2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:56 · Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 4:29: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 3 yds for a TD, (DJ Uiagalelei pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion) — CLEM win probability +25.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:19: Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +23.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:16: Will Shipley run for 1 yd for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +28.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +38.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT2 0:00: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CLEM win probability +31.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:17WAKE 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q1 7:15WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 7Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:00CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it66.4%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q1 0:58WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snapGo for it32.4%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%average punt
- Q2 13:40CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 34, up 7Close callPunted · 67.4% before the snapGo for it67.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 12:56WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it30.8%−1.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q2 7:49CLEM 4th & 7 at WAKE 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snapGo for it68.5%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call68.8%91% to makePunt63.8%−5.0average punt
- Q2 0:14CLEM 4th & 13 at WAKE 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snapGo for it60.8%−2.519% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%74% to makePunt58.3%−5.0average punt
- Q3 13:33CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 47, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it68.4%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.9%average punt
- Q3 10:39CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 21, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it45.7%−2.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.4%average punt
- Q4 8:07WAKE 4th & 4 at CLEM 11, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.0%45% to convertField goalTheir call54.4%−1.687% to makePunt33.3%−22.7average punt
- Q4 4:01CLEM 4th & 4 at WAKE 35, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snapGo for it32.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call32.1%−0.745% to makePunt24.8%−8.0average punt
- Q4 0:39WAKE 4th & 5 at CLEM 48, tiedClose callPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it56.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 8:09CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.3%97% to makeGo for two66.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:09CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:13WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.5%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:49WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.7%97% to makeGo for two37.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:13WAKE Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.4%97% to makeGo for two45.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:47WAKE Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.2%97% to makeGo for two65.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:29CLEM Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick48.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call48.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:19WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.4%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:16CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.3%97% to makeGo for two45.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 2:2829% → 30%
CLEMDrive 2TD10 plays · 88 yds · 3:4670% → 71%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
30.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+15
30.8%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete to Ngata, Joseph, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
30.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
29.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 12 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4430% → 30%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
29.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5571% → 74%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 15 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
29.1%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete to Randall, Adam, PENALTY CLEMSON face mask 15 yards to the CLEMSON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 25
OWN 25
-2
29.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+30
30.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 30 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
26.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 41 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5127% → 31%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
27.3%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Greene, Donavon, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
27.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
28.0%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 49 Justice Ellison fumbled, forced by Trenton Simpson, recovered by WFrstSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+15
28.0%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
31.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0070% → 70%
Q1 2:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
30.5%
Aidan Swanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4630% → 30%
Q1 0:58
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
29.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 50 yds , Will Taylor returns for no gain to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1070% → 70%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+9
30.1%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 9 yds to the Clem 26 DJ Uiagalelei fumbled, forced by Kobie Turner, recovered by Clem Adam Randall for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
29.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+5
30.1%
Aidan Swanson punt for 40 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:2431% → 30%
CLEMDrive 10FG11 plays · 58 yds · 4:5170% → 73%
Q2 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+39
29.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 39 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5427% → 39%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.9%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
27.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
28.4%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Williams, Ke'Shawn, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul 15 yards to the CLEMSON32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+30
27.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 30 yds to the Clem 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12FG16 plays · 51 yds · 5:2165% → 70%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
34.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
34.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 4 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
34.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 6 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+12
33.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 12 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
31.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 14 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0770% → 70%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
29.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 19 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0733% → 53%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
35.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Ruke Orhorhoro for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 17
50
+22
33.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 22 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
52.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 28 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2152% → 48%
Q3 10:39
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
51.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 34 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WFrst 21 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3350% → 70%
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
49.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
52.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
54.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 23 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
55.3%
Hartman, Sam pass complete to Williams, Ke'Shawn for 6 yards to the CLEMSON18, PENALTY WAKEFOREST personal foul 15 yards to the CLEMSON39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 25
OPP 39
+15
53.1%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
69.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0135% → 62%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
64.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 11 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+28
66.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 28 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 3 yds for a TD, (DJ Uiagalelei pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0350% → 81%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.5%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Greene, Donavon, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
52.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
80.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5829% → 57%
WAKEDrive 21FG8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5254% → 72%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
56.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 46 yds to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22FG8 plays · 17 yds · 3:4940% → 52%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
60.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 4 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-9
60.7%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Malik Mustapha and Tyler Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+8
65.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 3:0658% → 61%
CLEMDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 76%
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
76.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 56%
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
82.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 4 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
43.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 90%
OT2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
10.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28Uncategorized4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 21 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-38.6
TD · OT2 0:00
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-31
TD · Q4 11:16
Will Shipley run for 1 yd for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-28.8