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NCAT

North Carolina A&T 20 at Duke 49

DUKE
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCAT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCAT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:01 · C.Brickhouse punts 48 yards to DUK 27, Center-B.Ruddy. J.Calhoun returned punt from the DUK 27. Tackled by NAT at NAT 49.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense+29.2Score differential+24.5Blowout margin+12.1Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:16: R.Leonard pass complete to NAT 4. Catch made by J.Moore at NAT 4. Gain of 4 yards. J.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — DUKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:06: J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler sacked at NAT 35 for -6 yards (A.Peebles) J.Fowler FUMBLES, forced by A.Peebles. Fumble RECOVERED by DUK-D.Carter at NAT 35. D.Carter for yards, TOUCHDOWN. — DUKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 13:45: A.Brown 21 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Ruddy, Holder-NAT. — NCAT win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:17: A.Brown 41 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Ruddy, Holder-NAT. — DUKE win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:40: R.Leonard rushed to NAT End Zone for 56 yards. R.Leonard for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — DUKE win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCAT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:25NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35DUKE 4th & 3 at NCAT 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:45NCAT 4th & 4 at DUKE 4, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:33NCAT 4th & 16 at NCAT 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:17NCAT 4th & 10 at DUKE 23, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:01NCAT 4th & 10 at NCAT 25, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:04NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 49, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 16 at NCAT 45, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCAT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:51DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:16DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:43DUKE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:40DUKE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:44DUKE Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:10NCAT Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:48DUKE Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:15NCAT Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.5%
PENALTY on DUK-DUK, Delay of Game, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+38
97.5%
R.Leonard pass complete to NAT 38. Catch made by N.Dalmolin at NAT 38. Gain of 38 yards. N.Dalmolin for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:203% → 3%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.5%
W.Graves rushed to NAT 29 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 29.Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.4%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for J.Warren.Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
97.4%
J.Fowler pass complete to NAT 29. Catch made by B.Tuten at NAT 29. Gain of -3 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 26.Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+43
97.3%
C.Brickhouse punts 43 yards to DUK 31, Center-B.Ruddy. J.Calhoun returned punt from the DUK 31. Tackled by NAT at DUK 48.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:5897% → 97%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
97.3%
J.Waters rushed to DUK 47 for -1 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 47.Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+4
97.3%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 49 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 49.Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+4
97.2%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 45 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 45.Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+4
97.1%
R.Leonard scrambles to NAT 41 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 41.Similar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
97.1%
R.Leonard pass complete to NAT 41. Catch made by J.Moore at NAT 41. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 27.Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.1%
PENALTY on DUK-M.McIntyre, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+15
97.1%
R.Leonard pass complete to NAT 32. Catch made by J.Robertson at NAT 32. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 17.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
97.0%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 5 for 12 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 5.Similar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.0%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 5 for 0 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 5.Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
96.9%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 4 for 1 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 4.Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.2%
R.Leonard pass complete to NAT 4. Catch made by J.Moore at NAT 4. Gain of 4 yards. J.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:063% → 2%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.1%
B.Tuten rushed to NAT 34 for 9 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 34.Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
97.0%
B.Tuten rushed to NAT 41 for 7 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 41.Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.6%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler sacked at NAT 35 for -6 yards (A.Peebles) J.Fowler FUMBLES, forced by A.Peebles. Fumble RECOVERED by DUK-D.Carter at NAT 35. D.Carter for yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 5FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 8:082% → 3%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
B.Tuten rushed to NAT 26 for 1 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 26.Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
97.6%
J.Fowler pass complete to NAT 26. Catch made by J.Warren at NAT 26. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 31.Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
97.6%
J.Fowler pass complete to NAT 31. Catch made by B.Tuten at NAT 31. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 38.Similar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
97.6%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler sacked at NAT 37 for -1 yards (J.Stinson)Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+7
97.6%
T.Cooke rushed to NAT 44 for 7 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 44.Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+4
97.6%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 48 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 48.Similar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.6%
W.Graves rushed to DUK 47 for 5 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 47.Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
97.6%
W.Graves rushed to DUK 43 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 43.Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
97.6%
R.Kimbrough rushed to DUK 41 for 2 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 41. PENALTY on DUK-M.Reese, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
97.6%
J.Fowler pass complete to DUK 26. Catch made by Z.Leslie at DUK 26. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 8.Similar
Q1 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
97.6%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 9 for -1 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 9.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
97.6%
J.Fowler rushed to DUK 6 for 3 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 6.Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
97.7%
J.Fowler pass complete to DUK 6. Catch made by J.Warren at DUK 6. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 4.Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
96.8%
A.Brown 21 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Ruddy, Holder-NAT.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:4197% → 97%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.1%
R.Leonard rushed to DUK 31 for 0 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 31.Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
97.1%
R.Leonard pass complete to DUK 31. Catch made by J.Moore at DUK 31. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 38.Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
97.1%
R.Leonard pass complete to DUK 38. Catch made by E.Pancol at DUK 38. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 45.Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
97.2%
J.Coleman rushed to DUK 46 for 1 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 46.Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
97.1%
R.Leonard pass complete to DUK 46. Catch made by J.Moore at DUK 46. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 44.Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+41
97.2%
R.Leonard pass complete to NAT 44. Catch made by S.Hagans at NAT 44. Gain of 41 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 3.Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.1%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 2 for 1 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 2.Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.9%
R.Leonard rushed to NAT End Zone for 2 yards. R.Leonard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 4:083% → 3%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.8%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 27 for 2 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 27.Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
96.7%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 31 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 31.Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
96.9%
E.Brickhandler pass complete to NAT 31. Catch made by Z.Leslie at NAT 31. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 41.Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.8%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 45 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 45.Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-5
96.7%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 40 for -5 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 40.Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
97.2%
PENALTY on NAT-E.Bowick, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
97.0%
E.Brickhandler steps back to pass. E.Brickhandler pass incomplete intended for J.Warren.Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+42
96.7%
C.Brickhouse punts 42 yards to DUK 23, Center-B.Ruddy. Fair catch by J.Calhoun.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8INT
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0898% → 99%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
98.4%
R.Leonard pass complete to DUK 23. Catch made by J.Waters at DUK 23. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 33.Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.4%
R.Leonard pass complete to DUK 33. Catch made by J.Moore at DUK 33. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 35.Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
98.5%
J.Waters rushed to DUK 39 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 39.Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
98.5%
R.Leonard pass complete to DUK 39. Catch made by S.Hagans at DUK 39. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 46.Similar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.6%
R.Leonard rushed to DUK 50 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 50.Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 6
OPP 0
+14
98.1%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 36 for 14 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 36.Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-23
98.6%
R.Leonard pass INTERCEPTED at NAT 9. Intercepted by A.Cole at NAT 9. Tackled by DUK at NAT 32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 9FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 1:503% → 2%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
97.0%
J.Fowler pass complete to NAT 32. Catch made by Z.Leslie at NAT 32. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 47.Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.8%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for NAT.Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.9%
PENALTY on DUK-DUK, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
96.7%
PENALTY on NAT-T.Stewart, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
96.9%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for G.Caldwell. PENALTY on DUK-D.Young, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.7%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for B.Tuten.Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
96.7%
J.Fowler pass complete to DUK 38. Catch made by S.Berkhalter at DUK 38. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 29.Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
96.3%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 23 for 6 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 23.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.3%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for S.Berkhalter.Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
96.4%
J.Fowler rushed to DUK 23 for 0 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 23.Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
96.6%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for J.Warren.Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
98.0%
A.Brown 41 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Ruddy, Holder-NAT.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.1%
B.Tuten rushed to NAT 23 for -2 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 23.Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
98.1%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler pass incomplete intended for G.Caldwell.Similar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+36
98.2%
J.Fowler pass complete to NAT 23. Catch made by G.Caldwell at NAT 23. Gain of 36 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 41.Similar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.9%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 37 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 37.Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-7
98.0%
J.Fowler steps back to pass. J.Fowler sacked at DUK 44 for -7 yards (B.Johnson) J.Fowler FUMBLES, forced by B.Johnson. Fumble RECOVERED by DUK-V.Anthony at DUK 44. Tackled by NAT at DUK 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:3499% → 100%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.5%
J.Waters rushed to DUK 44 for 0 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 44.Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.6%
R.Leonard rushed to NAT End Zone for 56 yards. R.Leonard for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.6%
B.Tuten rushed to NAT 21 for -4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 21.Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
99.6%
W.Graves rushed to NAT 25 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 25.Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
E.Brickhandler steps back to pass. E.Brickhandler pass incomplete intended for J.Warren.Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+48
99.7%
C.Brickhouse punts 48 yards to DUK 27, Center-B.Ruddy. J.Calhoun returned punt from the DUK 27. Tackled by NAT at NAT 49.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
99.7%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 20 for 29 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 20.Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.7%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 12 for 8 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 12.Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
99.7%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 12 for 0 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 12.Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT End Zone for 12 yards. J.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:300% → 0%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 24 for -1 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 24.Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
99.8%
E.Brickhandler pass complete to NAT 24. Catch made by J.Warren at NAT 24. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 23.Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
99.8%
E.Brickhandler pass complete to NAT 23. Catch made by W.Graves at NAT 23. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 35.Similar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.8%
W.Graves rushed to NAT 44 for 9 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 44.Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
99.8%
W.Graves rushed to NAT 48 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 48.Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.8%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 48 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 48.Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-3
99.8%
E.Brickhandler steps back to pass. E.Brickhandler sacked at NAT 49 for -3 yards (DUK)Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
E.Brickhandler steps back to pass. E.Brickhandler pass incomplete intended for G.Caldwell.Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
C.Brickhouse rushed to NAT 50 for 1 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 50.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+8
99.8%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 42 for 8 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 42.Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
99.8%
J.Coleman rushed to NAT 35 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 35. PENALTY on DUK-DUK, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
99.8%
H.Belin pass complete to NAT 48. Catch made by J.Calhoun at NAT 48. Gain of yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 44. PENALTY on NAT-J.Armstrong-Grady, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
99.8%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 41 for 2 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 41.Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.8%
J.Waters rushed to NAT 38 for 3 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 38.Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
99.9%
H.Belin steps back to pass. H.Belin sacked at NAT 47 for -9 yards (C.Jones)Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 18
OPP 46
0
99.9%
H.Belin steps back to pass. H.Belin pass incomplete intended for J.Calhoun.Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
H.Belin pass complete to NAT 47. Catch made by J.Coleman at NAT 47. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 45.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 45
+42
99.8%
P.Wilson punts 42 yards to NAT 3, Center-E.Deckers. Downed by D.Harding.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 16TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
99.9%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 9 for 6 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 9.Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+48
99.9%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 43 for 48 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 43.Similar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 41 for 2 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 41.Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+21
99.9%
E.Brickhandler pass complete to DUK 41. Catch made by W.Graves at DUK 41. Gain of 21 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 20.Similar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.9%
C.Dixon rushed to DUK 8 for 12 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 8.Similar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
C.Dixon rushed to DUK End Zone for 8 yards. C.Dixon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 4:12100% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
H.Belin pass complete to DUK 33. Catch made by D.Harding at DUK 33. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 41.Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-3
99.9%
H.Belin rushed to DUK 38 for -3 yards. H.Belin FUMBLES. Fumble RECOVERED by DUK-H.Belin at DUK 38. Tackled by NAT at DUK 38.Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
H.Belin pass complete to DUK 38. Catch made by D.Harding at DUK 38. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 46.Similar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
99.9%
H.Belin rushed to DUK 42 for -4 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 42.Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+42
99.9%
J.Moore rushed to NAT 16 for 42 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 16.Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
E.Weatherly rushed to NAT 14 for 2 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 14.Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
E.Weatherly rushed to NAT End Zone for 14 yards. E.Weatherly for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 18TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
99.9%
E.Brickhandler rushed to NAT 24 for 8 yards. Tackled by DUK at NAT 24.Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+55
100.0%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 21 for 55 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 21.Similar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.9%
E.Brickhandler rushed to DUK 18 for 3 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 18.Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
99.9%
W.Graves rushed to DUK 12 for 6 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 12.Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
W.Graves rushed to DUK 5 for 7 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 5.Similar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK 1 for 4 yards. Tackled by DUK at DUK 1.Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
B.Tuten rushed to DUK End Zone for yards. B.Tuten for yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NAT-NAT, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
E.Brickhandler pass complete to DUK 6. Catch made by R.Kimbrough at DUK 6. Gain of 6 yards. R.Kimbrough for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19END OF GAME
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
J.Moore rushed to DUK 39 for 4 yards. Tackled by NAT at DUK 39.Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+18
99.9%
H.Belin pass complete to DUK 39. Catch made by L.Diamont at DUK 39. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 43.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
H.Belin pass complete to NAT 43. Catch made by N.Lampert at NAT 43. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 36.Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
100.0%
J.Moore rushed to NAT 34 for 2 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 34.Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+7
100.0%
J.Moore rushed to NAT 27 for 7 yards. Tackled by NAT at NAT 27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:17
A.Brown 41 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Ruddy, Holder-NAT.
+1.4
TD · Q3 12:40
R.Leonard rushed to NAT End Zone for 56 yards. R.Leonard for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+1.1
FG · Q2 13:45
A.Brown 21 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Ruddy, Holder-NAT.
-0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com