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UNC

North Carolina 63 at App State 61

APP
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:29 · Chase Brice sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−17.8Score differential−9.3Garbage-time factor−5.7Pregame prior+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 7:20: Christan Horn 31 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +21.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:00: Camerun Peoples run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +34.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:50: Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 42 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +36.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:31: Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — APP win probability +30.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:28: PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from UNC35 to UNC20. NO PLAY. — UNC win probability +19.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:36UNC 4th & 3 at APP 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:39UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:46UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:13APP 4th & 10 at UNC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:44APP 4th & 12 at APP 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:55APP 4th & 1 at UNC 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−3.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:29APP 4th & 7 at UNC 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:21UNC 4th & 7 at APP 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:11UNC 4th & 8 at APP 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:46UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:36APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:21UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:35APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:18APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:30UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:08UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:01UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:55UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:10APP Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:37APP Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:25UNC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    86.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:20APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−1.7
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:00APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 2:50UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 0:31APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 6.8 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.4%−6.8
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 0:28UNC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−2.5
    45% to convert
  17. Q4 0:09APP Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.2%−19.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2456% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
55.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 7 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-12
55.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, St Personal Foul St36 to St21. (Anderson Hardy) to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
55.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+27
55.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 27 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
55.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
55.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+52
57.3%
Nate Noel run for 52 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1543% → 45%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
57.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
57.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
56.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
56.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
56.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+4
57.0%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
55.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 23 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4656% → 60%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.1%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
56.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Tyler Page for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+41
56.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 41 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
60.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 3:4941% → 38%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
59.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
59.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to D.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+7
61.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Tyler Page returns for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+7
61.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Tyler Page returns for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
22 plays · 65 yds · 5:2161% → 70%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
60.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
61.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
60.9%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Brice,Chase pass incomplete short right to Davis,Dashaun PENALTY UNC Offside offsetting App St Illegal Block in Back offsetting App St Illegal Block in Back offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
60.9%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
61.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-15
61.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christian Wells for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Pass Interference St48 to UNC37, 1ST DOWN. (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
61.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+20
61.3%
Dashaun Davis run for 20 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
61.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
61.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
62.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
61.8%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Brice,Chase pass incomplete short right to Davis,Dashaun PENALTY UNC Offside offsetting App St Illegal Block in Back offsetting App St Illegal Block in Back offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
61.8%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
62.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-15
62.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christian Wells for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Pass Interference St48 to UNC37, 1ST DOWN. (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
62.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+20
62.3%
Dashaun Davis run for 20 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
62.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
62.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+8
63.0%
Chase Brice run for 8 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4833% → 40%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
67.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+18
67.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
66.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin Blackwell for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, St Pass Interference St46, 1ST DOWN. (Ethan Johnson) to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
66.4%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
66.4%
Drake Maye sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+22
67.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 22 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake rush left for 7 yards gain to the App St18 (Parker,Andrew; Greene,Jackson) PENALTY UNC Holding (Montilus,Ed) 10 yards from App St25 to App St35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+9
66.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 9 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+9
66.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 9 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
66.3%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
66.3%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
60.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 14 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:1764% → 64%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.0%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
64.9%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
65.2%
PENALTY UNC Face Mask (Taylor,Noah) 15 yards from App St39 to UNC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
66.0%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Nate NoelSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
66.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
65.6%
Chase Brice run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
64.2%
Michael Hughes 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0536% → 51%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
64.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
63.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 9 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
62.8%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
61.8%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
62.1%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
61.1%
George Pettaway run for 11 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
49.2%
George Pettaway run for 21 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:2458% → 54%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
58.6%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Peoples,Camerun rush left for 6 yards gain to the App St42 (Grimes,Tony) PENALTY App St Personal Foul (Pearson,Henry) 15 yards from App St36 to App St21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+1
57.4%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 24
OWN 22
+3
57.2%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+9
56.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
54.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cam'Ron Kelly at the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:4347% → 66%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
53.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
51.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+11
53.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to George Pettaway for 11 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
50.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+19
49.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
47.9%
Drake Maye sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
47.9%
Drake Maye sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
49.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+21
51.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 21 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
34.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11Uncategorized
3 plays · 5 yds · 2:4545% → 42%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0560% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.5%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
40.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
38.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 36 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
37.2%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
34.8%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+7
35.3%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
23.6%
Drake Maye run for 12 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 38 yds · 6:2627% → 22%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.7%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
26.5%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
27.3%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
27.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 17 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
28.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
28.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+4
28.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
28.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
25.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
24.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
24.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 7
OPP 32
-5
22.0%
Chase Brice sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:0883% → 90%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
17.3%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Richards,Asim) 5 yards from UNC37 to UNC32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+10
17.9%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
16.9%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
16.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
50
+18
15.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 18 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
15.3%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
13.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to George Pettaway for 1 yd to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
13.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
10.2%
Noah Burnette 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
7.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 13 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
7.6%
PENALTY App St False Start (Hodges,Cooper) 5 yards from App St38 to App St33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
7.1%
Chase Brice pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:3590% → 96%
Q3 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
10.0%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
10.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
8.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the AppSt 24 Omarion Hampton fumbled, forced by Jackson Greene, recovered by NCaro Corey GaynorSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
8.4%
George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
9.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
3.9%
Noah Burnette 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:363% → 13%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
2.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
2.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+10
2.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 10 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
2.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
2.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+21
2.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 21 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
2.7%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
2.6%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.2%
Nate Noel 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.7%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28 Drake Maye fumbled, forced by Nick Hampton, recovered by AppStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:3313% → 32%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
12.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 15 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
12.8%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
32.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1274% → 95%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
25.6%
Caleb Hood run for 71 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
20.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds for a TD, (D. Maye Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:015% → 25%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
4.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 20 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
4.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-10
4.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Noel,Nate rush left for 0 yards to the App St45 (Gray,Cedric; Rucker,Kaimon) PENALTY App St Holding (Hardy,Anderson) 10 yards from App St45 to App St35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 18
OWN 35
-15
4.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, St39 UNR: Unnecessary Roughness St39 to UNC46, 1ST DOWN. (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
4.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
4.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
4.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brice,Chase pass incomplete short middle to Horn,Christan broken up by Duck,Storm, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field stands.Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
25.4%
Christan Horn 31 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:3482% → 86%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
19.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 16 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
15.8%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-5
15.7%
PENALTY UNC False Start 5 yards from UNC45 to UNC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
17.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
17.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Andre Greene Jr.Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+18
14.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds , Tyler Page returns for 18 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4622% → 60%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
21.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, St38 Face Mask St38 to UNC47, 1ST DOWN. (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
25.2%
Chase Brice run for 9 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+38
60.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1053% → 92%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
47.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, St Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
45.8%
PENALTY UNC False Start 5 yards from UNC35 to UNC30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+27
47.6%
Drake Maye run for 27 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
44.1%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
44.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+42
8.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 42 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:2216% → 20%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
15.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
16.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+16
18.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 16 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
20.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Noel,Nate rush left for 24 yards gain to the UNC18 (Echols,Power) PENALTY App St Holding (Williams,Bucky) 10 yards from UNC42 to App St48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
16.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 20
OWN 48
0
16.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Daetrich HarringtonSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+10
15.5%
Chase Brice run for 10 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+10
11.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brice,Chase pass incomplete short middle to Horn,Christan PENALTY UNC Holding (Brooks,Jalen) 10 yards from UNC42 to UNC32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
17.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
44.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
20.4%
PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from UNC35 to UNC20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:103% → 21%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
3.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 22 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
21.3%
Kaedin Robinson 26 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
4.4%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:50
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 42 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
-36
TD · Q4 4:00
Camerun Peoples run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
+34.9
TD · Q4 0:31
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+30.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com