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ILL

Illinois 41 at Northwestern 3

NU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:47 · Luke Akers punt for 34 yds, downed at the Illin 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense−7.7Pregame prior−21.1Score differential−4.1Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:22: Reggie Love III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +0.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:57: Caleb Griffin 23 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +1.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:25: Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:51: Caleb Griffin 43 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:23: Sydney Brown 53 Yd Fumble Return (Caleb Griffin Kick) — ILL win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:16ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30NU 4th & 5 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:30NU 4th & 5 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:37NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 25, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:52ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:57ILL 4th & 5 at NU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:42ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:47NU 4th & 4 at NU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:50NU 4th & 6 at NU 47, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:51ILL 4th & 7 at NU 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:31NU 4th & 9 at NU 26, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:17NU 4th & 10 at ILL 10, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:25NU 4th & 13 at ILL 38, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:14NU 4th & 10 at ILL 20, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:22ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:25ILL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:23ILL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:06ILL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:25ILL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4483% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
17.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
17.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
17.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-4
17.0%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Devin O'Rourke and Adetomiwa Adebawore for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+5
17.0%
ROBERTSON, Hugh punt 42 yards to the NU16 downed by MARCHESE, Michael. PENALTY NU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the ILL42 to the ILL47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
18.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
18.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4618% → 20%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
18.4%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
18.4%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+4
18.3%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
18.4%
Cole Freeman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
18.4%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
18.3%
Cole Freeman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
19.5%
Luke Akers punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
19.5%
Luke Akers punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0880% → 81%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
19.7%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+11
19.7%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
19.5%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+20
19.4%
Reggie Love III run for 20 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
19.3%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
19.3%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+14
19.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 14 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
19.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
19.3%
Reggie Love III run for 12 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.6%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4520% → 20%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
19.5%
Cole Freeman sacked by Tarique Barnes and Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
19.5%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
19.2%
Cole Freeman run for 7 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
19.7%
Hunter Renner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:4580% → 79%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
19.6%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
19.7%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
20.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+23
20.2%
Hugh Robertson run for 23 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
19.1%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
19.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-5
19.6%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Rod Heard II and Adetomiwa Adebawore for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
20.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6INT
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:5421% → 20%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.7%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
20.9%
Cole Freeman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
20.4%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
20.9%
Malik Washington pass complete to Cam Porter for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
21.6%
run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
21.4%
run for 1 yd to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+21
21.4%
Cole Freeman run for 21 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
22.4%
Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+10
22.3%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 10 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
22.3%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 1 yd to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
22.3%
Cole Freeman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
23.2%
Cole Freeman pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
20.0%
DEVITO, Tommy pass to the right incomplete intended for HIGHTOWER, Brian broken up by HAMPTON, JR., A.J. at the NU0. PENALTY NU Pass Interference on HAMPTON, JR., A.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the NU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0180% → 81%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
20.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face mask (6 yards) (Rod Heard II) to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
20.0%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
20.0%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.3%
DEVITO, Tommy pass to the left incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat broken up by TURNER, Devin at the NU0. PENALTY ILL Illegal Touch-Pass on BRYANT, Pat enforced 0 yards from the NU5 to the NU5, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
19.3%
Caleb Griffin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:0919% → 22%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
19.5%
Evan Hull run for 10 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
19.9%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
19.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Tarique Barnes) to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
20.6%
Malik Washington run for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
20.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
20.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
21.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
21.6%
Cole Freeman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0680% → 79%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
20.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
19.8%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
19.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
19.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
20.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5520% → 20%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
19.7%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+4
19.7%
Cole Freeman run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+4
19.9%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
19.7%
Luke Akers punt for 34 yds, downed at the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:2281% → 92%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
18.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
18.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+32
18.1%
Reggie Love III run for 32 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
17.6%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.1%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:2514% → 15%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.4%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
14.9%
Cole Freeman run for 8 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-11
15.2%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 28 fumbled, recovered by Nwest Cole FreemanSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+15
14.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaac Darkangelo) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
50
+15
15.9%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Malik Washington for 15 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
16.8%
Cole Freeman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
16.7%
FREEMAN, Cole pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANG, Marshall thrown to the ILL20. PENALTY NU Holding on WRATHER, Ben enforced 10 yards from the ILL35 to the ILL45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 45
0
14.7%
Cole Freeman pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.9%
run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
12.9%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
13.4%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Malik Washington for 11 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
14.0%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+2
13.4%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
13.3%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
12.8%
Cole Freeman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5990% → 95%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
10.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+17
10.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 17 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
10.0%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Xander Mueller for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+7
10.2%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-1
10.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
5.4%
Caleb Griffin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:288% → 2%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
8.0%
Andrew Clair run for 22 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
8.8%
Cole Freeman run for 4 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+12
8.9%
Andrew Clair run for 12 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+53
2.0%
Sydney Brown 53 Yd Fumble Return (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16INT TD
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:172% → 1%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.7%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
1.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
1.6%
FREEMAN, Cole pass to the right complete for 5 yards to WASHINGTON, Malik caught at the NU35 and advanced to the NU35, out of bounds. PENALTY NU Holding on SCHMIDT, Charlie enforced 10 yards from the NU30 to the NU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+20
1.6%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Jacob Gill for 20 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
1.8%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-2
1.7%
Cole Freeman pass complete to Evan Hull for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-39
1.2%
Sydney Brown 39 Yd Interception Return (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.2%
Malik Washington run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
1.2%
Jack Lausch run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
1.1%
Luke Akers punt for 26 yds, downed at the Illin 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
0.7%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.7%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
0.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
0.6%
Tommy DeVito pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:461% → 0%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.5%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+27
0.5%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Evan Hull for 27 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
0.5%
Evan Hull run for 17 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
0.5%
Malik Washington run for 10 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gabe Jacas) to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
0.5%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.6%
Jack Lausch run for no gain to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
0.6%
Jack Lausch sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
0.4%
Adam Stage 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:52100% → 100%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
0.4%
Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
0.4%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
0.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Hank Beatty for 5 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
0.4%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
0.4%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+43
0.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 43 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.3%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 3Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.2%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21INT
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:110% → 0%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
0.1%
Joseph Himon II run for 14 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.1%
Jack Lausch run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.1%
Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+23
0.1%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 23 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
0.2%
Jack Lausch run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
0.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
0.1%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 13
OPP 38
+18
0.1%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Donnie Gray for 18 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.2%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Jack Lausch pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:25
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q3 7:23
Sydney Brown 53 Yd Fumble Return (Caleb Griffin Kick)
-7
FG · Q3 8:51
Caleb Griffin 43 yd FG GOOD
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com