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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:53 · Brian Buschini punt for 54 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 4 yds to the Mich 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:26: Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:46: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:01: Jake Moody 30 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:15: Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Neb 13 for a 1ST down — MICH win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:57: J.J. McCarthy 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:14NEB 4th & 10 at MICH 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal4.1%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q1 7:14MICH 4th & 2 at NEB 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.1%57% to convertField goal95.0%−0.154% to makePunt94.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:53NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q1 1:27MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%average punt
- Q2 14:50NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 33, down 7Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:54MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
- Q2 12:10NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 27, down 7Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:10NEB 4th & 14 at MICH 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.317% to convertField goalTheir call5.4%77% to makePunt4.3%−1.1average punt
- Q2 0:40MICH 4th & 1 at NEB 33, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.9%71% to convertField goal93.7%−0.349% to makePunt93.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:11MICH 4th & 8 at NEB 41, up 14Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%34% to convertField goal94.5%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call94.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:55NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q4 13:06NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 7:46NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:52NEB 4th & 16 at NEB 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:17MICH 4th & 5 at NEB 25, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%66% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 4:26MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:46MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:57MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:39MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:343% → 3%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Trey Palmer for no gain to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+30
97.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Washington for 30 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
97.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Trey Palmer for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-1
96.8%
Chubba Purdy sacked by Junior Colson for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD13 plays · 80 yds · 6:1097% → 96%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+25
96.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 25 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
95.6%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Wilson, Roman, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Gifford, Isaac) 10 yards to the NEBRASKA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:574% → 4%
Q1 2:53
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+4
95.9%
Brian Buschini punt for 54 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1796% → 96%
Q1 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-8
95.8%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Garrett Nelson for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:274% → 5%
MICHDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5096% → 95%
Q2 13:54
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
95.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:395% → 5%
Q2 12:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+9
95.1%
Brian Buschini punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:5495% → 97%
NEBDrive 9FG14 plays · 56 yds · 4:264% → 5%
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.8%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Trey Palmer for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
95.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Alante Brown for 13 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
95.5%
Purdy, Chubba pass incomplete to Vokolek, Travis, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Upshaw, Taylor) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-7
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Logan SmothersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG14 plays · 55 yds · 3:5895% → 96%
NEBDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 4:3596% → 95%
NEBDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:055% → 5%
MICHDrive 14TD10 plays · 65 yds · 5:3395% → 99%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
95.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the Neb 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:391% → 1%
MICHDrive 16TD6 plays · 76 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 9:39
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Ronnie Bell 29 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy, fumbled, recovered by Andrel Anthony for a TD (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 4 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Trey Palmer for 8 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
99.9%
Logan Smothers sacked by Mason Graham for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 14
OWN 27
-3
99.9%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Trey Palmer for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+42
99.9%
Brian Buschini punt for 42 yds , A.J. Henning returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG10 plays · 43 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
NEBDrive 19END OF GAME4 plays · 9 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:57
J.J. McCarthy 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+2.5
TD · Q2 8:46
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
+1.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:15
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Neb 13 for a 1ST down
+1.2