Try the model
OSU

Ohio State 21 at Northwestern 7

NU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:08 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior−0.2Home team on offense−49.4Score differential−20.0Garbage-time factor−12.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:26: Emeka Egbuka 15 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:44: Miyan Williams 27 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick) — OSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:15: Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 41 — OSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:45: Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12 — NU win probability +3.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:21: Miyan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:57OSU 4th & 14 at OSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54NU 4th & 6 at NU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:21OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:03OSU 4th & 6 at NU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:11OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:06NU 4th & 4 at NU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:07OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:49NU 4th & 8 at OSU 25, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:00OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:38NU 4th & 2 at OSU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:17OSU 4th & 16 at OSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:55NU 4th & 16 at NU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:05OSU 4th & 1 at NU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−1.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:45NU 4th & 1 at NU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.7%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:49NU 4th & 9 at OSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:24OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:41NU 4th & 8 at OSU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:11OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:27NU 4th & 3 at NU 18, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−1.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:34NU 4th & 9 at OSU 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:08OSU 4th & 2 at NU 34, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:45NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:26OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:44OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:21OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:5899% → 99%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
1.2%
Williams, Miyan rush for 6 yards to the OHIOST36, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Jones, Matthew) 10 yards to the OHIOST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+6
1.2%
Emeka Egbuka run for 6 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
1.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
1.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
1.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
1.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
1.4%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+51
1.4%
Luke Akers punt for 56 yds for a touchback NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1299% → 98%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.5%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Devin O'Rourke) to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
1.5%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
1.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Gee Scott Jr.Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
1.5%
C.J. Stroud run for 7 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
1.6%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
1.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
1.6%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
1.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
1.7%
Jesse Mirco punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:002% → 3%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
1.8%
Cam Porter run for 13 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
1.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+10
1.9%
Cam Porter run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
50
+12
2.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 12 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
2.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 8 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
2.1%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
2.2%
Evan Hull run for 8 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
2.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
2.7%
Evan Hull 16 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
2.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
2.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 7 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
2.9%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
3.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:543% → 4%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
3.0%
Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-10
3.2%
Hull, Evan rush for loss of 1 yard to the NORTHWSTRN37, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Schmidt, Charlie) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+3
3.3%
Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+4
3.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+18
3.5%
Luke Akers punt for 52 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for 18 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
3.6%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
3.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
3.8%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
4.2%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:065% → 6%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
4.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
4.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 4 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
4.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
5.2%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
5.5%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-2
5.9%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 25Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+4
5.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:2594% → 94%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
5.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 15 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
5.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
5.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
6.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
6.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 4:076% → 9%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
6.4%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
6.7%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+17
7.1%
Evan Hull run for 17 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
7.9%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
8.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+5
9.5%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
9.4%
Hunter Renner punt for 31 yds, downed at the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5891% → 89%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
9.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 11 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
9.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
10.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
10.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 11
OWN 28
-5
10.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
10.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 77 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:1311% → 11%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
10.5%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
11.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Brendan SullivanSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-6
10.5%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
10.5%
Hunter Renner punt for 32 yds, downed at the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:0989% → 93%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
10.8%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
11.2%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
11.6%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+16
12.8%
C.J. Stroud run for 16 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
11.6%
C.J. Stroud run for 6 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
7.1%
Emeka Egbuka 15 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · -4 yds · 2:2010% → 11%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.7%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
10.2%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
10.2%
Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
11.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 20
OWN 29
-4
11.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 24
OWN 25
-4
10.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:5512% → 16%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.0%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
12.5%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
12.8%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.5%
Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
15.8%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
16.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
15.8%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3188% → 92%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
12.5%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
13.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+12
14.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
12.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
13.1%
Miyan Williams run for 7 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+27
7.7%
Miyan Williams 27 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:259% → 12%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
9.4%
Cam Porter run for 19 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
10.0%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
11.6%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+9
11.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
12.8%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-2
13.4%
Malik Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
13.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for no gain to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
11.7%
Hunter Renner punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:1990% → 89%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
10.2%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
10.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 5 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+11
10.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 11 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
10.2%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
10.5%
Miyan Williams run for 12 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
10.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 2 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
10.2%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
11.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19DOWNS
17 plays · 60 yds · 6:4313% → 16%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
13.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Vincent Picozzi) to the Nwest 2Similar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+9
13.3%
Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+1
13.0%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+15
12.4%
Brendan Sullivan run for 15 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
13.9%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
13.8%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+11
13.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 11 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
16.0%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
15.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
14.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 10 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
18.2%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+5
16.3%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
17.7%
Brendan Sullivan run for 8 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
18.3%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
18.4%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
18.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Genson Hooper PriceSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
16.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0489% → 87%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
11.3%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
11.0%
C.J. Stroud run for 3 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
11.2%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
12.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1816% → 14%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
16.3%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+4
16.3%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+2
14.6%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
14.0%
Hunter Renner punt for 44 yds, downed at the OhSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5590% → 97%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
10.4%
Miyan Williams run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
50
+1
9.7%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+44
9.0%
C.J. Stroud run for 44 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
8.6%
C.J. Stroud run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.8%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:263% → 3%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
2.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
3.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
3.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
2.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob GillSimilar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
2.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob GillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 18 yds · 3:1998% → 99%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
2.3%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
2.3%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+6
2.3%
Miyan Williams run for 6 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
1.7%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
1.7%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+7
1.4%
Miyan Williams run for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-4
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
1.1%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:44
Miyan Williams 27 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)
-5.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:15
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 41
-5
TD · Q2 2:26
Emeka Egbuka 15 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com