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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:07 · Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 17 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:55: Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +2.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:44: Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +4.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:36: Chad Ryland 33 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +2.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:10: Roman Hemby run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +6.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:02: Chad Ryland 46 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +3.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 10 of 10RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 12:56RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, tiedClose callPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:27RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q1 8:18MD 4th & 5 at MD 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it81.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.3%average punt
- Q1 6:25RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.7%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q1 2:34RUTG 4th & 1 at MD 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.3%70% to convertField goal20.5%−0.823% to makePunt20.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:01RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.4%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q2 11:58MD 4th & 27 at MD 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it80.3%−1.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.5%average punt
- Q2 9:49RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 32, down 7Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it18.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%−0.7average punt
- Q2 9:49MD 4th & 1 at RUTG 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.2%71% to convertField goal81.2%−1.056% to makePunt80.7%−1.5average punt
- Q2 2:05RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q2 0:36MD 4th & 5 at RUTG 15, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it87.8%−0.639% to convertField goalTheir call88.4%83% to makePunt85.3%−3.1average punt
- Q3 14:56MD 4th & 3 at RUTG 33, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.1%53% to convertField goal89.1%−1.149% to makePunt88.6%−1.6average punt
- Q3 10:15RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 31, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q3 6:02MD 4th & 21 at RUTG 28, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.88% to convertField goalTheir call97.1%60% to makePunt95.5%−1.7average punt
- Q3 4:07RUTG 4th & 15 at RUTG 47, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 4:07MD 4th & 5 at RUTG 38, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%42% to convertField goal99.5%−0.238% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 0:06MD 4th & 8 at RUTG 19, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%77% to makePunt98.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 14:03RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 34, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:03MD 4th & 1 at RUTG 46, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%70% to convertField goal99.5%−0.323% to makePunt99.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:38RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 30, down 37Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:31MD 4th & 7 at MD 28, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:55MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.5%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:44MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:10MD Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:41MD Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0417% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · 55 yds · 2:2883% → 83%
Q1 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
83.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 16 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
83.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 5 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+20
82.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 20 yds CJ Dippre fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Wesley BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0118% → 18%
MDDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0982% → 81%
RUTGDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5319% → 19%
MDDrive 6FUMBLE4 plays · 35 yds · 1:1281% → 81%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
81.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle incomplete intended for JONES, Jeshaun thrown to the RUT36. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on YOUNG, Avery enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the RUT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
81.3%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 29 fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Wesley BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 22 yds · 2:3920% → 21%
MDDrive 8TD7 plays · 51 yds · 2:3981% → 83%
RUTGDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5418% → 17%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
83.0%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia sacked for a loss of 0 yards at the UMD44 (COLLINS, Shawn). PENALTY RUT Holding on IGBINOSUN, Desmond enforced 10 yards from the UMD44 to the RUT46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 2:0383% → 81%
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-6
83.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Ifeanyi Maijeh for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 16
OWN 48
-11
82.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Kenny Fletcher for a loss of 11 yards to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 27
OWN 37
+2
81.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 42 yds , Aron Cruickshank returns for 2 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0918% → 18%
Q2 9:49
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
81.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD13 plays · 82 yds · 6:0582% → 88%
Q2 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+43
81.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 43 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
83.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 2 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
83.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 9 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
83.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 5 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
83.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 11 yds to the Rutgr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3513% → 13%
MDDrive 14FG13 plays · 65 yds · 1:2987% → 92%
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
86.8%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the RUT40. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on BRASWELL, Christian enforced 15 yards to the UMD37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
87.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 8 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
87.6%
Eric Najarian pass complete to Tai Felton for 15 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
87.6%
Eric Najarian pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 17 yds to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
89.4%
Eric Najarian pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4691% → 96%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+37
90.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 37 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
91.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+7
90.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 7 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+25
90.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 25 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:554% → 4%
Q3 10:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18FG10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1396% → 100%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
96.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+21
96.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 21 yds to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-3
96.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Ramon Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-8
96.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Deion Jennings for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
99.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Johnny Langan for 27 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-7
99.5%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Ahmad McCullough for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20FG9 plays · 66 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+42
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 42 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 5 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+17
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 17 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:570% → 0%
MDDrive 22TD11 plays · 93 yds · 4:22100% → 100%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for no gain to the Mary 7 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Deion Jennings) to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 23 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
99.8%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to SMITH JR., Octavian caught at the RUT35 and advanced to the RUT32 (BRASWELL, Christian). PENALTY UMD Holding on LUNSFORD, Mason enforced 10 yards from the RUT40 to the UMD50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+15
99.8%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the right incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the RUT10. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on DAVIS, Carnell enforced 15 yards to the RUT27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 27 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
99.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Shameen Jones for 10 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Christian Dremel for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
MDDrive 25PUNT9 plays · -12 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-10
99.9%
BROWN, Ramon rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the RUT14 (BRASWELL, Christian). PENALTY UMD Holding on ANDERSON, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the RUT16 to the RUT26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 23
OPP 29
-9
99.9%
Eric Najarian sacked by Mayan Ahanotu for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 32
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay Of Game (Colton Spangler) to the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 3:44
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+4.6
FG · Q3 6:02
Chad Ryland 46 yd FG GOOD
+3