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Maryland 10 at Wisconsin 23

WIS
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:50 · Graham Mertz pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+24.8Pregame prior+3.0Score differential+12.6Garbage-time factor+11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:21: Braelon Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +4.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:16: Isaac Guerendo run for 89 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +8.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:20: Timeout MARYLAND, clock 08:20 — WIS win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:29: Chad Ryland 39 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +3.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:08: Nate Van Zelst 35 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 11MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 13:37MD 4th & 2 at MD 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:53MD 4th & 8 at WIS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:49WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:22MD 4th & 4 at MD 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:45MD 4th & 2 at MD 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:45WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:29MD 4th & 7 at MD 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:22MD 4th & 12 at MD 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:37WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 42, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:07MD 4th & 9 at MD 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:09WIS 4th & 12 at MD 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:21WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:29MD 4th & 10 at WIS 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−6.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:55WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:54MD 4th & 1 at MD 22, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:08WIS 4th & 3 at MD 17, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−5.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:50WIS 4th & 6 at MD 15, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−3.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:26MD 4th & 2 at MD 23, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:36WIS 4th & 2 at MD 15, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−3.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:48MD 4th & 18 at MD 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:33WIS 4th & 3 at MD 10, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:28MD 4th & 2 at MD 35, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MD made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 1:21WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:16WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:57MD Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1837% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
63.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
63.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+7
63.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
63.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 60 yds, downed at the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2663% → 63%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
63.2%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 7Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
63.2%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
63.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
62.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 29 yds, downed at the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1837% → 37%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.9%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
62.9%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
62.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 8
OPP 35
-6
63.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Keeanu Benton for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0464% → 63%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
63.5%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
63.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
63.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
63.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:2737% → 37%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
63.2%
Ramon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+6
63.2%
Ramon Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+3
63.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 57 yds, downed at the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 6:0163% → 69%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
63.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
63.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
62.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 8 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
63.4%
Braelon Allen run for 46 yds to the WISCONSIN 16 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (Chimere Dike) to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 13
OWN 35
+1
63.0%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+36
63.1%
Skyler Bell run for 36 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
64.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
64.1%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
63.8%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
64.1%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
64.1%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
68.5%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3633% → 32%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
67.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
67.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
68.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 44 yds , Dean Engram returns for 16 yds to the Wisc 49 WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0068% → 68%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
68.3%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
68.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on BELL, Skyler enforced (Skyler Bell) to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
68.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+8
67.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 50 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 8 yds to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:1632% → 31%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
68.0%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+15
67.7%
Roman Hemby run for 15 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
66.9%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+5
67.9%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+5
68.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
69.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds, downed at the Wisc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
77.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 89 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:4924% → 21%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
75.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 2 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
75.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+15
76.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 15 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
75.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
75.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-6
75.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+3
78.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds , Dean Engram returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4579% → 81%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
79.0%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+8
78.9%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
79.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+11
79.0%
Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
79.7%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
80.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
80.6%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 2 yds to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3020% → 18%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
79.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
79.9%
Ramon Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-2
80.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by C.J. Goetz for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
81.7%
Colton Spangler punt for 48 yds, downed at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 1:5882% → 86%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
82.4%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+21
82.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 21 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
83.5%
Graham Mertz sacked by Greg China-Rose for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+15
83.3%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for BELL, Skyler thrown to the MAR11. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on BENNETT, Jakorian enforced 15 yards to the MAR30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
83.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
83.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+7
83.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
85.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-3
84.8%
Graham Mertz sacked by Greg China-Rose for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+1
84.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
86.4%
Nate Van Zelst 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
[NH] Kneel down by MAR at MAR24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3485% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
85.4%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
85.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
85.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+16
84.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 16 yds to the Mary 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:5215% → 14%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 12 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
84.6%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-2
83.7%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+15
84.4%
Roman Hemby run for 15 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
83.1%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
82.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 1 yd to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+7
84.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 7 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
82.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-9
86.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+9
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
85.7%
Chad Ryland 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3489% → 89%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
88.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jackson Acker for 24 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
89.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
88.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
88.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for no gain to the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0113% → 12%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
87.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
87.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+9
87.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+3
88.5%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds , Dean Engram returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:4690% → 95%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.0%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
90.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Jack Nelson) to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-3
89.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Tommy Akingbesote for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+15
89.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaishawn Barham) to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.6%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
90.6%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for DIKE, Chimere broken up by COPELAND, Jacob at the MAR16. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on BENNETT, Jakorian enforced 15 yards to the MAR24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
90.8%
Vinny Anthony run for 3 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
90.8%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+1
90.5%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
94.9%
Nate Van Zelst 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:146% → 6%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.0%
Ramon Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
93.7%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Ramon thrown to the MAR30. PENALTY MAR Holding on DUNCAN, Jaelyn enforced 10 yards from the MAR28 to the MAR18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
94.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5696% → 96%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
95.6%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
95.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 6
OPP 15
0
95.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:245% → 5%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
94.8%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
94.5%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
94.6%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
95.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5097% → 97%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
96.6%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
96.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
96.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+33
96.7%
Nate Van Zelst 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:484% → 4%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
96.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Maema Njongmeta for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 12Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
96.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 18
OWN 12
0
96.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
96.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 42 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:1597% → 99%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
97.0%
Braelon Allen run for 20 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
97.0%
Skyler Bell run for 17 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
97.1%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-1
97.1%
Skyler Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 13Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+3
97.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
99.0%
Nate Van Zelst 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:311% → 3%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Coltin Deery) to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+13
99.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 13 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Ramon Brown run for no gain to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+10
99.1%
Ramon Brown run for 10 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.1%
Ramon Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+21
99.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 21 yds CJ Dippre fumbled, recovered by Mary Jeshaun Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
98.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Ramon Brown for 1 yd to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+3
98.9%
Ramon Brown run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+7
99.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 7 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
98.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 13 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
98.9%
Ramon Brown run for 4 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 5 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Kneel down by WIS at MAR49 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Kneel down by WIS at MAR50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:16
Isaac Guerendo run for 89 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
+8.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:20
Timeout MARYLAND, clock 08:20
+5.9
TD · Q1 1:21
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com