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WIS

Wisconsin 10 at Iowa 24

IOWA
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:58 · Tory Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Pregame prior−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:24: Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +4.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:58: Cooper DeJean 32 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens Kick) — IOWA win probability +12.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:52: Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 51 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +11.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:49: Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 14 — IOWA win probability +4.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:52: Spencer Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +13.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11WIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:05IOWA 4th & 15 at IOWA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:10WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14WIS 4th & 5 at IOWA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:35IOWA 4th & 22 at IOWA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:58IOWA 4th & 17 at IOWA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:38WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:44IOWA 4th & 6 at WIS 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:28WIS 4th & 10 at IOWA 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:24IOWA 4th & 18 at IOWA 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:04IOWA 4th & 4 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:03WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:24IOWA 4th & 18 at IOWA 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−4.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:35WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:55IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−2.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:01WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:38WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:13IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:55WIS 4th & 7 at IOWA 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:21IOWA 4th & 1 at WIS 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−1.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:54IOWA 4th & 8 at WIS 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:24IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:58IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52WIS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:52IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5549% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
48.5%
Gavin Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
48.5%
Spencer Petras run for no gain to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
48.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds, downed at the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5551% → 51%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.8%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
48.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
48.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
49.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 49 yds, downed at the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5549% → 50%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
49.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Diante Vines for 6 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
49.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+8
48.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 8 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
49.1%
Gavin Williams run for 19 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
49.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Diante Vines for 15 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
49.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-9
50.1%
Spencer Petras sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:0151% → 51%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
49.0%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
49.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 3 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
49.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Braelon Allen) to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+19
49.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 19 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.7%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Iowa 29Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
48.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+1
48.9%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Iowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
48.7%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
48.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+6
49.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
49.0%
Nate Van Zelst 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:3949% → 48%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.9%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
48.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 3 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
48.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Diante Vines for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
48.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 10 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
49.3%
Leshon Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-5
48.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 20
OWN 27
-2
48.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+11
47.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds , Dean Engram returns for 11 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1253% → 51%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
47.5%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
47.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
48.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+15
49.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds , Cooper DeJean returns for 15 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:4149% → 48%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
49.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
50.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
50.7%
(13:37) JOHNSON, Kaleb rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the WIS45 (WOHLER, Hunter), clock 13:34. PENALTY IOW Holding on STEPHENS, Beau enforced 10 yards from the IOW46 to the IOW36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
49.2%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 20
OWN 36
-3
49.1%
Gavin Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 23
OWN 33
+6
48.2%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
48.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4852% → 50%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
48.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
49.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
50.1%
punt blocked by Deontae Craig blocked by Deontae CraigSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2452% → 57%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
52.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 13 yds to the Wisc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4545% → 44%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
54.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
54.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
55.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+11
56.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 33 yds , Cooper DeJean returns for 11 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4057% → 56%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
57.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
57.3%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
55.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:0745% → 44%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
54.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 19 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
54.2%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
54.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+16
54.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 16 yds Skyler Bell fumbled, recovered by Wisc Chimere Dike for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
53.5%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
53.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
54.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
56.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:5757% → 57%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
57.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
57.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
58.0%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-9
59.7%
Spencer Petras sacked by Maema Njongmeta for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-4
56.7%
Spencer Petras sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 18
OWN 23
+3
57.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds , Dean Engram returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1341% → 28%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
59.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-32
71.7%
Cooper DeJean 32 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:0528% → 38%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.9%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
71.5%
Graham Mertz run for 15 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
70.6%
Graham Mertz sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+13
70.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 13 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
68.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Lukas Van Ness for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 18
OWN 49
-5
73.4%
(01:03) MERTZ, Graham pass incomplete intended for GUERENDO, Isaac broken up by LEE, Logan at the WIS47, clock 01:00. PENALTY Before the snap, WIS Illegal Motion enforced 5 yards from the WIS49 to the WIS44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 23
OWN 44
+5
73.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 5 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+51
62.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 51 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4860% → 60%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.3%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4441% → 40%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 8 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
56.5%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
57.9%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-15
55.9%
(13:25) ALLEN, Braelon rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the WIS45 (HIGGINS, Jay), clock 13:22. PENALTY WIS Personal Foul on NELSON, Jack enforced 15 yards from the WIS44 to the WIS29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
59.6%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5562% → 63%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
62.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+6
61.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+1
61.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 4
50
0
63.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 30 yds, downed at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5338% → 35%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-14
61.7%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 14 yards to the Wisc 6 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by Wisc Graham MertzSimilar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 24
OWN 6
+7
63.0%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+4
64.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 4 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
65.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 56 yds, downed at the Iowa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2664% → 62%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
64.3%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-8
62.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Kamo'i Latu for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
62.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4139% → 37%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
61.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
61.6%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
60.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+15
62.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 43 yds , Cooper DeJean returns for 15 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3065% → 65%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
65.1%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
63.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 11 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
66.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-7
68.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by Jordan Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
65.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 58 yds, downed at the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4536% → 33%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
64.1%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
64.8%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+5
66.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
64.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 9Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+4
65.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 4 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
66.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+41
67.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 46 yds , Cooper DeJean returns for 41 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5772% → 86%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
72.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+9
72.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 9 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
72.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 4Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
72.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.0%
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0517% → 13%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
83.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
83.9%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+17
85.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 17 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.5%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
82.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
83.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Trey Wedig) to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
86.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
87.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds, downed at the Iowa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1886% → 87%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
85.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 23Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
87.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-5
86.8%
(10:23) TAYLOR, Tory punt 57 yards to the WIS18, ENGRAM, Dean return 3 yards to the WIS21 (HEINZ, Jamison), clock 10:14. PENALTY Before the snap, IOW Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the IOW25 to the IOW20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+4
87.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds , Dean Engram returns for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:1013% → 12%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
86.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
50
-5
85.0%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
89.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 4 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+4
87.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 4 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
88.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 28FG
14 plays · 27 yds · 4:5692% → 99%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
92.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
92.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
92.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 5 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.7%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
93.9%
Leshon Williams run for 9 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
94.0%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+5
94.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
95.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
96.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
96.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
98.8%
Drew Stevens 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:223% → 3%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
97.4%
Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.0%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
99.2%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the Wisc 18Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+4
99.2%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:52
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 1:58
Cooper DeJean 32 Yd Interception Return (Drew Stevens Kick)
+12.7
TD · Q2 0:52
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 51 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com