.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3530% → 34%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
69.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.8%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
69.9%
Sam Hartman run for 10 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
69.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 10 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
69.6%
Christian Turner run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
69.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Christian TurnerSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
69.3%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+15
70.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
69.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
69.2%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.7%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.3%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:2567% → 67%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
66.9%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+25
66.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 25 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
67.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
67.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
66.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 3:5634% → 43%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
66.1%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
66.0%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
66.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
65.9%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Bull, Jaeger, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Lundy, DJ) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
65.0%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
64.4%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
64.3%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
50
0
63.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
50
+8
64.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+35
63.6%
Justice Ellison run for 35 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
62.8%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
62.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
59.1%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39 Jordan Travis fumbled, forced by Jaylen Hudson, recovered by WFrst Chase JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:1544% → 52%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.5%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
56.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Turner for 17 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
55.6%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
55.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
48.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3150% → 48%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
50.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
50.1%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
49.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+2
48.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 2 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
47.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11MISSED FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 5:0654% → 58%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
46.2%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
46.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
45.5%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
43.9%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaeger BullSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
43.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
42.8%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+10
43.6%
Justice Ellison run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
41.6%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+16
41.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Omarion Cooper) to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
40.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Jurgens) to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
40.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+7
40.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-9
40.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 22
OPP 26
+44
41.7%
Matthew Dennis 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 2:5741% → 41%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
40.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 7 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+16
40.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
41.3%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
40.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 7 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
40.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 18 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
41.2%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
40.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
39.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
40.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-2
42.7%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
41.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
40.7%
Ryan Fitzgerald 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
31.9%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2265% → 85%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.2%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
34.5%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
33.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 22 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
31.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
30.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 10 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
29.9%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
14.7%
Justice Ellison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:0222% → 29%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
21.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+24
21.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 24 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
22.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+24
20.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 24 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
21.3%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
20.9%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+4
17.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Deuce Spann for 4 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
18.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 15 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
20.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 6Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:4880% → 79%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
20.5%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-10
20.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-6
21.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Joshua Farmer for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 22
OWN 28
+34
21.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 34 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · -10 yds · 4:2027% → 19%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
26.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Darius Washington) to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+3
25.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+6
24.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+7
24.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 7 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
24.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
23.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+1
22.7%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 19
OPP 31
-7
21.1%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 26
OPP 38
-5
19.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 31
OPP 43
+30
19.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds, downed at the WFrst 8 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:5687% → 88%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
13.0%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
12.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 6 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+7
12.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 7 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
12.2%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
11.8%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-6
11.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
11.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:5218% → 38%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
18.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (D'Mitri Emmanuel) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
16.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+15
14.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Gavin Holmes) to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
16.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+28
17.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 28 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
18.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
13.8%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
13.1%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 4Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Travis pass to Markeston Douglas for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20FG
23 plays · 66 yds · 6:1577% → 92%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.3%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
23.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
20.6%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
20.4%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+13
19.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
18.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
17.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+7
18.1%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+4
19.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
15.2%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+14
13.1%
Christian Turner run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
12.5%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+6
12.4%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+7
12.5%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
10.5%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
10.0%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
8.7%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 0
OPP 4
-5
9.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
7.7%
Matthew Dennis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21MISSED FG
15 plays · 38 yds · 1:414% → 3%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
4.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
4.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 15 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
4.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 3 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
4.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
4.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 6 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+10
3.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
5.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Markeston Douglas) to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+10
5.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 10 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-10
5.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
4.4%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
3.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Markeston DouglasSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 15
OPP 32
-5
3.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 20
OPP 37
+55
3.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 55 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2096% → 96%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 36Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:32
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Travis pass to Markeston Douglas for Two-Point Conversion)
+24.4
TD · Q3 12:18
Justice Ellison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 7:03
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com