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IU

Indiana 39 at Michigan State 31

MSU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:39 · Jalen Berger run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOffense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 40Pregame prior+25.1Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:22: Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:51: Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:40: Shaun Shivers run for 79 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +6.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:17: Elijah Collins run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:59: Josh Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +28.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:02MSU 4th & 2 at IU 2, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:19IU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:39MSU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:08IU 4th & 21 at IU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:08IU 4th & 21 at IU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:59IU 4th & 7 at IU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10IU 4th & 13 at IU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:53MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:43MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:43IU 4th & 16 at IU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−2.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:14IU 4th & 4 at MSU 23, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:50MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16IU 4th & 1 at MSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−4.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−16.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:15MSU 4th & 2 at IU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−3.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−19.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36IU 4th & 4 at IU 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:46MSU 4th & 2 at IU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−5.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−14.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00MSU 4th & 5 at IU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−3.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−33.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:12IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:22MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:51MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:40IU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:17MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:59IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3819% → 20%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
81.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
81.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 11 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
81.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
80.3%
Dexter Williams II run for 34 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 4:1080% → 79%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
80.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 39 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
80.6%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
80.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
79.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 8 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
79.9%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+14
79.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
79.9%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for REED, Jayden broken up by WILLIAMS, Jaylin at the IND0. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Jaylin enforced 5 yards to the IND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
79.9%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for REED, Jayden broken up by WILLIAMS, Jaylin at the IND0. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Jaylin enforced 5 yards to the IND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
79.2%
Ben Patton 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2222% → 24%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
77.8%
Dexter Williams II run for 6 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
77.6%
Dexter Williams II run for no gain to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+15
77.8%
Dexter Williams II run for 15 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
77.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 6 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
77.4%
Shaun Shivers run for no gain to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
77.4%
Dexter Williams II run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 3
50
0
75.9%
James Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:4075% → 74%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
75.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
75.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+13
75.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 13 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
75.2%
Jayden Reed run for 3 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+14
75.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
75.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
75.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
75.8%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 1
50
-4
74.4%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3127% → 27%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
72.7%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
72.7%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
73.1%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-8
73.5%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Jacob Slade and Dashaun Mallory for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 43Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
73.4%
James Evans punt for 21 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
73.4%
James Evans punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4423% → 21%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
77.3%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 24Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
77.7%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+7
78.1%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Josh Henderson for 7 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
79.1%
James Evans punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3778% → 86%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
77.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 12 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+36
78.8%
Jalen Berger run for 36 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
78.5%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-10
78.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Maliq Carr) to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+5
78.4%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+13
78.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 13 yds to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.5%
THORNE, Payton pass up the middle incomplete intended for REED, Jayden thrown to the IND0. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on MULLEN, Tiawan enforced 3 yards to the IND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.5%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Ind 1Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0617% → 16%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
82.6%
Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-9
82.7%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Ben VanSumeren for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 2Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 16
OWN 2
+3
83.3%
Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 13
OWN 5
+19
83.8%
James Evans punt for 48 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 19 yds to the Ind 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:1986% → 86%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
86.3%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+8
86.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 8 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
83.8%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
84.5%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 2 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+13
84.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 13 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
82.7%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Keon broken up by PIERRE, Noah at the IND0. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on PIERRE, Noah enforced 4 yards to the IND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.7%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.6%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10Uncategorized
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:4410% → 11%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.7%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
89.9%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+14
90.1%
Josh Henderson run for 14 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
89.1%
WILLIAMS II, Dexter pass to the left complete for 10 yards to COBY, Andison caught at the IND41 and advanced to the IND43 (BRANTLEY, Charles), clock 00:00. PENALTY Before the snap, IND Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the IND33 to the IND28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 11:4291% → 84%
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
88.7%
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
89.2%
Jalen Berger run for 29 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
87.9%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
87.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+10
87.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 10 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
84.4%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Ind 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5990% → 90%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
90.2%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
90.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
89.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
83.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 79 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5783% → 82%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
82.4%
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
83.0%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
82.4%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 28 yds, downed at the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0018% → 15%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
82.1%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-10
83.1%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Avery Dunn for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 22
OWN 27
+6
84.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 6 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 16
OWN 33
+5
84.8%
James Evans punt for 41 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 5 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2684% → 95%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
83.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
83.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-15
83.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jayden Reed) to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
84.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
85.3%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
95.1%
Elijah Collins run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
86.1%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3521% → 23%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.1%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
79.7%
Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
80.2%
Josh Henderson run for no gain to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
76.8%
Charles Campbell 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2480% → 80%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.4%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
79.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
82.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
82.1%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
81.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
80.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 24 yds, downed at the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:5123% → 49%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
77.5%
Dexter Williams II run for 6 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+18
76.0%
Jaylin Lucas run for 18 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
74.4%
Dexter Williams II run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+30
74.4%
Dexter Williams II run for 30 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
73.4%
Dexter Williams II run for 5 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
75.6%
Dexter Williams II run for 1 yd to the MchSt 6Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
77.4%
Dexter Williams II run for 3 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
79.3%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.0%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:4466% → 66%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
65.7%
Elijah Collins run for 19 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
70.2%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
70.0%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
69.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 8 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
71.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
69.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 8 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
66.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3941% → 44%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
58.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 27Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
59.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
59.2%
Dexter Williams II run for 6 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
57.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
55.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
56.4%
Dexter Williams II run for 2 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
55.8%
James Evans punt for 32 yds, downed at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23MISSED FG
21 plays · 70 yds · 5:3655% → 42%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.7%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+22
54.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 22 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
57.8%
BERGER, Jalen rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU48 (FITZGERALD, Bryant). PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the MSU46 to the MSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+10
54.9%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right complete for 5 yards to MOSLEY, Tre caught at the MSU41 and advanced to the MSU41 (MATTHEWS, Devon). PENALTY IND Holding on WILLIAMS, Jaylin enforced 10 yards from the MSU36 to the MSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
60.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 16 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
61.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 2 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
61.0%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
62.7%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+5
57.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
63.9%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+11
64.1%
Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
64.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Ind 6Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
64.0%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
45.5%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 5Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
42.1%
Ben Patton 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
65.6%
Elijah Collins run for 16 yds to the Ind 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
65.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Ind 15Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
65.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 4 yds to the Ind 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
65.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
63.1%
Ben Patton 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25MISSED FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0059% → 50%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.1%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+7
41.1%
Josh Henderson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
41.1%
Josh Henderson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
41.1%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-2
43.3%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 9Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+37
50.3%
Charles Campbell 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0015% → 10%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
13.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the Ind 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
13.6%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
15.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 10
0
10.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:59
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)
-28.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-10.4
TD · Q3 6:17
Elijah Collins run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com