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NEV

Nevada 23 at New Mexico State 12

NMSU
2022 · Week 1 · Aug 27, 2022 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-0.2NMSU 17.6%Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 9 · Q4 14:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:56 · Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−22.1Pregame prior−4.0Score differential−8.6Garbage-time factor−7.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:02: Devonte Lee run for 32 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +7.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:08: Brandon Talton 28 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +4.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:42: Devonte Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +8.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:19: Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:21: Ethan Albertson 46 Yd Field Goal — NMSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:32NMSU 4th & 9 at NEV 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:29NMSU 4th & 3 at NEV 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04NEV 4th & 15 at NEV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:38NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:08NEV 4th & 11 at NMSU 11, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−6.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:53NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:56NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:09NEV 4th & 19 at NMSU 48, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:56NEV 4th & 3 at NMSU 17, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:21NMSU 4th & 3 at NEV 28, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%−1.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−6.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:35NEV 4th & 4 at NMSU 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:02NEV Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:42NEV Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:19NMSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:2434% → 36%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
34.4%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+35
35.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 35 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
35.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
36.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-6
36.3%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
36.2%
Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4664% → 63%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
36.0%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
36.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Tyrese MackSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
36.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+4
36.7%
Matt Freem punt for 41 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3INT
12 plays · 43 yds · 6:0537% → 39%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
36.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
36.9%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
37.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
37.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 8 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
38.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 7 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
38.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
38.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+5
38.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 5 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
39.6%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
39.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jordin ParkerSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+5
39.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 3
OPP 24
0
39.2%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted, touchback. Isaiah Essissima return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:1861% → 60%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
38.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 10Similar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
38.8%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+3
38.7%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
39.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+13
40.2%
Matt Freem punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 13 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2041% → 40%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
41.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+2
40.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
40.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Ahmonte WatkinsSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
40.0%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jordin ParkerSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
39.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6SF
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:5561% → 57%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
39.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyriece Thomas) to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 5
OWN 18
-2
39.3%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
39.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
42.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nevad Shane Illingworth for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5142% → 45%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.9%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
42.0%
Diego Pavia run for 23 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
44.6%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
45.2%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Bentlee Sanders return for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1557% → 67%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+24
42.1%
Toa Taua run for 24 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
40.8%
Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
40.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Cooper Shults for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+32
33.5%
Devonte Lee run for 32 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4136% → 36%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
35.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
35.8%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Isaiah Essissima return for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:4666% → 72%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
34.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
34.1%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+19
33.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 19 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
32.2%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
32.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
32.9%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
32.0%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
32.0%
Shane Illingworth run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
32.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
28.1%
Brandon Talton 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4728% → 29%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.0%
Jordin Parker run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
27.8%
Jonathan Brady run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
29.1%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 18 Diego Pavia fumbled, forced by Dom Peterson, recovered by Nevad Dom PetersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0774% → 84%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
25.7%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
25.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+9
25.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 9 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
24.5%
Shane Illingworth run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.4%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0480% → 82%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.0%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.9%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
17.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-4
17.7%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
17.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+1
18.1%
Matt Freem punt for 39 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4820% → 19%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
20.3%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
20.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
19.6%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
18.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for no gain to the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:3683% → 85%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
16.9%
Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
16.7%
Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+14
16.3%
Nate Cox run for 14 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
15.0%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
13.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 8 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
13.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nevad Nate CoxSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 18
OPP 47
-1
13.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 19
OPP 48
0
13.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 19
OPP 48
+33
14.6%
Matt Freem punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 10 NEVADA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:4516% → 28%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
16.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+67
16.0%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Justice Powers for 67 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
18.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
18.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the Nevad 10Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
28.2%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:1276% → 82%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.3%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.5%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
24.0%
Nate Cox run for 8 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
21.1%
Nate Cox run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
20.4%
Cross Patton run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
20.4%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
19.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lazarus Williams) to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+1
18.9%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
18.4%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jacob Munro for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
18.4%
Devonte Lee run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
17.5%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
17.8%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+3
17.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
17.6%
Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
16 plays · 47 yds · 6:2818% → 21%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.0%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
18.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gabriel Preciado) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
16.8%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Justice Powers for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
16.8%
Gavin Frakes run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
17.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
17.6%
Gavin Frakes pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
16.7%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
18.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-5
18.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
18.1%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
15.3%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
17.1%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
17.1%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
16.0%
Gavin Frakes pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
20.5%
Ethan Albertson 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 6:3587% → 96%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
13.3%
Nate Cox run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
12.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
10.6%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
11.2%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+12
11.1%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
8.6%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
8.4%
Nate Cox run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
8.4%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
7.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+6
6.2%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+17
5.7%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Donavan King) to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
4.7%
Nate Cox pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
4.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+3
4.1%
Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
4.1%
Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21INT
12 plays · 61 yds · 1:034% → 5%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
3.7%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 14 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
4.2%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
4.1%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
4.6%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jordin Parker for 11 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
5.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
5.8%
Gavin Frakes run for 8 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 2
OPP 9
0
5.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-5
5.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
5.2%
Gavin Frakes pass intercepted, touchback. Tyson Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:19
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 0:42
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
-8.1
TD · Q2 10:02
Devonte Lee run for 32 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com