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MICH

Michigan 45 at Ohio State 23

OSU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:47 · Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+3.0Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:26: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 69 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +8.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:49: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:56: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +15.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:10: J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +16.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:11: Donovan Edwards run for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +15.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:07MICH 4th & 17 at OSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:19OSU 4th & 9 at MICH 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:47MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:31OSU 4th & 2 at MICH 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:26MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:00OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36OSU 4th & 11 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:18MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:14OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:03MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.4%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:58OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:03MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:01OSU 4th & 10 at MICH 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:46OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:21MICH 4th & 7 at OSU 39, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:23OSU 4th & 4 at MICH 9, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%−1.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−7.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:02OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:26MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:24MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:49OSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:56MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:10MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:11MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:19MICH Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 4:4675% → 76%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
75.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
75.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 9 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
75.0%
Miyan Williams run for 6 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
75.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Paris Johnson Jr.) to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+18
74.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 18 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
74.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
50
+6
74.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+19
74.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
74.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 7 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+12
74.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 12 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
74.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the Mich 5Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 1 yd to the Mich 4Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:4725% → 25%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.4%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
75.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
75.3%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
75.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+33
75.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 33 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
74.7%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Cody Simon for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 34 MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (J.J. McCarthy) to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
75.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 20
OPP 34
+3
75.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 17
OPP 31
+49
75.1%
Jake Moody 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:2574% → 77%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
74.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 17 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Junior Colson) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
75.1%
Miyan Williams run for 8 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+7
75.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
75.3%
C.J. Stroud run for 5 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
75.3%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+3
75.0%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
75.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 1 yd to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
75.2%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
74.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
76.5%
Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1924% → 23%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.1%
C.J. Stokes run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
76.2%
C.J. Stokes run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
76.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
76.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:0877% → 77%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
76.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 6 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
77.3%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
77.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
77.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 11 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
77.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+8
77.3%
Miyan Williams run for 8 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
77.6%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
77.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3424% → 23%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
76.2%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
76.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
77.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
77.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2077% → 77%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
76.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 16 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
77.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 5 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
77.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+47
76.7%
Jesse Mirco punt for 57 yds for a touchback OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cody Simon)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:2523% → 32%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
76.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-1
76.6%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+69
68.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 69 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:4271% → 73%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
70.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 24 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
72.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 18 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
73.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-5
73.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
73.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
72.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+47
72.6%
Noah Ruggles 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
63.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:2465% → 75%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
64.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 15 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
65.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 7 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+15
66.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 15 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
74.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2326% → 26%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
73.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
72.7%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
73.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0072% → 70%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
71.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+6
70.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 47 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 6 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:0028% → 26%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
72.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-5
70.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Cornelius Johnson) to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-5
72.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Karsen Barnhart) to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+4
73.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
74.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
71.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5029% → 46%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
69.9%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
70.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
71.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
69.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 19 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
54.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4259% → 58%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+7
58.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 7 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
60.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 2
50
-1
61.1%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
59.7%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
57.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 38 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5144% → 42%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
55.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
55.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+2
57.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
57.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:5160% → 53%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
60.2%
Stroud, C.J. pass complete to Trayanum, Chip for 23 yards to the MICHIGAN25, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Jackson, Donovan) 10 yards to the OHIOST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 20
OWN 42
-15
56.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gee Scott Jr.) to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 35
OWN 27
+3
54.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 32
OWN 30
+13
53.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 13 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+14
53.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 14 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 5
OPP 43
-5
55.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Mason Arnold) to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
52.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 7:4048% → 80%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
51.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 7 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
49.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
49.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+12
45.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 12 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
43.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
41.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+15
41.5%
Kalel Mullings pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 15 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
39.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
38.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the OhSt 16Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+3
39.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
37.1%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the OhSt 13Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
37.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+12
38.9%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Hickman, Ronnie) 12 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
37.5%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 3Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1124% → 22%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
22.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 6 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.2%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+25
21.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the OHIOST 28 OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Javontae Jean-Baptiste) to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:1682% → 86%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
18.5%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Johnson, Cornelius, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Ransom, Lathan) 15 yards to the OHIOST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
17.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-1
15.5%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+1
14.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+57
14.4%
Jake Moody 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:4419% → 25%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
18.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
18.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+44
17.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 44 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
22.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
22.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
19.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
25.0%
Noah Ruggles 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
5.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:417% → 5%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
7.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 11 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
7.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 7 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
7.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
7.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+12
6.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 12 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
7.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
5.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
5.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
5.0%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted Taylor Upshaw return for no gain to the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 0:5297% → 99%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
3.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
2.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+85
0.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 85 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 27INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
1.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-8
1.1%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Eyabi Okie for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-8
0.8%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted Makari Paige return for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
0.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:10
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q3 11:56
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q4 7:11
Donovan Edwards run for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com