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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadFUR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreFUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:16 · Tyler Huff pass incomplete to Joshua Harris
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:10: Will Shipley 17 Yd Run (Banks Pope Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:53: Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for 25 yds for a TD, (Axel Lepvreau PAT MISSED) — FUR win probability +0.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Kobe Pace run for 1 yd for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:08: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:48: Axel Lepvreau 30 yd FG GOOD — FUR win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 7:58FUR 4th & 5 at CLEM 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call1.1%85% to makePunt0.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:35FUR 4th & 2 at FUR 43, down 11Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:00CLEM 4th & 1 at FUR 31, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%71% to convertField goal97.9%−0.254% to makePunt97.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:08CLEM 4th & 12 at CLEM 21, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q3 7:10FUR 4th & 3 at CLEM 48, down 26Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:18CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 15, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 0:48FUR 4th & 9 at CLEM 13, down 26Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%85% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:16FUR 4th & 6 at CLEM 30, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%40% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.156% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:18CLEM 4th & 4 at FUR 44, up 23Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%48% to convertField goal99.2%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:34FUR 4th & 2 at FUR 28, down 23Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:56FUR 4th & 1 at CLEM 1, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%59% to convertField goal0.5%−0.794% to makePunt0.4%−0.8average punt
- Q4 2:21CLEM 4th & 12 at CLEM 15, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:46CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:35CLEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:10CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:53FUR Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call2.6%97% to makeGo for two2.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26CLEM Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:08CLEM Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 2 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 2 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+40
99.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 40 yds to the Furm 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+25
99.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 25 yds to the Furm 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 2FG10 plays · 62 yds · 3:481% → 1%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.5%
Tyler Huff sacked by Ruke Orhorhoro for a loss of 5 yards to the Furm 25Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+27
99.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Dominic Roberto for 27 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
99.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for 28 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-2
99.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 15Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+2
99.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 2 yds to the Clem 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0199% → 99%
Q1 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
99.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 13 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+11
99.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 11 yds to the Clem 46Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+19
99.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 19 yds to the Furm 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:501% → 1%
Q1 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Wayne Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the Furm 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for no gain to the Furm 44Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
98.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Wayne Anderson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Furm 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:0599% → 99%
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
98.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 6 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+23
98.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 23 yds to the Furm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 5 yds to the Furm 35Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
98.7%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete, PENALTY FURMAN pass interference 14 yards to the FURMAN14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
98.7%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 7 yds to the Furm 7 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Furm 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 6FUMBLE10 plays · 63 yds · 3:121% → 1%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for no gain to the Furm 25Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 6 yds to the Furm 41Similar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
98.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Wayne Anderson Jr. for 18 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+16
98.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for 16 yds Ryan Miller fumbled, forced by Malcolm Greene, recovered by Clem Fred Davis II , return for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5299% → 99%
FURDrive 8TD6 plays · 54 yds · 1:111% → 2%
CLEMDrive 9TD12 plays · 75 yds · 1:2398% → 99%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 10 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
98.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 8 yds to the Furm 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
98.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 23 yds to the Furm 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
98.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 14 yds to the Furm 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 7 yds · 0:081% → 2%
FURDrive 11INT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q3 13:52
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+19
98.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Devin Abrams for 19 yds to the Furm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Kyndel Dean for 4 yds to the Furm 44Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Tyler Huff pass intercepted Barrett Carter return for no gain to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5299% → 100%
FURDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:500% → 0%
CLEMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
99.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Clem 10Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 10
-3
99.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 7Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 18
OWN 7
+8
99.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 8 yds to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 15FG11 plays · 33 yds · 4:160% → 1%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Parks Gissinger for 1 yd to the Clem 45Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+8
99.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 8 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+14
99.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Wayne Anderson Jr. for 14 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
FURDrive 17DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 0:441% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q4 13:04
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+9
99.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 9 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
99.5%
Uiagalelei, DJ pass incomplete to Collins, Dacari, PENALTY FURMAN pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
99.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 3 yds to the Furm 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 19FUMBLE8 plays · 19 yds · 3:301% → 1%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 5 yds to the Furm 14Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
99.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Furm 20Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
99.4%
Ryan Leavy punt for 31 yds , Will Taylor returns for 4 yds to the Clem 45 Will Taylor fumbled, recovered by Furm Justin HartwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 43 yds · 4:041% → 1%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
99.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 13 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
99.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Kyndel Dean for 6 yds to the Clem 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+13
99.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for 13 yds to the Clem 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 5Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.4%
Tyler Huff sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 10Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 9 yds to the Clem 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
99.6%
FURMAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-2
99.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 15Similar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Aidan Swanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cally Chizik at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 22Uncategorized6 plays · 33 yds · 2:201% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 1:53
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ryan Miller for 25 yds for a TD, (Axel Lepvreau PAT MISSED)
-0.6
TD · Q3 10:08
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.6