2022 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:02 · David Shanahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:53: Will Shipley run for 1 yd for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:52: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 6 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:47: Jeff Sims pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 13 yds for a TD, (Jude Kelley KICK) — GT win probability +10.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:41: B.T. Potter 29 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +4.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:18: DJ Uiagalelei run for 9 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 13 of 13CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 12:48CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 36, tiedClose callPunted · 92.0% before the snapGo for it92.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:55GT 4th & 2 at GT 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.6%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q1 6:09GT 4th & 1 at GT 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:03GT 4th & 27 at GT 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q1 2:24CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.1%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%average punt
- Q1 0:36GT 4th & 5 at GT 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q2 14:11CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 22, tiedClose callPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:03GT 4th & 7 at GT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q2 9:53CLEM 4th & 1 at GT 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.0%59% to convertField goal83.1%−0.894% to makePunt81.0%−3.0average punt
- Q2 6:41GT 4th & 11 at CLEM 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call13.0%49% to makePunt12.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:15GT 4th & 5 at CLEM 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.141% to convertField goalTheir call10.2%60% to makePunt8.8%−1.4average punt
- Q2 0:01CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 43, up 11Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snapGo for it88.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:16CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 31, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snapGo for it87.2%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%average punt
- Q3 11:35GT 4th & 6 at CLEM 37, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.3%40% to convertField goal12.9%−0.440% to makePunt12.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:41CLEM 4th & 11 at GT 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snapGo for it74.9%−1.822% to convertField goalTheir call76.6%86% to makePunt67.6%−9.1average punt
- Q3 4:32GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.652% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q3 0:02GT 4th & 4 at GT 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q4 12:59CLEM 4th & 6 at GT 41, up 14Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.9%40% to convertField goal93.0%−0.932% to makePuntTheir call93.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 10:59GT 4th & 2 at GT 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.4%−1.1average punt
- Q4 8:45CLEM 4th & 10 at GT 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.726% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%84% to makePunt90.2%−4.2average punt
- Q4 7:30GT 4th & 10 at GT 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q4 5:15GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q2 9:53CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:52CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:47GT Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.1%97% to makeGo for two20.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:18CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:27CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%−0.297% to makeGo for two99.3%45% to convert
- Q4 1:35CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.9%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted Andrew Mukuba return for no gain to the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5294% → 94%
Q1 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
6.5%
Aidan Swanson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nate McCollum at the GTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:267% → 7%
Q1 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+4
7.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 4 yds to the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 43 yds · 1:3193% → 92%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
7.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 3 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+22
7.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 22 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
7.5%
Will Shipley run for 3 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
7.6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 5 yds to the GTech 17 DJ Uiagalelei fumbled, forced by Ayinde Eley, recovered by GTech Ayinde EleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT13 plays · 5 yds · 4:548% → 10%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
7.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 6 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
7.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 3 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
9.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the GTech 34Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 18
OWN 31
-4
9.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Hassan Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 27
OWN 22
+4
9.6%
David Shanahan punt for 53 yds , Will Taylor returns for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3190% → 89%
GTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3611% → 12%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
10.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Luke Benson for 1 yd Luke Benson fumbled, recovered by GTechSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1089% → 88%
GTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4213% → 13%
CLEMDrive 10TD5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0488% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11MISSED FG11 plays · 42 yds · 3:0112% → 12%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
12.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dontae Smith for 7 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
12.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
12.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 16 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:4588% → 92%
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
11.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 7 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+26
11.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 26 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
11.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 14 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 6 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13FG11 plays · 47 yds · 2:149% → 12%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
8.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 15 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
9.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 6 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
9.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
9.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 16 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 1:1490% → 90%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0089% → 89%
Q3 14:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
11.7%
Aidan Swanson punt for 34 yds , Nate McCollum returns for 8 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
11.5%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Keion White for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 31 CLEMSON Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD12 plays · 57 yds · 3:1312% → 24%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
13.0%
Jeff Sims sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 49 Jeff Sims fumbled, forced by K.J. Henry, recovered by GTechSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+10
11.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 10 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+8
12.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 8 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
23.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 13 yds for a TD, (Jude Kelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FG15 plays · 63 yds · 4:0481% → 86%
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
18.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 8 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+23
16.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 12 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4317% → 17%
CLEMDrive 19TD9 plays · 74 yds · 2:4985% → 94%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
13.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 16 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
13.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+14
12.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 14 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:588% → 8%
Q3 0:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
7.9%
David Shanahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 2:0193% → 96%
GTDrive 22DOWNS6 plays · 27 yds · 1:574% → 4%
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+21
4.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 21 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23FG6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0897% → 97%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
3.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+18
3.3%
Phil Mafah run for 3 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-2
3.1%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Demetrius Knight II for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
1.9%
Jeff Sims sacked by Bryan Bresee for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 25Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.8%
David Shanahan punt blocked by Billy Wiles blocked by Billy Wiles LaVonta Bentley return for 10 yds to the GTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD4 plays · 15 yds · 0:4398% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27TD11 plays · 66 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+20
0.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Taylor for 20 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
0.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Drew Swinney for 9 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+18
0.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Drew Swinney for 18 yds to the GTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Taylor for 3 yds for a TD, (Robert Gunn III KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:47
Jeff Sims pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 13 yds for a TD, (Jude Kelley KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q3 1:18
DJ Uiagalelei run for 9 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-7.1
FG · Q3 5:41
B.T. Potter 29 yd FG GOOD
-4.1