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LOU

Louisville 33 at Boston College 34

BC
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:19 · Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Lvile 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−28.5Home team on offense−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:13: Alex Broome run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +11.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:00: Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +11.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:07: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 69 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +19.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:50: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +18.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:56: Connor Lytton 26 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +29.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 6:19LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:14LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:22LOU 4th & 6 at BC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:56LOU 4th & 3 at BC 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:42BC 4th & 7 at LOU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:51LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 23, down 4
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:11BC 4th & 3 at BC 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:03LOU 4th & 15 at BC 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:07BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:26LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:24BC 4th & 13 at LOU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−6.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−15.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:56LOU 4th & 4 at BC 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−6.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56BC 4th & 9 at LOU 9, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−22.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−40.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:33LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:51LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:03BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:59LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:13BC Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:00LOU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:07BC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:50LOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:0981% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
18.6%
Tiyon Evans run for 10 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
18.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 13 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for no gain to the BC 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
18.6%
Tiyon Evans run for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
18.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
18.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+14
18.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 14 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
18.6%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
18.6%
Tiyon Evans run for 19 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.6%
Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the BC 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.6%
EVANS, Tiyon rush up the middle for no gain to the BC1 (WILLIAMS, Kwan). PENALTY BC Offsides on STEELE, Bryce enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the BC1 to the BC1 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.6%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2INT
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:0220% → 21%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
20.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+50
20.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 50 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2480% → 79%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
20.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
20.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 10
-5
20.7%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 5Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 14
OWN 5
0
21.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:4522% → 25%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
21.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 26 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
22.2%
Zay Flowers run for 22 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.2%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1476% → 74%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
24.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
23.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 7 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
23.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-4
23.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Elijah Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
24.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
25.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds, downed at the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1526% → 27%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
26.0%
Phil Jurkovec run for 4 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
26.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 31Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-10
26.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3776% → 75%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
24.2%
Tiyon Evans run for 13 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
24.7%
Tiyon Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
24.7%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
25.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
25.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the BC 6Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
25.2%
James Turner 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1926% → 32%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.1%
Alex Broome run for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
27.3%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+57
32.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 57 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0070% → 68%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
30.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
30.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
30.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+1
31.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1433% → 33%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-7
33.0%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Momo Sanogo for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+10
31.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to George Takacs for 10 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
33.0%
Sam Candotti punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5166% → 63%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
33.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 3 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
33.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 6 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
33.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
36.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds , Zay Flowers returns for no gain to the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 1:2636% → 38%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
35.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 20 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
37.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-31
38.4%
Phil Jurkovec sacked for a loss of 31 yards to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2667% → 74%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
33.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Face mask (4 yards) (Josh DeBerry) to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Turner PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:4631% → 45%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Cam Barfield run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
30.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 18 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
32.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 17 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.2%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
44.5%
Alex Broome run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 2:1358% → 73%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
42.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 16 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
41.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
42.5%
CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Tyler thrown to the BC41. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on JONES, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the BC47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
39.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 23 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
38.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 23 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.9%
Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.5%
EVANS, Tiyon rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the BC2 (DEPALMA, Vinny;EZEIRUAKU, Donovan). PENALTY BC Offsides on JONES, Elijah enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the BC1 to the BC1 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.6%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5428% → 29%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
28.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Phil Jurkovec) to the BC 31Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
28.1%
Xavier Coleman run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+12
27.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 12 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
30.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 39Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+13
28.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 13 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4932% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.2%
Alex Broome run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
32.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Alex Broome for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
32.2%
Danny Longman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:0869% → 72%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
30.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
31.4%
CUNNINGHAM, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Tyler thrown to the UOL38. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on JONES, Elijah enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the UOL39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
29.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
29.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+2
29.5%
CUNNINGHAM, Malik scrambles up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UOL46, End of Play. PENALTY BC Unsportsmanlike Conduct enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the BC26 to the BC13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
27.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-10
27.8%
JORDAN, Jawhar rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the BC25 (OKPALA, Neto). PENALTY UOL Holding on REID, Trevor enforced 10 yards from the BC24 to the BC34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+3
29.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
30.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
28.0%
James Turner 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5628% → 47%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
47.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 69 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1756% → 77%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+18
43.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Chris Bell for 18 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
40.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
39.9%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 41Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+29
40.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 29 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4329% → 28%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.0%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
29.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaden Williams for 6 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
29.9%
Zay Flowers run for no gain to the BC 34Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Danny Longman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:4174% → 73%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
26.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-4
25.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
26.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
24.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Francis Sherman for 13 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
24.0%
JORDAN, Jawhar rush to the right for a gain of 48 yards to the BC0, TOUCHDOWN UOL, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UOL Chop Block on REID, Trevor enforced 15 yards from the BC48 to the UOL37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 25
OWN 37
-5
26.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay Of Game (M.J. Griffin) to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 30
OWN 32
+3
26.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Maurice Turner for 3 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 27
OWN 35
+8
26.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+5
26.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
27.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 6:0230% → 43%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
29.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
30.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
30.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
34.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+22
34.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 7 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jarvis Brownlee) to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
36.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
36.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+1
34.2%
Phil Jurkovec run for 1 yd to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
36.5%
Alex Broome run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 13
OPP 20
0
35.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Alex Broome for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
31.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
42.6%
Connor Lytton 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2863% → 68%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
36.7%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 19 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
33.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
32.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
32.4%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+2
33.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
32.5%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0044% → 74%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
44.2%
Phil Jurkovec run for 33 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
51.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaden Williams) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 2
OPP 20
0
51.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Dezmond Tell) to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
51.7%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
51.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
49.5%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
44.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Spencer Witter for 6 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
73.9%
Connor Lytton 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2333% → 17%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
DOMANN, Brock pass to the left incomplete intended for HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari broken up by JONES, Elijah at the UOL33. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on JONES, Elijah UOL Face mask on HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Brock Domann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.4%
PENALTY BC Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WOODBEY, Jaiden UOL Unsportsmanlike Conduct , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:02
3RD & 17
OPP 32
-8
94.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:56
Connor Lytton 26 yd FG GOOD
+29.1
TD · Q3 8:07
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 69 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)
+19
TD · Q3 4:50
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com