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FSU

Florida State 35 at Louisville 31

LOU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2022 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:30: Trevion Cooley 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +9.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:58: Lawrance Toafili 15 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:25: Malik Cunningham 18 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — LOU win probability +22.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:24: Johnny Wilson 10 Yd pass from Tate Rodemaker (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +35.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:54: Johnny Wilson 2 Yd pass from Tate Rodemaker (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +37.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:59LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:18LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40FSU 4th & 3 at LOU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:46LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:38LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:53FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:44FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:51FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:16LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:05LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:07LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:55LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:44FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−3.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:58LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:24FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−4.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:45LOU 4th & 8 at FSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−16.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:18LOU 4th & 2 at FSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−6.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−6.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:42LOU 4th & 2 at FSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−6.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−6.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:44FSU 4th & 5 at LOU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−12.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:52LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.7%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:01FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:28LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:23LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:15FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:30LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:58FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:25LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:24FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:54FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3041% → 42%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
41.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
41.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+3
41.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
41.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
41.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0759% → 60%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
41.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 41 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
41.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-2
41.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+18
41.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 18 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.3%
Preston Daniel 2 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2241% → 44%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
40.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 20 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
41.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
50
+4
41.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+14
41.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
41.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+14
41.5%
Cunningham, Malik pass incomplete to Huggins-Bruce, Ahmari, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Green, Renardo) 14 yards to the FLORIDAST13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
41.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
44.0%
Malik Cunningham 8 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:3557% → 56%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
43.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
42.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Trey Benson) to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+23
43.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 23 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
42.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 5 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-3
42.6%
Darion Williamson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+26
43.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 26 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
42.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 4 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
42.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 3 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
42.9%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
43.7%
Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1044% → 51%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
44.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 24 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
45.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+21
45.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 21 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
46.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
46.7%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
46.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
51.2%
Trevion Cooley 17 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0450% → 57%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+46
49.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 46 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
42.6%
Malik McClain 21 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:3846% → 49%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
45.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
45.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
46.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
47.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
48.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
48.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
48.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
49.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Akeem Dent) to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-11
49.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 0
OPP 17
+8
50.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 8 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 0
OPP 9
+15
48.6%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 10 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Derrick McLendon II , return for 15 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 0
OPP 9
+15
48.8%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 10 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Derrick McLendon II , return for 15 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3454% → 54%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.9%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
44.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
45.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Jazston Turnetine) to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
46.4%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Rance Conner return for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
46.4%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Rance Conner return for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:0550% → 47%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
49.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
49.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
48.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 11
OPP 46
-5
47.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
46.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
46.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4954% → 53%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
46.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
45.7%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
46.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+34
47.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 33 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+34
47.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 33 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0851% → 61%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
50.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+11
51.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
51.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+14
51.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
51.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.2%
Trevion Cooley 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3242% → 39%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
57.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-10
58.8%
Jordan Travis sacked by YaYa Diaby for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 22
OWN 24
0
60.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+2
60.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds , Braden Smith returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1460% → 64%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
60.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 15
OWN 22
-5
59.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+10
60.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
60.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
61.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
62.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Bryan Hudson) to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+10
61.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 10 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the Lvile 48 Jawhar Jordan fumbled, forced by DJ Lundy, recovered by FlaSt Tatum BethuneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5543% → 39%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
56.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 28 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
55.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Treshaun Ward for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 16
OPP 26
-10
57.4%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 36 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tate Rodemaker) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 26
OPP 36
-20
61.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Yasir Abdullah return for 20 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 26
OPP 36
-20
61.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Yasir Abdullah return for 20 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2365% → 61%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
64.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
50
-5
65.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Derrick McLendon II for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
62.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+4
61.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 4 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+4
61.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 4 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
62.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5638% → 56%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
61.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
59.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
59.3%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
59.5%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
60.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 12 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
58.3%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 14
OPP 30
0
61.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+5
64.0%
Rodemaker, Tate pass complete to Wilson, Johnny for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE27, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside (Abdullah, Yasir) 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+10
61.9%
Tate Rodemaker run for 10 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
43.6%
Lawrance Toafili 15 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:4653% → 53%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
52.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+1
53.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
52.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
55.6%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
54.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
52.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 55 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
52.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 55 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0450% → 48%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
49.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-4
49.6%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Dezmond Tell for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+12
52.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds , Braden Smith returns for 12 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4157% → 55%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
56.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
58.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
56.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tyler Hudson) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
54.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2950% → 46%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
50.3%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
50.7%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
52.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
53.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:4757% → 85%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
56.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 40 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
62.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
85.0%
Malik Cunningham 18 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4724% → 56%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
75.7%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Yasir Abdullah and YaYa Diaby for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+69
78.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 69 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
43.7%
Johnny Wilson 10 Yd pass from Tate Rodemaker (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2756% → 70%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
55.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 55 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
62.9%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+4
62.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
61.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
69.8%
James Turner 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4434% → 75%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
65.8%
Rodemaker, Tate pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
63.1%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+12
61.7%
Trey Benson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
60.6%
Trey Benson run for 37 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (1 yards) (Monty Montgomery) to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.3%
Wyatt Rector run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
62.6%
Mycah Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.2%
Johnny Wilson 2 Yd pass from Tate Rodemaker (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:0640% → 38%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
42.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
39.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
42.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
50
+2
43.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
43.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
41.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
37.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:5379% → 90%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
21.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+15
20.9%
Rodemaker, Tate pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
19.4%
Ward, Treshaun rush for 13 yards to the LOUISVILLE25, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Washington, Darius) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+25
18.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 25 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
14.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
10.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+3
8.9%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
10.5%
Ryan Fitzgerald 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:0224% → 20%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
24.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
23.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 12 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
21.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
19.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+4
19.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 4 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
23.3%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Kevin Knowles II return for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
19.7%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Kevin Knowles II return for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
5.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:54
Johnny Wilson 2 Yd pass from Tate Rodemaker (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
-37.4
TD · Q4 13:24
Johnny Wilson 10 Yd pass from Tate Rodemaker (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
-35
TD · Q4 14:25
Malik Cunningham 18 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)
+22.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com