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PITT

Pittsburgh 34 at Western Michigan 13

WMU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:17 · Nick Mihalic punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−28.9Pregame prior−3.3Score differential−15.2Garbage-time factor−14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:26: Ben Sauls 48 Yd Field Goal — WMU win probability +3.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:39: Marquis Williams 22 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +4.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:30: Israel Abanikanda 4 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:23: A.J. Abbott 31 Yd pass from Anthony Sambucci (Palmer Domschke Kick) — WMU win probability +18.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:16: Konata Mumpfield 6 Yd pass from Nate Yarnell (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +15.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:26PITT 4th & 8 at WMU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:50WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:31WMU 4th & 9 at PITT 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:31PITT 4th & 5 at WMU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:17WMU 4th & 9 at PITT 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:19PITT 4th & 5 at WMU 9, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:19WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:39WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:53PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−3.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:19PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:19WMU 4th & 2 at PITT 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:17WMU 4th & 18 at WMU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:03WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 32, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:04WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 32, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:39PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:23WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:16PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:03PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 7:3475% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+17
24.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 17 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
24.8%
PENALTY PIT False Start 5 yards from WMU43 to WMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+1
24.8%
Nate Yarnell run for 1 yd to the WMich 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-5
24.8%
PENALTY PIT Delay Of Game (Yarnell,Nate) 5 yards from WMU46 to PIT49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+19
24.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 19 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+3
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+2
24.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
27.7%
Ben Sauls 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:2428% → 28%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 1 yd to the WMich 24Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
27.4%
PENALTY PIT Offside (Baldonado,Habakkuk) 5 yards from WMU24 to WMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
27.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
27.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Konata Mumpfield returns for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
27.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Konata Mumpfield returns for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1772% → 70%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
28.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
28.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
28.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+1
28.2%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
28.6%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 24Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
29.9%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-22
25.5%
Marquis Williams 22 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4926% → 25%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 36 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for no gain to the Pitt 36 Jaylon Barden fumbled, recovered by WMich Boone BonnemaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1926% → 28%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
26.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 21 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Holding (C'Bo Flemister) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
26.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Sean TylerSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
26.6%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
26.0%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to A.J. AbbottSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
27.5%
Palmer Domschke 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0073% → 74%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-13
27.2%
Mihalic,Nick kickoff 60 yards to the PIT05 Abanikanda,Israel return 13 yards to the PIT18 (Nobles,Joshua) PENALTY PIT Holding offsetting WMU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
26.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jared Wayne for 20 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
26.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jared Wayne for 20 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
25.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jared Wayne for 39 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
25.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the WMich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
25.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
25.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the WMich 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
25.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the WMich 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
25.7%
Nate Yarnell pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
26.0%
Ben Sauls 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:1424% → 23%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
23.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 16 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
24.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
24.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Salopek,Jack pass incomplete short right to Galloway,Jehlani PENALTY PIT Pass Interference (Woods,A.J.) 15 yards from WMU43 to PIT42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
25.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+13
25.0%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 13 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
25.6%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 9 yds to the Pitt 33 Mareyohn Hrabowski fumbled, recovered by WMich Mareyohn HrabowskiSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+8
25.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+2
24.6%
Jack Salopek run for 2 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
23.3%
Palmer Domschke 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:5877% → 81%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
23.0%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
22.6%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
22.1%
Vincent Davis run for 14 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
22.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+35
20.3%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jared Wayne for 35 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
20.2%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
18.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the WMich 9Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
18.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
18.9%
Ben Sauls 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4022% → 21%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
22.0%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Deatherage,Dylan) 5 yards from WMU20 to WMU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
21.9%
Jack Salopek run for no gain to the WMich 15Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
21.9%
Jack Salopek run for no gain to the WMich 15Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
21.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the WMich 15Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
21.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
21.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:3983% → 84%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
17.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
16.2%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0721% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
21.1%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
21.0%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+9
20.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 9 yds to the WMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
21.3%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
21.2%
Jack Salopek pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
20.8%
Jack Salopek pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3482% → 82%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
17.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
17.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incomplete to Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-9
18.2%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Ryan Selig for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+12
19.1%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 42 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 12 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+12
17.6%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 42 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 12 yds to the WMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14INT
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:4022% → 19%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
21.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
22.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
22.2%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
23.3%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+4
21.9%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
21.5%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
23.3%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
23.2%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 4 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+18
22.0%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 18 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
23.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Pitt 7Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
23.2%
Jack Salopek sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
21.1%
Jack Salopek pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
19.2%
Jack Salopek pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:0986% → 92%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
13.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
14.2%
Shotgun Yarnell,Nate pass incomplete short middle to Bartholomew,Gavin, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Ware,Delano) 6 yards from PIT24 to PIT30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
13.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 18 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
12.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 9 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
12.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+37
12.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 37 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.2%
Israel Abanikanda 4 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0713% → 33%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
12.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 44 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
15.5%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
33.4%
A.J. Abbott 31 Yd pass from Anthony Sambucci (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 7:0776% → 97%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
24.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
23.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
23.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
23.4%
Daniel Carter run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
20.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
19.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
18.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
18.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
18.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+3
18.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
18.2%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+21
18.0%
Vincent Davis run for 21 yds to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.9%
Konata Mumpfield 6 Yd pass from Nate Yarnell (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:597% → 6%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
6.6%
Jack Salopek sacked by Solomon DeShields for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
5.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:1497% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
3.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+23
3.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 23 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
2.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
2.7%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+17
2.7%
Vincent Davis run for 17 yds to the WMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
2.7%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the WMich 7Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
2.6%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
0.3%
Daniel Carter 3 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.9%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
0.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.9%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 3 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 34 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 34 yds , Jaylon Barden returns for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
0.3%
Nate Yarnell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
0.3%
Nate Yarnell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:23
A.J. Abbott 31 Yd pass from Anthony Sambucci (Palmer Domschke Kick)
+18
TD · Q4 8:16
Konata Mumpfield 6 Yd pass from Nate Yarnell (Ben Sauls Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q3 1:30
Israel Abanikanda 4 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com