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MINN

Minnesota 23 at Wisconsin 16

WIS
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-33WIS 11.5%Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete toLe'Meke Brockington for 45 yds for aTD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)AWAY 23 - HOME 16 · Q4 3:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:40 · Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense−29.3Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor−11.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.3Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 10:59: Matthew Trickett 50 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +8.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:58: Nate Van Zelst 36 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +6.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:14: Chimere Dike run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +19.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:58: Matthew Trickett 27 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +10.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:40: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +33.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:39WIS 4th & 10 at MINN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:19WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55MINN 4th & 1 at WIS 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−4.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:51WIS 4th & 1 at MINN 24, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−1.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:58MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:40WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 43, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MINN 4th & 2 at WIS 7, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%−1.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−9.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:59MINN 4th & 7 at WIS 32, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:58WIS 4th & 8 at MINN 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−11.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:21MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:53MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−4.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:39WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:56MINN 4th & 22 at MINN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−5.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:01WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:58MINN 4th & 7 at WIS 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−4.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−15.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:21WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−2.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:48MINN 4th & 5 at WIS 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:38WIS 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:45MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:14WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:40MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:1558% → 59%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
57.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
57.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 8 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 11 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
58.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
58.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
58.5%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+12
58.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Beanie Bishop) to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
58.7%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Minn 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
58.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Isaac GuerendoSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
58.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
58.7%
Nate Van Zelst 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 5:2841% → 45%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
58.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 14 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
58.7%
Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
58.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+23
58.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 23 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
58.4%
Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+17
58.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 17 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
58.0%
Bryce Williams run for 11 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
58.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
58.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1256% → 55%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jackson Acker for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
56.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
55.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
55.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:1244% → 45%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+42
55.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dylan Wright for 42 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
54.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
54.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 12 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
53.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
53.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
54.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 7 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
55.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for no gain to the Wisc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:5556% → 59%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
55.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
55.6%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+12
54.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 12 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
55.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 9 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
56.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
57.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
56.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+25
55.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 25 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
58.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
58.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
57.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+43
59.1%
Nate Van Zelst 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4745% → 44%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
54.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
55.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
55.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0656% → 56%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
56.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 9 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
58.1%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
57.1%
Graham Mertz run for 3 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
56.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 1 yd to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
56.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+4
57.7%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
56.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8END OF HALF
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2647% → 54%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
53.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Keeanu Benton and Maema Njongmeta for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+6
53.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+14
54.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
52.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 7 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
51.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+11
51.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 11 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
50.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 26 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
47.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
48.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
47.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+1
48.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Wisc 8Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+1
49.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Wisc 7Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+25
46.2%
Matthew Trickett 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:4951% → 61%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
48.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 11 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
48.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
49.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Roughing Passer (C.J. Goetz) to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
46.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 20 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
44.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
44.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+6
45.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-5
47.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Chuck Filiaga) to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
39.1%
Matthew Trickett 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:5342% → 52%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
43.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 14 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
44.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 24 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Hayden RucciSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
47.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 11 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
47.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
47.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack EschenbachSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
45.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
51.9%
Nate Van Zelst 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2552% → 52%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
48.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
46.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dylan Wright for no gain to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+3
47.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
48.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:0251% → 70%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
51.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (Jack Nelson) to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+14
47.6%
Chez Mellusi run for 14 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
47.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 8 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+6
49.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 6 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
50.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jackson Acker for 28 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
50.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
69.9%
Chimere Dike run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0334% → 31%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
66.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
67.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Le'Meke BrockingtonSimilar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
68.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4165% → 64%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.4%
Skyler Bell run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
65.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
66.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Keontez LewisSimilar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+3
64.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 50 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 3 yds to the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:3734% → 29%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+23
66.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dylan Wright for 23 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
65.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by James Thompson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+5
68.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 5 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-10
69.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Darryl Peterson for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+44
70.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 44 yds , Dean Engram returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4970% → 69%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
71.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
70.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
69.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds, downed at the Minn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:5232% → 49%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
67.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dylan Wright for 14 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
67.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 19 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
62.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+34
63.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 34 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
59.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 7 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-4
59.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 9Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
61.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Dylan WrightSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
51.2%
Matthew Trickett 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2658% → 54%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
57.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
56.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
53.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 42 yds, downed at the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:3250% → 89%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
50.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
49.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dylan Wright for 7 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
46.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
47.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 16 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
44.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+45
11.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4821% → 20%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-28
19.9%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Justin Walley return for 28 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2991% → 94%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
8.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
6.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+1
4.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
6.0%
Matthew Trickett 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 45 yds · 1:4012% → 12%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
11.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 11 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
12.9%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
13.0%
Chase Wolf pass incomplete to Keontez LewisSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
10.7%
Chase Wolf run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 1
50
+14
9.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 14 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
11.9%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Chimere Dike for 16 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
16.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Justin Walley) to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
21.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Riley Mahlman) to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 0
OPP 15
-5
18.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Tanor Bortolini) to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 0
OPP 20
0
18.1%
Chase Wolf pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 0
OPP 20
-5
18.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Tyler Beach) to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 0
OPP 25
-5
15.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Riley Mahlman) to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 0
OPP 30
0
15.3%
Chase Wolf pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 0
OPP 30
+5
13.2%
Chase Wolf pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 0
OPP 25
0
11.8%
Chase Wolf pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:40
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-33
TD · Q3 3:14
Chimere Dike run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
+19.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com