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OSU

Ohio State 44 at Penn State 31

PSU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:39 · Jesse Mirco punt for 52 yds , Parker Washington returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−27.4Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 0:10: Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:26: Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +24.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:51: TreVeyon Henderson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +25.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:17: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 24 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +35.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:49: Jake Pinegar 44 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:47OSU 4th & 7 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44OSU 4th & 6 at PSU 35, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:46PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:02OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 29, up 10
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:39OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:14OSU 4th & 15 at PSU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18OSU 4th & 7 at PSU 43, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%
    28% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:21PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.5%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:46PSU 4th & 2 at OSU 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−1.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−11.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:22OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:11PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−2.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:10OSU 4th & 2 at PSU 22, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%−2.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−15.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:38PSU 4th & 1 at OSU 13, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−3.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−20.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:26PSU 4th & 1 at OSU 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−4.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−24.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:49PSU 4th & 3 at OSU 27, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 2:48OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:13PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:50PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:26PSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:51OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:17OSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:52OSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:42OSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:12PSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 5:0886% → 84%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+37
14.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 37 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
14.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+10
14.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 10 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
15.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
15.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-5
15.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+8
16.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 8 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
16.2%
Noah Ruggles 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4716% → 17%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
16.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
16.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 11 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
17.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
17.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-2
17.0%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Zach Harrison return for 2 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5983% → 82%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
16.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
16.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
17.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
17.9%
Noah Ruggles 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:5118% → 19%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
17.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
18.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-2
18.7%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted J.T. Tuimoloau return for 2 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:4682% → 84%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
18.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 18 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
17.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.1%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5216% → 16%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
16.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
16.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
16.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
16.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
16.3%
Barney Amor punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3683% → 82%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
17.0%
C.J. Stroud run for 4 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
17.0%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
17.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+7
17.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 51 yds , Parker Washington returns for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:4217% → 23%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
16.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brenton Strange) to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
16.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
16.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
17.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
17.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+58
23.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 58 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:2178% → 76%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
22.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-3
21.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-2
22.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 7
OWN 29
-5
24.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 12
OWN 24
-3
24.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 52 yds , Parker Washington returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:4524% → 33%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
23.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
23.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 1 yd to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+13
22.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+42
23.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 42 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
33.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 23 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:3070% → 67%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
29.7%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Fleming, Julian, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Porter Jr., Joey) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
50
-5
28.1%
Henderson, TreVeyon rush for 1 yard to the PENNST49, PENALTY OHIOST illegal shift 5 yards to the OHIOST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+23
29.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 23 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
28.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 9 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+9
28.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
29.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
29.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 15
OPP 19
0
32.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Denzel BurkeSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+37
32.8%
Noah Ruggles 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:5633% → 34%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
34.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
35.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
36.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
35.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+8
34.3%
Barney Amor punt for 39 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for 8 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13END OF HALF
10 plays · 56 yds · 1:0066% → 71%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
33.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 23 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
31.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-8
31.3%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+11
33.8%
C.J. Stroud run for 11 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+14
33.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 14 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
29.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 21 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
29.5%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Johnny Dixon for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 13 C.J. Stroud fumbled, forced by Johnny Dixon, recovered by OhSt Luke Wypler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:5636% → 42%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
36.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-1
37.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Sean Clifford for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
36.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+1
36.3%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
38.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
38.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 5 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+8
38.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
41.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 27 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
43.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-2
43.6%
Sean Clifford sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+8
42.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Omari Evans for 8 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
41.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:1360% → 55%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
40.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-2
40.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+11
43.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 11 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
41.2%
C.J. Stroud run for 3 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
41.2%
C.J. Stroud run for no gain to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
43.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
45.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0444% → 44%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
43.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+5
44.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+4
43.5%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
45.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
46.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+3
44.4%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
44.4%
Barney Amor punt for 36 yds, downed at the OhSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5655% → 69%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
44.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 16 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
42.1%
Stroud, C.J. pass complete to Harrison Jr., Marvin for 5 yards to the PENNST46, PENALTY PENNST offside 5 yards to the PENNST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+16
41.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Mitch Rossi for 16 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
40.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
41.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+4
43.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
31.4%
Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:3438% → 71%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
38.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by J.T. Tuimoloau for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
35.8%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Wallace III, Harrison, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Johnson, JK) 15 yards to the PENNST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
39.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+14
42.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
43.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 26 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
45.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
46.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Omari Evans for 6 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
44.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 13
-5
42.0%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Juice Scruggs) to the OhSt 18Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+5
41.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the OhSt 13Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+4
42.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 4 yds to the OhSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
47.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the OhSt 8Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
48.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 7 yds Mitchell Tinsley fumbled, forced by Ronnie Hickman, recovered by PnSt Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.5%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the OhSt 1Similar
Q4 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:2839% → 72%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
61.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 21 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
56.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 13 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
31.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
27.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) on PAT to the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1843% → 46%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
45.9%
Sean Clifford sacked by J.T. Tuimoloau for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by J.T. Tuimoloau, recovered by OhSt J.T. Tuimoloau , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
10.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 24 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:1914% → 27%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
14.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 27 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
17.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
18.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 5 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
18.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
18.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+6
15.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
27.4%
Jake Pinegar 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5183% → 97%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
17.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 16 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
15.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to TreVeyon HendersonSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
15.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+12
15.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
11.8%
Henderson, TreVeyon rush for 2 yards to the PENNST45, PENALTY PENNST offside (Beamon, Hakeem) 5 yards to the PENNST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 5
OPP 42
-2
10.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+42
10.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 42 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
8.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 7Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
2.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Cade Stover) to the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-14
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted for a TD J.T. Tuimoloau return for 14 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:101% → 6%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 4 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+35
0.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 35 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
1.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 15 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
1.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 8 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
5.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0698% → 98%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
2.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+11
2.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 11 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+8
1.9%
Mitch Rossi run for 8 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:17
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 24 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-35.4
TD · Q4 8:51
TreVeyon Henderson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-25.4
TD · Q4 9:26
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+24.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com