2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:33 · Terrell Walden II run for 15 yds to the BthCk 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:36: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:06: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:50: Gilbert Frierson 32 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:34: Jalon Jones pass complete to Que'shaun Byrd for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Moghaddam KICK) — MIA win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:19: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 8:54BCU 4th & 9 at MIA 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%86% to makePunt0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:50MIA 4th & 2 at BCU 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%57% to convertField goal98.7%−0.232% to makePunt98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:40BCU 4th & 9 at MIA 12, down 11Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.127% to convertField goal1.2%86% to makePunt0.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:29BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 47, down 11Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:49BCU 4th & 24 at BCU 11, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 10:30BCU 4th & 4 at MIA 4, down 32Close callKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 6:05BCU 4th & 2 at MIA 19, down 36Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%56% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%−0.177% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:03BCU 4th & 12 at BCU 23, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:27BCU 4th & 3 at BCU 32, down 57Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10BCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:00MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:36MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06MIA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:50MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:34BCU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:19MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39MIA Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:26MIA Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:42MIA Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55MIA Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:48MIA Touchdown, up 56 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCUDrive 1FG14 plays · 63 yds · 6:060% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, False Start (Desmond Daniels) to the BthCk 20Similar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Que'shaun Byrd for no gain to the BthCk 20Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
99.5%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the BthCk 15Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+24
99.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Marcus Riley for 24 yds to the BthCk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
99.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Dylaan Lee for 20 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+28
99.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Dylaan Lee for 28 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD6 plays · 30 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3INT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:051% → 1%
MIADrive 4TD11 plays · 61 yds · 4:2499% → 99%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
99.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kamren Kinchens) to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
99.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
99.0%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 13 yds to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
98.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 15 yds to the BthCk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+11
98.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 11 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · -21 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.9%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Dylaan Lee for 13 yds to the BthCk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Dylaan Lee for 7 yds to the BthCk 45Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Benjamin Lennon punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD5 plays · 85 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+52
98.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 52 yds to the BthCk 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 7INT TD3 plays · 0 yds · 0:101% → 1%
BCUDrive 8TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:061% → 1%
Q2 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (Darrell Jackson Jr.) to the BthCk 31Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.0%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, False Start (Ace Mckinnis) to the BthCk 26Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.9%
Que'shaun Byrd run for 12 yds to the MIAMI 47 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the BthCk 43Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+34
98.7%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Que'shaun Byrd for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
98.7%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BthCk 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD7 plays · 54 yds · 2:0299% → 100%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
98.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the BthCk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
98.9%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 27 yds to the BthCk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -14 yds · 2:112% → 2%
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
98.1%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Kemari Averett for a loss of 3 yards to the BthCk 24Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
98.3%
Tyrone Franklin Jr sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 8 yards to the BthCk 16Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
-5
98.3%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BthCk 11Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
98.3%
Benjamin Lennon punt for 40 yds , Xavier Restrepo returns for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD5 plays · 51 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
99.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds to the BthCk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+10
99.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 10 yds to the BthCk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
99.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 12KICKOFF3 plays · -7 yds · 0:130% → 0%
MIADrive 13FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
BCUDrive 14FG11 plays · 90 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
99.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Daveno Ellington for 10 yds to the BthCk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Dylaan Lee for 15 yds to the BthCk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
99.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Marcus Riley for 44 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD9 plays · 73 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
99.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 24 yds to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+15
99.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 15 yds to the BthCk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the BthCk 20Similar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Michael Redding III for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 16MISSED FG8 plays · 56 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q3 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+48
99.9%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Darryl Powell Jr. for 48 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD7 plays · 81 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 10 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+18
99.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 18 yds to the BthCk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
99.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jaleel Skinner for 30 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18INT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 0:42
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Tyrone Franklin Jr pass intercepted James Williams return for no gain to the BthCk 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD3 plays · 19 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
BCUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
100.0%
Walter Simmons III sacked by Thomas Davis and Antonio Moultrie for a loss of 6 yards to the BthCk 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD11 plays · 48 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+10
100.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Romello Brinson for 10 yds to the BthCk 24Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
100.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brashard Smith for 5 yds to the BthCk 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
100.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Kahlil Brantley for 8 yds to the BthCk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
100.0%
Walter Simmons III pass complete to Corey Reed for no gain to the BthCk 26 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Illegal Block (-13 Yards) to the BthCk 13Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+9
100.0%
Walter Simmons III pass complete to Darryl Powell Jr. for 9 yds to the BthCk 22Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Benjamin Lennon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23Uncategorized7 plays · 58 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:34
Jalon Jones pass complete to Que'shaun Byrd for 34 yds for a TD, (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 4:19
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 12:06
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+0.3