2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:11 · Vincent Davis run for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK), (Ben Sauls KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:50: Marques DeShields run for 1 yd for a TD, (Harrison Leonard KICK) — URI win probability +3.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:18: Israel Abanikanda run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:32: Israel Abanikanda run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:21: Kasim Hill pass complete to Darius Savedge for 15 yds for a TD, (Harrison Leonard KICK) — URI win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:11: Vincent Davis run for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK), (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +4.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4URI made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:18URI 4th & 8 at URI 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q1 10:30URI 4th & 13 at URI 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q1 8:45PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q1 6:50URI 4th & 3 at URI 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q1 0:00PITT 4th & 1 at URI 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.2%71% to convertField goal95.0%−0.256% to makePunt94.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:44URI 4th & 10 at URI 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 3:39PITT 4th & 7 at URI 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%85% to makePunt93.7%−1.5average punt
- Q3 9:12URI 4th & 4 at PITT 35, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%48% to convertField goal3.8%−0.545% to makePunt3.5%−0.8average punt
- Q3 0:56URI 4th & 14 at PITT 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.917% to convertField goalTheir call2.9%80% to makePunt0.0%−2.9average punt
- Q4 6:56URI 4th & 15 at URI 20, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 4:22PITT 4th & 1 at URI 4, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%65% to convertField goal99.1%−0.293% to makePunt98.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:21URI 4th & 10 at PITT 15, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.427% to convertField goal0.9%83% to makePunt0.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5URI made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 6:03PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:09URI Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.1%97% to makeGo for two4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:28PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:50URI Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.9%97% to makeGo for two5.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:18PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:32PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:21URI Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
- Q4 1:11PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartURIDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD6 plays · 2 yds · 2:422% → 3%
Q1 12:18
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+82
97.4%
Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 55 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 82 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:483% → 3%
Q1 10:30
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
97.2%
Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 39 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4597% → 97%
URIDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:553% → 3%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.0%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Jaylen Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the RIsld 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:4797% → 97%
URIDrive 6TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:543% → 4%
PITTDrive 7TD16 plays · 82 yds · 7:3597% → 97%
URIDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:404% → 4%
Q2 10:44
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-9
96.3%
Davey Schaum-Bartocci punt for 46 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 11 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaden Bradley) to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG14 plays · 72 yds · 7:0597% → 97%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
96.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 13
OWN 24
-10
96.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaden Bradley) to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+15
96.5%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the right incomplete intended for BRADLEY, Jaden thrown to the PIT35; QB hurried by FIRE, Jake. PENALTY URI Personal Foul on THOMAS, Matt enforced 15 yards from the PIT23 to the PIT38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
96.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 22 yds to the RIsld 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+5
96.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 5 yds to the RIsld 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:493% → 7%
Q2 3:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+45
96.6%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Paul Woods for 45 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
96.0%
HILL, Kasim pass to the right incomplete intended for SAVEDGE, Darius thrown to the PIT20. PENALTY PIT Face mask on TALLANDIER II, Judson enforced 15 yards from the PIT29 to the PIT14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
96.0%
HILL, Kasim pass to the left incomplete intended for SUMMERS, Kahtero thrown to the PIT2. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WOODS, A.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the PIT2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Marques DeShields run for 1 yd for a TD, (Harrison Leonard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3394% → 93%
PITTDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:4294% → 98%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
94.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 19 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
94.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 7 yds to the RIsld 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
94.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the RIsld 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 13FG19 plays · 61 yds · 8:164% → 5%
Q3 9:12
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+9
96.6%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Ed Lee for 9 yds to the RIsld 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
96.2%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Ed Lee for 6 yds to the RIsld 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+13
96.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Gabe Sloat for 13 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+6
96.2%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Kahtero Summers for 6 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
95.6%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Kahtero Summers for 16 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-8
96.0%
Kasim Hill sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD15 plays · 68 yds · 7:1997% → 99%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
96.8%
ABANIKANDA, Israel rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the PIT37 (FIRE, Jake). PENALTY PIT Holding on HOUY, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the PIT32 to the PIT22 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+8
96.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+10
96.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds Konata Mumpfield fumbled, recovered by Pitt Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
96.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the RIsld 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
97.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 2 yds to the RIsld 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
97.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 10 yds to the RIsld 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 4 yds to the RIsld 23Similar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
99.3%
SAULS, Ben PAT kick attempt is good, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY PIT Holding on JOHNSON, Karter enforced 10 yards from the URI3 to the URI13. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:361% → 1%
PITTDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 50 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
URIDrive 17TD11 plays · 96 yds · 3:011% → 5%
Q4 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+8
99.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Darius Savedge for 8 yds to the RIsld 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+23
99.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Caleb Warren for 23 yds to the RIsld 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
99.4%
Kasim Hill sacked by Sean FitzSimmons for a loss of 9 yards to the RIsld 30Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+21
99.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Kahtero Summers for 21 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
99.4%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Caleb Warren for 27 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+15
99.3%
HILL, Kasim pass to the left incomplete intended for SUMMERS, Kahtero thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on DEVONSHIRE, M.J. enforced 15 yards to the PIT15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+15
95.5%
Kasim Hill pass complete to Darius Savedge for 15 yds for a TD, (Harrison Leonard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD1 play · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Vincent Davis run for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK), (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Vincent Davis run for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK), (Ben Sauls KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q4 1:21
Kasim Hill pass complete to Darius Savedge for 15 yds for a TD, (Harrison Leonard KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q2 0:50
Marques DeShields run for 1 yd for a TD, (Harrison Leonard KICK)
-3.4