2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreLOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:47 · Mark Vassett punt for 54 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 4 yds to the Syrac 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:01: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 55 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +4.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:25: Sean Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +9.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- PUNT · Q3 10:42: Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 3 — SYR win probability +8.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 4:54: Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Devaughn Cooper — SYR win probability +5.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:02: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +12.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 9:46SYR 4th & 9 at LOU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.1%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call38.2%85% to makePunt37.5%−0.8average punt
- Q1 6:47LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 37, down 3Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:10LOU 4th & 2 at SYR 2, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.2%48% to convertField goal41.5%−1.794% to makePunt34.8%−8.3average punt
- Q2 1:54SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 41, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it57.9%−2.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q2 1:01LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it34.0%−0.647% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%average punt
- Q3 10:42LOU 4th & 12 at SYR 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it30.0%−1.224% to convertField goal29.8%−1.428% to makePuntTheir call31.2%average punt
- Q3 7:23SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snapGo for it71.3%−1.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.7%average punt
- Q3 2:37SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 49, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it77.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%−1.2average punt
- Q4 3:48LOU 4th & 21 at SYR 46, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.19% to convertField goal0.7%−0.123% to makePunt0.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:01SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:10LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.7%97% to makeGo for two57.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:25SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.0%97% to makeGo for two53.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:02SYR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:40SYR Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1FG12 plays · 62 yds · 5:1433% → 36%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
33.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 11 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
33.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 14 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
33.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 1 yd to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+5
33.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Sean Tucker for 5 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5464% → 62%
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
36.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 7 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+7
36.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 7 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+4
38.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 54 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 4 yds to the Syrac 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3TD4 plays · 87 yds · 1:4637% → 43%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+6
37.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 6 yds to the Syrac 14Similar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
37.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 7 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
42.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 55 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:4459% → 61%
SYRDrive 5TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4540% → 52%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
41.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 13 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+1
41.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Trebor Pena for 1 yd to the Syrac 47Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
42.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 15 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6DOWNS12 plays · 69 yds · 5:0350% → 43%
Q2 10:13
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+5
51.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
51.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 11 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+45
48.8%
Braden Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 45 yds to the Syrac 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 3:1658% → 61%
Q2 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+14
57.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 14 yds to the Syrac 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
58.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Maximilian Mang for 25 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
59.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 4 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+2
58.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 2 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
60.5%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 44 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5336% → 34%
Q2 1:01
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+17
65.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 17 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · -9 yds · 1:0167% → 65%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-5
67.0%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 4:1238% → 32%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
61.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 5 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 3:1968% → 70%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
67.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 15 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 25
OWN 14
+24
67.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 24 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
70.4%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12INT4 plays · 47 yds · 2:2928% → 31%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+45
71.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 45 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1775% → 76%
Q3 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
76.2%
Maximilian Von Marburg punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14INT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1524% → 19%
SYRDrive 15TD4 plays · 13 yds · 1:5883% → 95%
LOUDrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 0 yds · 0:377% → 7%
SYRDrive 17TD7 plays · 25 yds · 3:4595% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18DOWNS13 plays · 43 yds · 4:461% → 1%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
98.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+4
98.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+12
98.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
98.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Isaac Martin for 10 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 19
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 5 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-7
98.6%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Mikel Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 46 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile Tiyon Evans , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19END OF GAME9 plays · 28 yds · 3:4899% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:02
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 10:25
Sean Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+9.7
PUNT · Q3 10:42
Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 3
+8.8