Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 23 at Illinois 15

ILL
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:51 · Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense−6.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:45: Jarek Broussard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:57: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +17.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:48: Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 47 — ILL win probability +6.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:27: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy DeVito pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion) — ILL win probability +14.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:06: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 22 — MSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:30ILL 4th & 2 at MSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:36MSU 4th & 3 at ILL 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:15MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:33ILL 4th & 19 at MSU 29, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:19ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:18MSU 4th & 10 at ILL 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:28ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−3.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:51MSU 4th & 4 at ILL 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−12.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:19ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.3%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:30MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:11ILL 4th & 2 at MSU 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−15.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:37MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:51ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 13, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:46ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:03ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:21MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:45MSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:57MSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:27ILL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Sydney Brown return for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:1885% → 84%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
84.5%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
84.4%
Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
84.4%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
84.3%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+7
84.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.1%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.9%
Tommy DeVito run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.6%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4117% → 17%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
83.4%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
83.2%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+8
83.2%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
82.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds, downed at the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:3683% → 84%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
83.1%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+60
84.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 60 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 6:2116% → 18%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.0%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
83.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.7%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
83.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 21 yds to the ILLINOIS 38 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniel Barker) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
83.3%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+15
83.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tahveon Nicholson) to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
82.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+11
82.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
82.6%
Broussard, Jarek rush for 4 yards to the ILLINOIS15, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Brown, Spencer) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+13
82.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 13 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
82.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+10
82.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
82.3%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 10Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
82.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 0
OPP 7
+4
82.5%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY ILLINOIS offside (Newton, Jer'Zhan) 4 yards to the ILLINOIS3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
81.7%
Ben Patton 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2382% → 81%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.7%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
81.7%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+18
81.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 18 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
82.0%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
81.6%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
81.1%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
80.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 19 yds, downed at the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:4319% → 25%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
80.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+34
80.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 34 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
79.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 7 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+16
79.4%
Jalen Berger run for 16 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.3%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.0%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5478% → 78%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.6%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
77.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.6%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
78.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
78.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Josh McCray for 9 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-4
78.1%
Josh McCray run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+18
77.5%
Chase Brown run for 18 yds to the MchSt 22 Chase Brown fumbled, forced by Xavier Henderson, recovered by MchSt Aaron BruleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5926% → 25%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
74.5%
Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
73.8%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-6
73.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton and Calvin Hart Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 17
OWN 26
0
74.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 17
OWN 26
+2
74.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 68 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 2 yds to the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10DOWNS
17 plays · 63 yds · 4:3674% → 70%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
74.4%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+11
74.4%
Tommy DeVito run for 11 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.7%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
75.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
73.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 17 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
75.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
75.3%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
76.1%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+4
74.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+12
74.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 12 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
75.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
75.2%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-15
73.6%
DeVito, Tommy pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MICHIGANST23 (Mallory, Dashaun), PENALTY ILLINOIS illegal block (Brown, Chase) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 24
OPP 34
+5
72.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 19
OPP 29
0
70.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:1030% → 33%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
69.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
67.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3670% → 66%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
69.5%
Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
69.8%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
69.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-8
67.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 13
OWN 14
+53
66.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, downed at the ILLINOIS 48 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5335% → 35%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
65.3%
Jalen Berger run for 13 yds to the MchSt 46 Jalen Berger fumbled, forced by Jartavius Martin, recovered by MchSt - Team for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
63.7%
Jalen Berger run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
62.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+1
63.2%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
63.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
65.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4567% → 62%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
66.7%
Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
66.4%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
64.9%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
65.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Hank Beatty for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
65.0%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
63.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
62.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 6 yds, downed at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:3943% → 61%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
57.5%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+7
57.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
57.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+9
60.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
54.5%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
39.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2144% → 42%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
44.1%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
44.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
44.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-3
42.0%
Tommy DeVito run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 41 Tommy DeVito fumbled, recovered by Illin Chase BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:1463% → 82%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
37.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 21 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
35.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
18.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:2127% → 39%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
26.5%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
25.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 4
50
+8
25.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 8 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
25.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 13 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
25.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 16 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
24.3%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
24.1%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
38.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy DeVito pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4071% → 71%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
29.1%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
27.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
26.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
28.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:1229% → 27%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
28.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 10 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
29.1%
DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Bryant, Pat, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Brantley, Charles) 12 yards to the ILLINOIS23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
29.4%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+12
30.7%
Chase Brown run for 12 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
31.7%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+18
30.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Josh McCray for 3 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben VanSumeren) to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
33.0%
DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Reiman, Tip, PENALTY ILLINOIS illegal formation 5 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+7
30.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+9
31.7%
Reggie Love III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
33.7%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
32.1%
Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-1
30.1%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+1
26.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:2983% → 90%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
17.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
16.8%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
14.0%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
11.6%
Jalen Berger run for 24 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
9.7%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-5
9.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 17
OWN 49
0
9.6%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 17
OWN 49
0
9.5%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
10.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3812% → 7%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
11.5%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
11.3%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Reggie Love IIISimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-6
10.6%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 10
OWN 13
-4
7.4%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Cal Haladay and Derrick Harmon for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:3995% → 97%
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
5.1%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
3.3%
Jayden Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 0
OPP 9
-5
3.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
2.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 0
OPP 14
+31
3.1%
Ben Patton 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:565% → 6%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
4.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
3.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+22
3.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 22 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
4.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 2
50
+23
5.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 23 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
7.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
6.7%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+2
5.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 2 yds Brian Hightower fumbled, forced by Chester Kimbrough, recovered by Illin Brian HightowerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:57
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 5:45
Jarek Broussard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q4 14:27
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy DeVito pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com