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MSU

Michigan State 7 at Michigan 29

MICH
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.4MICH 89.4%Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 16 · Q3 9:15
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Q3 9:15 · Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+22.4Home team on offense+11.3Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:08: Jake Moody 25 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:15: Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:58: Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:45: Jake Moody 54 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:47: Blake Corum run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:02MSU 4th & 24 at MSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:31MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−1.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:23MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:08MICH 4th & 7 at MSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:15MICH 4th & 7 at MSU 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:33MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:58MICH 4th & 7 at MSU 15, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:30MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:45MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 36, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:26MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:09MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 33, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:52MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 46, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:26MSU 4th & 9 at MICH 25, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:23MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:58MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:47MICH Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:527% → 7%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.3%
Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
93.2%
Jayden Reed run for 17 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
93.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MICHIGAN 46 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jarrett Horst) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 20
OWN 39
-5
93.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 25
OWN 34
-4
93.0%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 29
OWN 30
+10
92.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 19
OWN 40
-5
92.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
92.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5393% → 92%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
92.6%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
92.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell, broken up by Charles BrantleySimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
92.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
92.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
92.3%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
92.2%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
92.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds Cornelius Johnson fumbled, forced by Xavier Henderson, recovered by MchSt Dashaun MallorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:578% → 9%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
91.7%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
91.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 6 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
91.1%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
91.1%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:4192% → 90%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
91.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+8
91.3%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
91.3%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
91.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
91.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 28 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
90.8%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 7Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
90.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
90.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 3 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
90.2%
Jake Moody 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5110% → 13%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.1%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.8%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
89.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+29
89.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 29 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
88.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 6 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
87.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1588% → 89%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
87.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 18 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
87.9%
Blake Corum run for 17 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
88.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 13 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
88.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 24 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
87.9%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
87.7%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:2012% → 14%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.4%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
87.8%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel Barker, broken up by DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.9%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+27
88.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 27 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
86.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 22 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
86.1%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
85.7%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
86.0%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-2
86.5%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
17 plays · 86 yds · 6:1487% → 89%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
87.3%
Blake Corum run for 16 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
87.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
87.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
86.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
86.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
87.4%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
87.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel AnthonySimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+16
86.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 16 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
87.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+7
87.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
87.0%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
87.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
88.6%
Jake Moody 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:4312% → 11%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.5%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
88.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
88.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Mike SainristilSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
88.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cornelius Johnson) to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
88.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
88.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-5
88.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Mike Morris and Mazi Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:3188% → 89%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
87.6%
Blake Corum run for 16 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
88.1%
Blake Corum run for 10 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
88.4%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
88.3%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+15
87.5%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie (Williams, Ronald), PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (Harmon, Derrick) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
88.3%
Corum, Blake rush for no gain to the MICHIGANST34, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Zinter, Zak) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+13
87.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 13 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
88.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+4
87.4%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
87.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+3
87.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
89.4%
Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3612% → 11%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.6%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
88.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon Coleman, broken up by Rod MooreSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:3190% → 92%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
89.5%
Blake Corum run for 12 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
90.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 29 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
90.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
90.5%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+1
90.1%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
90.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-3
90.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+4
90.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
92.4%
Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:218% → 8%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.9%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
91.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 34 yds, downed at the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4093% → 96%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
93.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
93.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
93.7%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+12
93.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
93.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 5 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
93.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
93.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+54
95.9%
Jake Moody 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:075% → 5%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
94.5%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jack NickelSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-21
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3197% → 99%
Q4 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
96.6%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.1%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+50
99.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 5:1199% → 100%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.3%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+5
99.3%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
99.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 5 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
99.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
99.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+51
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 51 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.2%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr, broken up by Mike MorrisSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+9
99.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
99.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Maliq Carr) to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-34
99.3%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Rod Moore return for 34 yds to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.7%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
99.8%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Ronnie Bell pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.8%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Johnson, Cornelius, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Williams, Ronald) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
99.8%
C.J. Stokes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
C.J. Stokes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 1:08
Jake Moody 25 yd FG GOOD
+2.8
TD · Q4 12:47
Blake Corum run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
+2.5
FG · Q3 9:15
Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOOD
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com