2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:09 · Atkins Roberts punt for 50 yds , DJ Harvey returns for 4 yds to the VTech 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 3:46: William Ross 46 yd FG GOOD — WOF win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:51: William Ross 41 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: Jadan Blue 11 Yd pass from Grant Wells (William Ross Kick) — VT win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:48: J. Holston run for 1 yd for a TD, (W. Ross KICK) — VT win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:57: Bryce Duke 27 Yd pass from Grant Wells (William Ross Kick) — VT win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WOF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 3:46VT 4th & 16 at WOF 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%58% to makePunt96.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:51VT 4th & 5 at WOF 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%68% to makePunt96.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:45VT 4th & 1 at WOF 22, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%71% to convertField goal97.9%−0.172% to makePunt97.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:34WOF 4th & 2 at WOF 42, down 6Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:09WOF 4th & 5 at WOF 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 11:24WOF 4th & 1 at WOF 46, down 6Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:17WOF 4th & 23 at WOF 33, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 11:07VT 4th & 8 at midfield, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q3 1:22WOF 4th & 5 at midfield, down 20Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:32WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 31, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 7:14WOF 4th & 19 at WOF 20, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 5:18VT 4th & 9 at VT 45, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 7:31VT 4th & 1 at VT 31, up 20Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:39WOF 4th & 3 at WOF 43, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 0:25VT Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:57VT Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1FG7 plays · 44 yds · 2:4497% → 97%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
97.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 19 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
97.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 20 yds to the Woffd 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+4
97.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss for 4 yds to the Woffd 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0697% → 97%
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
96.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 8 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 17 yds to the Woffd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+17
96.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss for 17 yds to the Woffd 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3DOWNS22 plays · 55 yds · 9:4598% → 97%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 5 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith, broken up by Okachi EmmanworiSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
96.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss for 18 yds to the VATECH 47 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Kaden Moore) to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss for 5 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 5 yds to the Woffd 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+16
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Connor Blumrick for 16 yds to the Woffd 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 5 yds to the Woffd 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
96.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Chance Black, broken up by David PowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 8:292% → 3%
Q1 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
97.8%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 7 yds to the Woffd 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
97.7%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Jordan Davis for 4 yds to the Woffd 38Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
97.6%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 4 yds to the Woffd 42Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Jimmy Weirick pass incomplete to Landon Parker, broken up by Dorian StrongSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+3
97.6%
Atkins Roberts punt for 34 yds , DJ Harvey returns for 3 yds to the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 3:093% → 3%
WOFDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 3:274% → 4%
VTDrive 7TD10 plays · 64 yds · 2:5297% → 99%
Q2 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss for 6 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 15 yds to the Woffd 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 11 yds to the Woffd 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 9 yds to the Woffd 15Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
96.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 2 yds to the Woffd 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD14 plays · 82 yds · 9:5399% → 99%
Q2 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+15
98.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith for a 1ST down WOFFORD Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Amir Annoor) to the Woffd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-10
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Christian Moss VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Parker Clements) to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 19
OWN 49
+29
98.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 29 yds to the Woffd 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Woffd 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 3:172% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
98.5%
David Legette run for 6 yds to the Woffd 31 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brion Murray) to the Woffd 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2599% → 99%
WOFDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 44 yds · 3:531% → 1%
Q3 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+20
98.7%
Nathan Walker run for 5 yds to the Woffd 20 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, illegal use of hands (Kyree Moyston) to the Woffd 35Similar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
98.6%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Jordan Davis for 10 yds to the Woffd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.8%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Dylan Djete for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 13:321% → 1%
WOFDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 7:141% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 5:1899% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 4 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
99.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 10 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Christian Moss, broken up by Amir AnnoorSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick Gallo, broken up by John Michael DiRobertoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:2999% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+24
99.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 24 yds to the Woffd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+24
99.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 24 yds to the Woffd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+13
99.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 13 yds to the Woffd 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 17TD7 plays · 75 yds · 10:521% → 1%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-6
99.1%
WOFFORD Penalty, illegal formation (Devin Mathews) to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
99.2%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Landon Parker for 7 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.5%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Landon Parker for 14 yds to the Woffd 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
99.5%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Landon Parker for 47 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 7:3199% → 100%
Q4 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+1
99.2%
Peter Moore punt for 58 yds , RJ Khayo returns for 1 yd to the Woffd 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 31 yds · 6:511% → 1%
Q4 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.5%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 7 yds to the Woffd 43Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.5%
Atkins Roberts punt for 40 yds , DJ Harvey returns for 4 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+24
99.5%
Jimmy Weirick pass complete to Landon Parker for 24 yds to the Woffd 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20END OF GAME9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3599% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
Jadan Blue 11 Yd pass from Grant Wells (William Ross Kick)
+1.9
TD · Q4 12:57
Bryce Duke 27 Yd pass from Grant Wells (William Ross Kick)
+0.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+0.5