2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreWCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:01 · David Shanahan punt for 55 yds , AJ Colombo returns for 12 yds to the WCaro 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:12: Terrence Horne 49 Yd pass from Carlos Davis (Richard McCollum Kick) — WCU win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:37: Toler Keigley 22 Yd pass from Carlos Davis (Richard McCollum Kick) — WCU win probability +1.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:56: Nate McCollum 40 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick) — GT win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:56: Dontae Smith 3 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick) — GT win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:55: Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick) — GT win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 8WCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 12:58GT 4th & 2 at GT 46, tiedClose callPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:58GT 4th & 2 at GT 46, tiedClose callPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:02WCU 4th & 14 at WCU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q2 14:50GT 4th & 16 at WCU 38, tiedClose callPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.216% to convertField goal88.9%38% to makePuntTheir call88.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:35WCU 4th & 18 at WCU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 5:01GT 4th & 3 at GT 34, up 7Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it89.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:17WCU 4th & 24 at WCU 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it5.7%−1.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q4 11:21WCU 4th & 20 at GT 26, down 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.59% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%64% to makePunt0.1%−0.9average punt
- Q4 9:58GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q4 9:58GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q4 7:34GT 4th & 5 at WCU 7, up 22Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%34% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−<0.191% to makePunt98.3%−0.8average punt
- Q4 2:46WCU 4th & 11 at GT 40, down 22Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.127% to convertField goal0.6%34% to makePunt0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:46WCU 4th & 11 at GT 40, down 22Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.127% to convertField goal0.6%34% to makePunt0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:57GT 4th & 5 at GT 40, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:12WCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.7%97% to makeGo for two7.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:22GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:37WCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.9%97% to makeGo for two9.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:35GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:56GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:56GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:55GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5595% → 94%
WCUDrive 2TD6 plays · 89 yds · 1:466% → 7%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
94.3%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Raphael Williams for 12 yds to the WCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
94.3%
DAVIS, Carlos pass to the right incomplete intended for WHITE, David thrown to the GT 33. PENALTY GT Offsides on WHITE, Keion enforced 5 yards from the WCU25 to the WCU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+21
94.3%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Censere Lee for 21 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
93.4%
Terrence Horne 49 Yd pass from Carlos Davis (Richard McCollum Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4494% → 93%
WCUDrive 4TD9 plays · 78 yds · 2:417% → 9%
Q1 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+4
92.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 4 yds to the WCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+30
92.5%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Desmond Reid for 30 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
90.8%
Toler Keigley 22 Yd pass from Carlos Davis (Richard McCollum Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5891% → 92%
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
91.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kalani Norris for 17 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 3:268% → 9%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
91.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to TJ Jones for 10 yds to the WCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
91.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 4 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-10
91.7%
DAVIS, Carlos scrambles to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the WCU45, out of bounds. PENALTY WCU Holding on COULTER, Christian enforced 10 yards from the WCU38 to the WCU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-10
91.7%
DAVIS, Carlos scrambles to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the WCU45, out of bounds. PENALTY WCU Holding on COULTER, Christian enforced 10 yards from the WCU38 to the WCU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+13
92.0%
Carlos Davis pass complete to TJ Jones for 13 yds to the WCaro 41Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-11
91.7%
Carlos Davis sacked by Ayinde Eley for a loss of 11 yards to the WCaro 30Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-11
91.7%
Carlos Davis sacked by Ayinde Eley for a loss of 11 yards to the WCaro 30Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+29
91.0%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 44 yds , Nate McCollum returns for 29 yds to the WCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 1:1292% → 90%
WCUDrive 8INT6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2810% → 11%
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+15
90.3%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Desmond Reid for 15 yds to the WCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
90.2%
DAVIS, Carlos pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Raphael thrown to the GT 45. PENALTY GT Pass Interference on WALLACE, KJ enforced 15 yards to the WCU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2690% → 92%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
90.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 9 yds to the GTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 3:449% → 8%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.5%
DAVIS, Carlos pass to the right complete for -3 yards to WHITE, David caught at the WCU22 and advanced to the WCU22 (BROOKS, LaMiles). PENALTY GT Roughing the Passer on WHITE, Keion enforced 15 yards from the WCU25 to the WCU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to TJ Jones for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-15
91.1%
DAVIS, Carlos pass to the left complete for 3 yards to WHITE, David caught at the GT 40 and advanced to the GT 40 (SIMS, Myles). PENALTY WCU Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Raphael enforced 15 yards to the WCU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 18
OWN 42
+14
91.9%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 45 yds , Nate McCollum returns for 14 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3492% → 91%
Q2 5:01
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+12
90.8%
David Shanahan punt for 55 yds , AJ Colombo returns for 12 yds to the WCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 12INT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:489% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD6 plays · 39 yds · 1:1792% → 94%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
91.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 13 yds to the WCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
91.5%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Carlos Davis) to the WCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
91.5%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Carlos Davis) to the WCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 14END OF HALF12 plays · 30 yds · 1:566% → 6%
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
93.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 6 yds to the WCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
94.0%
(01:38) DAVIS, Carlos pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, TJ thrown to the WCU35. PENALTY WCU Holding on WHITMORE, Blake enforced 10 yards from the WCU38 to the WCU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
93.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 6 yds to the WCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
94.0%
(01:38) DAVIS, Carlos pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, TJ thrown to the WCU35. PENALTY WCU Holding on WHITMORE, Blake enforced 10 yards from the WCU38 to the WCU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+10
94.1%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Raphael Williams for 10 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+10
94.1%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Raphael Williams for 10 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
93.4%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Carlos Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the WCaro 48Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+9
93.6%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 9 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 21
OWN 43
+12
94.1%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Clayton Bardall for 12 yds to the GTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 15FUMBLE9 plays · 21 yds · 3:487% → 8%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.6%
Carlos Davis pass complete to TJ Jones for 11 yds to the WCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-18
92.4%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the WCaro 46 fumbled, recovered by GTech Ayinde EleySimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-18
92.4%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the WCaro 46 fumbled, recovered by GTech Ayinde EleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 3:447% → 6%
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
93.1%
Carlos Davis sacked by Charlie Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 36Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-5
93.6%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Smith) to the WCaro 31Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
93.1%
Carlos Davis sacked by Charlie Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 36Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-8
93.6%
Carlos Davis sacked by Keion White for a loss of 8 yards to the WCaro 23Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 24
OWN 23
0
93.7%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nate McCollum at the GTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD10 plays · 61 yds · 3:2295% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 19FG14 plays · 49 yds · 7:342% → 1%
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
98.3%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Corey Reddick Jr. for 7 yds to the WCaro 33Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
98.2%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 12 yds to the WCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+7
98.5%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Ajay Belanger for 7 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
98.5%
Cole Gonzales run for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 26 Cole Gonzales fumbled, recovered by WCaro Cole GonzalesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 26
0
98.7%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to TJ Jones for no gain to the GTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for no gain to the GTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 21INT2 plays · -1 yds · 0:481% → 1%
GTDrive 22MISSED FG5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 23DOWNS11 plays · 45 yds · 4:481% → 1%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-7
99.2%
Cole Gonzales sacked by Jason Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the WCaro 49Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+15
99.2%
GONZALES, Cole pass to the right incomplete intended for KNIGHT, Malik thrown to the GT 16. PENALTY GT Pass Interference on WALTON, Zamari enforced 15 yards to the GT 39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 22
OWN 49
+15
99.3%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Desmond Reid for 15 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 11
OPP 40
+5
99.5%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Desmond Reid for 5 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 11
OPP 40
+5
99.5%
Cole Gonzales pass complete to Desmond Reid for 5 yds to the GTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+22
99.6%
David Shanahan punt for 45 yds , AJ Colombo returns for 22 yds to the WCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:55
Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)
+2.9
TD · Q2 1:56
Dontae Smith 3 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 10:56
Nate McCollum 40 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)
+2