Try the model
ILL

Illinois 17 at Michigan 19

MICH
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+10.6MICH 52.6%Jake Moody 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 13 · Q4 12:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:31 · Jake Moody 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense−4.2Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:43: Chase Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +12.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:36: Chase Brown run for 37 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +22.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:31: Jake Moody 41 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +10.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 3:14: Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +14.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:09: Jake Moody 35 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +43.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:03ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09MICH 4th & 10 at ILL 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:55ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:20MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:39ILL 4th & 1 at MICH 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:47MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:03ILL 4th & 6 at MICH 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:51ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:10MICH 4th & 7 at ILL 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:41MICH 4th & 6 at ILL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:06MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:05ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−4.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:31MICH 4th & 7 at ILL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−13.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:06ILL 4th & 8 at MICH 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:32MICH 4th & 4 at ILL 23, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%−1.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−14.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:14MICH 4th & 11 at ILL 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−9.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−18.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−11.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:53MICH 4th & 3 at ILL 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−2.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−11.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:09MICH 4th & 5 at ILL 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−40.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−55.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:28MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:43ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:36ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2089% → 89%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
88.9%
Blake Corum run for 37 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
88.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 16 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
88.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Max Bredeson for 4 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+11
88.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 11 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
88.5%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
88.3%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Illin 2Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
88.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0812% → 12%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
88.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
88.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 64 yds, downed at the Mich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:4788% → 88%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
88.4%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 4Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+3
88.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+41
88.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 41 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
88.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 46 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, recovered by Mich J.J. McCarthySimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+17
88.1%
C.J. Stokes run for 17 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
88.2%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 9
OPP 36
-1
88.1%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
87.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0312% → 12%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
87.6%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
87.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
87.6%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+5
87.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 45 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:2588% → 87%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
87.7%
C.J. Stokes run for 3 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
87.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
87.4%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
87.1%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
87.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+2
87.0%
J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
86.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 31 yds, downed at the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:3113% → 14%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
86.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Miles Scott for 10 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
86.5%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
86.3%
Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Miles ScottSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
86.2%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+8
85.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
85.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
85.3%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
85.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
85.6%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:2487% → 85%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
86.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
86.2%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-10
86.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-5
85.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+9
85.6%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
85.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:3215% → 18%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
85.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 18 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
84.9%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
50
+12
84.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 12 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
84.5%
Isaiah Williams run for 13 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
83.5%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+3
83.4%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
83.3%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
83.2%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
83.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-5
85.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
82.3%
Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:2083% → 84%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.7%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
83.3%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
82.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
82.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+25
82.5%
Blake Corum run for 25 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
83.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
84.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
84.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Illin 13 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by Illin Jer'Zhan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:2318% → 17%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
82.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+4
82.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+4
82.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
81.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-9
82.6%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 30 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+3
83.5%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4920% → 19%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.5%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
80.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 6 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.4%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
81.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3082% → 85%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
82.1%
C.J. Stokes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
50
+5
81.9%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+14
81.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 14 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
82.2%
C.J. Stokes run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
82.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
81.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
84.6%
Jake Moody 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:1417% → 33%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
83.3%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
82.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+8
81.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
81.4%
Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
79.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
81.0%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
80.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 17 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
79.6%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
79.4%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
67.0%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:5473% → 71%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.1%
C.J. Stokes run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
74.4%
C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
71.6%
C.J. Stokes run for 9 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
73.5%
C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+4
71.6%
Isaiah Gash run for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+20
70.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Isaiah Gash for 20 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
74.2%
C.J. Stokes run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+3
72.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
70.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:5935% → 60%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
65.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 16 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
61.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 10 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
39.6%
Chase Brown run for 37 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0548% → 41%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.6%
C.J. Stokes run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
47.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
45.2%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
40.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 28 yds, downed at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:5562% → 61%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
37.7%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
37.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-11
35.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by IllinSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 19
OWN 34
+40
39.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 44 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 40 yds to the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2747% → 53%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
47.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 12 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
48.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-4
48.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Isaiah Gash for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+7
42.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
52.6%
Jake Moody 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0955% → 63%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.1%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
42.5%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
43.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 4 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
41.8%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
37.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
36.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 18 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
34.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
34.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
34.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+2
36.8%
Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:3346% → 56%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
45.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 27 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
48.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
48.4%
Isaiah Gash run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+11
46.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
52.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
51.4%
Isaiah Gash run for 1 yd to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
43.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+9
42.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
47.9%
C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
45.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
41.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
55.8%
Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:5157% → 56%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.9%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
40.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
42.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+4
43.9%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
44.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:0157% → 93%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
57.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
55.0%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
49.6%
Tavierre Dunlap run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+8
46.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Isaiah Gash for 8 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
49.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
54.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
53.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
49.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
93.0%
Jake Moody 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0120% → 16%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:09
Jake Moody 35 yd FG GOOD
+43.3
TD · Q3 1:36
Chase Brown run for 37 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-22.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com