2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:20 · William Ross 38 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 0:48: W. Ross 49 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +0.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 11:04: J. Holston run for 1 yd for a TD, (W. Ross KICK), (W. Ross KICK) — BC win probability +4.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:50: Keshawn King 65 Yd Run (William Ross Kick) — VT win probability +1.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:22: Connor Lytton 30 Yd Field Goal — VT win probability +1.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:18: Jaden Williams 17 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Connor Lytton Kick) — BC win probability +12.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10BC made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 7:39VT 4th & 20 at VT 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.2%−0.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q1 6:44BC 4th & 9 at BC 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it36.9%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q1 0:48VT 4th & 21 at BC 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snapGo for it62.4%−1.19% to convertField goalTheir call63.5%54% to makePunt62.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 11:04VT 4th & 1 at BC 1, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.0%59% to convertField goal60.6%−0.494% to makePunt59.6%−1.4average punt
- Q1 9:38BC 4th & 4 at BC 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it38.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.5%average punt
- Q2 14:01BC 4th & 7 at BC 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.3%−1.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q2 12:00BC 4th & 20 at BC 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it25.8%−2.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q2 10:55VT 4th & 13 at VT 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it71.3%−1.820% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%average punt
- Q2 7:02VT 4th & 1 at BC 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.6%71% to convertField goal73.1%−2.551% to makePunt72.1%−3.5average punt
- Q2 5:44BC 4th & 15 at BC 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snapGo for it22.2%−2.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%average punt
- Q2 4:47VT 4th & 10 at VT 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snapGo for it74.4%−1.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q2 0:22BC 4th & 3 at VT 13, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.550% to convertField goalTheir call10.9%85% to makePunt6.8%−4.2average punt
- Q2 8:32BC 4th & 11 at BC 3, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it12.9%−2.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q3 10:54BC 4th & 13 at BC 5, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it5.0%−2.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q3 12:12VT 4th & 5 at VT 49, up 14Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it83.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:57BC 4th & 15 at BC 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it7.1%−1.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.9%average punt
- Q4 9:48VT 4th & 1 at VT 40, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 2:46BC 4th & 12 at BC 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 8:25BC 4th & 13 at BC 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it2.7%−1.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q4 4:20VT 4th & 11 at BC 21, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.425% to convertField goalTheir call97.6%74% to makePunt96.1%−1.5average punt
- Q4 1:30VT 4th & 5 at VT 35, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q4 0:11BC 4th & 12 at BC 42, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−<0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 5:18BC Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.7%97% to makeGo for two10.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1INT11 plays · 0 yds · 0:4354% → 54%
VTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5556% → 57%
Q1 8:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
56.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4943% → 42%
VTDrive 4FG4 plays · 48 yds · 5:4958% → 60%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
57.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 17 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD6 plays · 10 yds · 11:0456% → 62%
BCDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 9:3844% → 38%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
62.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to George Takacs for 4 yds to the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5939% → 29%
Q2 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
70.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Alec Sinkfield for 5 yds to the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD1 play · 65 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:5033% → 32%
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
67.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Cam Barfield for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
68.4%
Danny Longman punt for 50 yds , DJ Harvey returns for no gain to the VTech 32 DJ Harvey fumbled, recovered by VTech Tink Boyd , return for no gain to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5170% → 69%
VTDrive 11DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2674% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT2 plays · -5 yds · 1:1228% → 27%
VTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 5:4474% → 91%
BCDrive 14FG6 plays · 65 yds · 4:2515% → 12%
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
87.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay Flowers for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference (8 Yards) to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 9:5718% → 10%
Q2 9:18
3RD & 13
OWN 1
+2
82.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 2 yds to the BC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:188% → 7%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-6
91.6%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 2 Pat Garwo III fumbled, recovered by BC Pat Garwo IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2193% → 94%
BCDrive 19TD2 plays · 86 yds · 2:116% → 18%
VTDrive 20TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:4987% → 92%
VTDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 12:1281% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
92.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Drake De Iuliis for 2 yds to the VTech 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22Uncategorized5 plays · 15 yds · 15:0011% → 4%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
89.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 4 yds to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT3 plays · 9 yds · 2:0994% → 95%
BCDrive 24PUNT3 plays · -2 yds · 1:342% → 2%
BCDrive 25Uncategorized4 plays · 3 yds · 8:254% → 2%
VTDrive 26FG9 plays · 23 yds · 5:0998% → 99%
Q4 5:09
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+13
97.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Connor Blumrick for 13 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
98.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Connor Blumrick for 4 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
98.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick Gallo for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaiden Woodbey) to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:3698% → 99%
BCDrive 28Uncategorized6 plays · -9 yds · 0:112% → 2%
Q4 0:11
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+3
98.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Xavier Coleman for 3 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
98.0%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 9 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
98.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
98.2%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Xavier Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:18
Jaden Williams 17 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Connor Lytton Kick)
-12.3
TD · Q1 11:04
J. Holston run for 1 yd for a TD, (W. Ross KICK), (W. Ross KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 13:50
Keshawn King 65 Yd Run (William Ross Kick)
+1.5