2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:23 · James Evans punt for 53 yds , Reis Stocksdale returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 29 Reis Stocksdale fumbled, recovered by OhSt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:31: Dallan Hayden run for 14 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:37: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 58 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:04: Dexter Williams II pass complete to AJ Barner for 7 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:41: Miyan Williams run for 48 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:33: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6IU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
- Q1 13:10OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, tiedClose callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:01IU 4th & 4 at IU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 8:08IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 2:46IU 4th & 5 at IU 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 13:05OSU 4th & 8 at IU 43, up 14Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%34% to convertField goal97.8%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call97.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:08IU 4th & 6 at IU 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 9:08IU 4th & 4 at IU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 7:05OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 36, up 21Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:00IU 4th & 3 at IU 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 1:33OSU 4th & 1 at IU 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%71% to convertField goal98.6%−0.280% to makePunt97.9%−1.0average punt
- Q3 13:08IU 4th & 2 at OSU 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%57% to convertField goal1.3%−0.270% to makePunt0.3%−1.2average punt
- Q3 11:25OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 32, up 21Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:48IU 4th & 17 at IU 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 8:53IU 4th & 7 at IU 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:47IU 4th & 16 at IU 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:15OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 49, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 14:23IU 4th & 3 at IU 17, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:32IU 4th & 4 at IU 40, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:13IU 4th & 2 at IU 41, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:42OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:31OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:37OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:04IU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:41OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:33OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:38OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:07OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:03IU Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:49OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
99.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 47 yds , Connor Delp returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:591% → 1%
OSUDrive 3TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q1 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:241% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:2999% → 99%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
98.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 34 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
98.8%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 19 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by IndSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+9
98.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 9 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-2
98.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to AJ Barner for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD1 play · 58 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
99.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 58 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:191% → 2%
OSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
IUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:522% → 2%
OSUDrive 11TD3 plays · 57 yds · 0:1998% → 99%
IUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:211% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
IUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:561% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15DOWNS12 plays · 66 yds · 4:1399% → 99%
IUDrive 16END OF HALF11 plays · 40 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
98.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 6 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
98.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Malachi Holt-Bennett for 28 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-8
98.7%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Lathan Ransom and Steele Chambers for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 18
OPP 37
-5
99.3%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Ty Hamilton and Jack Sawyer for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 52 yds · 1:321% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3399% → 99%
Q3 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Connor Delp at the Ind 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:251% → 1%
OSUDrive 20TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0799% → 100%
IUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q3 8:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+24
99.8%
James Evans punt for 39 yds, downed at the OHIOST 33 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD3 plays · 52 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
IUDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:280% → 0%
OSUDrive 24PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 4 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+16
99.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 16 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Connor Delp at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25FUMBLE4 plays · 7 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q4 14:23
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+53
99.9%
James Evans punt for 53 yds , Reis Stocksdale returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 29 Reis Stocksdale fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26TD1 play · 71 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27FUMBLE5 plays · 6 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 12:32
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.9%
James Evans punt for 42 yds , Reis Stocksdale returns for no gain to the OhSt 18 Reis Stocksdale fumbled, recovered by Ind Bryson BondsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28TD2 plays · 18 yds · 0:070% → 0%
OSUDrive 29TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
99.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
50
+13
99.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 13 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Kamryn Babb for 8 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 6:13
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
99.9%
James Evans punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 31END OF GAME10 plays · 44 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:33
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 10:41
Miyan Williams run for 48 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 0:04
Dexter Williams II pass complete to AJ Barner for 7 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)
-0.5