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MSU

Michigan State 16 at Penn State 35

PSU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:07 · Bryce Baringer punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the PnSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+11.8Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1Time remaining+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:42: Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:37: Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — MSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:52: Payton Thorne 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:31: Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:56: Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:42PSU 4th & 6 at MSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31MSU 4th & 19 at MSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:31PSU 4th & 2 at MSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56MSU 4th & 4 at PSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:27PSU 4th & 7 at MSU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27MSU 4th & 1 at PSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00MSU 4th & 7 at PSU 34, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:11PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:42MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 28, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:27PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:42MSU 4th & 2 at PSU 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48PSU 4th & 16 at PSU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:31PSU 4th & 2 at MSU 12, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−2.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−13.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:07MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 15, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:40PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:22PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:42PSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:37MSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:52MSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:31PSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:56PSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0810% → 10%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
90.3%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+12
90.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 12 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
90.0%
Jayden Reed run for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 24 Jayden Reed fumbled, recovered by PnSt Tyler ElsdonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0490% → 90%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
90.1%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+6
90.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
90.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
89.8%
Jake Pinegar 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2810% → 11%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
89.7%
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
89.7%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-9
89.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 20
OWN 24
0
89.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 59 yds , Mitchell Tinsley returns for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1689% → 88%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
89.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
89.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+14
88.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
89.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-5
89.0%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Sal Wormley) to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
88.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+14
88.0%
Barney Amor punt for 42 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 14 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2712% → 13%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+17
88.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 17 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
87.9%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 15
OPP 48
-4
88.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 19
OWN 48
0
87.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, downed at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:5187% → 89%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
87.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+14
87.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 14 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
87.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+31
87.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 31 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
87.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
88.0%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
87.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+7
87.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
88.0%
CLIFFORD, Sean pass to the left incomplete intended for WALLACE III, Harrison thrown to the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Holding on KIMBROUGH, Chester enforced 10 yards from the MSU23 to the MSU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
88.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
88.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1012% → 12%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
87.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.4%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
87.5%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for REED, Jayden thrown to the PSU25. PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the MSU45 to the MSU35 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+6
87.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
88.0%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for REED, Jayden broken up by WILSON, Marquis at the PSU26. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on BALDWIN, Brandon PSU Offsides on ISAAC, Adisa , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
88.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
88.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0888% → 91%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+16
87.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 16 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
88.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
88.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
91.4%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith pass complete to Theo Johnson for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:2610% → 10%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
89.9%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
90.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
50
0
89.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
50
+11
89.8%
Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.6%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
89.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-1
89.5%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
90.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 5:2991% → 92%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
90.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
91.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
90.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
91.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
91.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 16 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.2%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
91.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+10
91.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
92.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
92.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-2
92.3%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
91.9%
Jake Pinegar 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 1:279% → 10%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
91.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
90.9%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for BERGER, Jalen thrown to the MSU38; QB hurried by ROBINSON, Demeioun. PENALTY PSU Holding on BROWN, Ji'Ayir enforced 10 yards from the MSU32 to the MSU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
90.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
90.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
90.2%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
90.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+16
91.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 16 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
89.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
89.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
89.6%
Jack Stone 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:4990% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
89.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.0%
Sean Clifford run for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
89.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-6
89.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+3
88.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+2
88.6%
Barney Amor punt for 49 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2911% → 10%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
88.7%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
88.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
88.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
89.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1590% → 89%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
89.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
90.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
90.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 5 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-7
89.8%
Sean Clifford sacked by Avery Dunn for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+9
89.0%
Barney Amor punt for 53 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 17 Jayden Reed fumbled, recovered by PnSt Chop RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:4591% → 96%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
90.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:055% → 13%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
95.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
50
0
95.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
50
+4
95.0%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+10
95.1%
Elijah Collins run for 10 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
94.5%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for REED, Jayden broken up by DIXON, Johnny at the PSU5. PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the PSU32 to the PSU27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+1
94.3%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+17
94.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 17 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.3%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
86.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4991% → 90%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
91.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
90.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-6
91.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+16
90.4%
Barney Amor punt for 56 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 16 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:5611% → 32%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
89.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
89.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
89.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.6%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
88.2%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Keon thrown to the PSU30. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on WILSON, Marquis enforced 15 yards to the PSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
87.7%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-9
87.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+23
89.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 23 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
87.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+17
88.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
86.6%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for REED, Jayden broken up by DIXON, Johnny at the PSU0. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on DIXON, Johnny enforced 6 yards to the PSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.4%
Payton Thorne 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:2182% → 96%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
82.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
81.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
82.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+19
82.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 19 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
84.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 12 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
85.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
85.1%
CLIFFORD, Sean pass to the left incomplete intended for WALLACE III, Harrison thrown to the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Offsides on FLETCHER, Michael enforced 5 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU20 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
85.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
85.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
83.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+12
95.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:275% → 5%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
94.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
98.4%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete broken up by CARTER, Abdul at the MSU27; QB hurried by CARTER, Abdul. PENALTY MSU Holding on BALDWIN, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the MSU27 to the MSU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 20
OWN 17
-7
98.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 27
OWN 10
+5
98.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 22
OWN 15
0
98.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Tinsley at the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.3%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:52
Payton Thorne 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-18.2
TD · Q4 4:31
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 1:37
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com