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USM

Southern Miss 7 at Miami 30

MIA
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:41 · Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MiaFl 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+16.6Home team on offense+21.7Score differential+8.7Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:30: Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 32 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +1.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:22: Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 01:22 — USM win probability +1.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +4.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:10: Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +6.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:56: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 35 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:19MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:53USM 4th & 7 at MIA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:39MIA 4th & 9 at USM 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:48MIA 4th & 4 at USM 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13USM 4th & 17 at MIA 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:45MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:12USM 4th & 4 at USM 29, up 4
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:21USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:02USM 4th & 11 at USM 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:11MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:41USM 4th & 9 at USM 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:11MIA 4th & 6 at USM 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:34MIA 4th & 8 at USM 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:09USM 4th & 16 at USM 19, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:11MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 37, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:30USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:20MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:10MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:56MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
95.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
95.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 5:075% → 6%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.4%
Antavious Willis run for no gain to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
95.4%
Zach Wilcke run for 9 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
95.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
95.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+9
95.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 9 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
94.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-4
94.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
94.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
50
0
94.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Chandler PittmanSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
50
0
94.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
50
+3
94.3%
Zach Wilcke run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
94.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:0794% → 93%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+30
94.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+8
94.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
94.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
94.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
94.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
93.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 8 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
93.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
93.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
93.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
93.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
93.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-2
93.2%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
92.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
92.9%
Andres Borregales 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:027% → 10%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.9%
Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
92.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
92.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Cole Cavallo) to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
92.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Te'Cory Couch) to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
92.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 4
50
0
92.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
50
+18
92.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 18 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
90.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 32 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5INT
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:3791% → 90%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
90.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
50
+5
90.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
90.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
90.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
90.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 6 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
90.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
90.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-16
89.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Malik Shorts return for 16 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:2911% → 13%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.9%
Janari Dean run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+36
88.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 36 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
87.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-8
87.5%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Jacob Lichtenstein for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 23
OPP 45
+4
87.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 19
OPP 41
+2
86.6%
Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
86.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 16 yds, downed at the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:2287% → 84%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
86.7%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Armondous Cooley) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
87.5%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+3
86.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-5
85.4%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
84.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2315% → 16%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
84.7%
Zach Wilcke run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
84.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
83.5%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
83.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 57 yds, downed at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 2:4584% → 89%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
83.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 11 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
83.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 16 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
83.9%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Averie Habas for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
82.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 7
50
+5
83.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (TQ Newsome) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+15
83.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
85.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
84.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Romello Brinson for 18 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
88.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3113% → 14%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.8%
Zach Wilcke run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
86.4%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
87.2%
Zach Wilcke run for 10 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
86.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 8 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 6:0587% → 92%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
86.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
86.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
86.8%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
86.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Thaddius Franklin Jr. for 7 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
87.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
86.8%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+12
86.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
87.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-15
87.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+12
86.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 12 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+12
85.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
86.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.4%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:039% → 8%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-9
91.1%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Leonard Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+11
91.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Janari Dean for 11 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+30
91.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 41 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 30 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
97.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 35 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:234% → 4%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Chandler PittmanSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.4%
Chandler Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
96.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 14 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
96.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
50
+33
96.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 33 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
95.6%
Zach Wilcke run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.7%
Zach Wilcke pass intercepted, touchback. Tyrique Stevenson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0997% → 97%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
97.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 20 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-8
97.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
97.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+11
97.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Thaddius Franklin Jr. for 11 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:303% → 3%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
96.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+6
96.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 6 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
96.8%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
96.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
97.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 5:1998% → 99%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
97.6%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
97.8%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
97.9%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
97.9%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
98.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-5
98.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-5
97.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the SoMis 26 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+14
97.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 14 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+8
98.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
98.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
98.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
98.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
99.2%
Andres Borregales 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 16 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+5
99.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+4
99.3%
Zach Wilcke run for 4 yds to the SoMis 44 Zach Wilcke fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Chantz WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:4599% → 100%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.3%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
99.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 9 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.4%
Key'Shawn Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
99.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-4
99.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
99.6%
Andres Borregales 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yards to the SoMis 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SoMis Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-2
99.5%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
99.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+11
99.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 11 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 24 Natrone Brooks fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Kamren KinchensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:10
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+6
TD · Q3 4:56
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 35 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q2 0:20
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com