2022 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2022 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 1:50: Casey Legg 35 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +3.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:11: JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 24 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +15.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:19: William Ross 44 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +5.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:13: Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +14.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:36: Grant Wells pass intercepted for a TD Jacolby Spells return for 27 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:57WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snapGo for it53.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.2%average punt
- Q1 10:25VT 4th & 6 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it47.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:19WVU 4th & 6 at VT 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snapGo for it51.7%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call51.8%91% to makePunt49.8%−2.0average punt
- Q2 8:34VT 4th & 1 at WVU 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.5%71% to convertField goal53.2%−1.379% to makePunt49.1%−5.4average punt
- Q2 7:18WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snapGo for it43.3%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.6%average punt
- Q2 5:04VT 4th & 14 at VT 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snapGo for it52.3%−1.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
- Q2 1:50WVU 4th & 3 at VT 18, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snapGo for it45.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call45.2%−0.679% to makePunt40.5%−5.3average punt
- Q2 1:01VT 4th & 5 at VT 47, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it54.4%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.5%average punt
- Q3 13:35VT 4th & 4 at VT 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it40.0%−0.948% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%average punt
- Q3 9:31WVU 4th & 2 at VT 31, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.3%57% to convertField goal63.5%−1.854% to makePunt62.0%−3.3average punt
- Q3 7:04WVU 4th & 8 at VT 8, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snapGo for it63.7%−1.026% to convertField goalTheir call64.7%90% to makePunt54.6%−10.1average punt
- Q3 4:19VT 4th & 15 at WVU 27, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snapGo for it25.4%−2.817% to convertField goalTheir call28.2%62% to makePunt20.6%−7.7average punt
- Q4 13:10VT 4th & 8 at VT 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it16.3%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q4 10:16WVU 4th & 2 at VT 21, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.4%57% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−1.074% to makePunt84.7%−6.7average punt
- Q4 6:19VT 4th & 16 at WVU 35, down 23Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.216% to convertField goal1.4%45% to makePunt1.2%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:52VT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.0%97% to makeGo for two51.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:11WVU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.0%97% to makeGo for two59.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:13WVU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:36WVU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4854% → 53%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 1 yd to the WVirg 26Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
46.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 6 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
46.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 29Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DJ Harvey at the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0747% → 47%
WVUDrive 3FG19 plays · 92 yds · 6:5353% → 53%
Q1 8:59
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+5
47.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 5 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
47.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 13 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
47.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 16Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+15
47.9%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Ford-Wheaton, Bryce, PENALTY VATECH pass interference 15 yards to the WESTVIR34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+16
47.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
47.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
47.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 12 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
46.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+14
46.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 9 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (5 Yards) to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD11 plays · 77 yds · 3:0648% → 54%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
47.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Connor Blumrick for 12 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
47.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 6 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+17
48.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 17 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+15
48.2%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Blue, Jadan, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference 15 yards to the WESTVIR28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
54.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5FUMBLE10 plays · 40 yds · 3:1647% → 48%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
52.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Cortez Braham for 6 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
52.1%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Ford-Wheaton, Bryce, PENALTY VATECH pass interference 3 yards to the VATECH48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
52.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the VTech 35 Tony Mathis Jr. fumbled, recovered by VTech Dorian StrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6DOWNS8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4254% → 55%
Q2 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+21
54.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss for 21 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
55.9%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Moss, Christian, PENALTY WESTVIR roughing passer 15 yards to the WESTVIR27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
56.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 9 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0745% → 43%
VTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4856% → 55%
Q2 5:04
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+36
54.5%
Peter Moore punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 48 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9FG10 plays · 40 yds · 3:0645% → 49%
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
52.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 4 yds to the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4555% → 55%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
55.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 12 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
56.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 5 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+43
54.8%
Peter Moore punt for 53 yds for a touchback VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11TD7 plays · 70 yds · 0:4446% → 66%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
53.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 7 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+12
52.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 12 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
51.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 14 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
49.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
33.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 24 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FUMBLE5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1541% → 40%
WVUDrive 14FG15 plays · 79 yds · 6:2162% → 70%
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+15
38.1%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to James, Sam, PENALTY VATECH pass interference 15 yards to the WESTVIR30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
35.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 9 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+8
34.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
31.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 14 yds to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG12 plays · 50 yds · 2:2631% → 36%
Q3 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+9
32.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 9 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+20
32.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 20 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
33.1%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Gosnell, Stephen, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference 15 yards to the WESTVIR22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5267% → 88%
Q3 1:29
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+15
30.2%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Donaldson, CJ, PENALTY VATECH roughing passer 15 yards to the VATECH24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
27.1%
JT Daniels sacked by TyJuan Garbutt for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+14
28.7%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Prather, Kaden, PENALTY VATECH illegal use of hands 14 yards to the VATECH14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5718% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FG5 plays · 35 yds · 2:3590% → 93%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
10.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Reese Smith for 27 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19INT TD3 plays · -10 yds · 0:188% → 2%
VTDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 3:082% → 1%
Q4 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
2.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 10 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+20
2.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Chance Black for 20 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-6
1.6%
Grant Wells sacked by Taijh Alston for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21END OF GAME8 plays · 50 yds · 5:3199% → 100%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
1.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 8 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 24 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q4 14:13
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q4 9:36
Grant Wells pass intercepted for a TD Jacolby Spells return for 27 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)
-5.9