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MINN

Minnesota 17 at Penn State 45

PSU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:05 · TEAM punt for 28 yds, downed at the PnSt 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense+6.1Score differential+1.5Pregame prior+7.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:05: Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 38 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:01: Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:32: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +9.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 11:59: Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:33: Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:49PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26MINN 4th & 6 at PSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:57MINN 4th & 13 at PSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:55PSU 4th & 3 at MINN 24, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:00MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:06MINN 4th & 18 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:57PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:05MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:06MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41PSU 4th & 3 at MINN 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:11MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:25MINN 4th & 3 at PSU 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:06MINN 4th & 5 at PSU 14, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:04PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:05PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:01PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:32MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:59PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:33PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:27PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:03MINN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:35PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0667% → 67%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
66.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
66.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
66.7%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Malick Meiga) to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
66.6%
Barney Amor punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:1733% → 33%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
66.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Nick Kallerup) to the Minn 18Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+5
66.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
66.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-5
66.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Axel Ruschmeyer) to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+3
66.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 14
OWN 19
-4
66.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 52 yds , Parker Washington returns for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2567% → 66%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
66.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
66.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
65.9%
Barney Amor punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0634% → 35%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
66.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
65.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+12
65.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
65.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
64.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
65.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
65.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2866% → 65%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
65.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-37
65.4%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Justin Walley return for 37 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:2836% → 36%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
63.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 7
OPP 11
-5
64.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Aireontae Ersery) to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 12
OPP 16
-1
63.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+35
63.9%
Matthew Trickett 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:5064% → 66%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+25
62.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 25 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
64.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 18 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
65.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
65.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+2
64.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
65.6%
Jake Pinegar 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4636% → 35%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
63.0%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
64.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Daequan Hardy and Abdul Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
65.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 50 yds , Parker Washington returns for no gain to the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:4565% → 73%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
64.9%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 5
OWN 29
0
65.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
65.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
65.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+22
65.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 22 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
66.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+38
72.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for 38 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:5029% → 27%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
70.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 10 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
70.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
71.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Aireontae Ersery) to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 15
OWN 36
-5
72.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Axel Ruschmeyer) to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+2
72.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
72.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 53 yds, downed at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:5673% → 83%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
72.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+10
72.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
73.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
74.6%
Omari Evans run for 7 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
75.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+30
74.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 30 yds to the PENNST 24 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jalen Logan-Redding) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
75.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
82.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0283% → 83%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
82.7%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+3
82.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+53
82.7%
Barney Amor punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PENNST 20 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Beanie Bishop) to the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 1:2018% → 31%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
81.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
82.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+33
81.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 33 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
80.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 13 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
79.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 11 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
78.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 16 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
77.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+8
78.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:2674% → 75%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
74.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 17 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
76.2%
Clifford, Sean rush for 7 yards to the MINNESOTA45, PENALTY PENNST holding (Scruggs, Juice) 10 yards to the PENNST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-1
74.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5027% → 25%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
73.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+19
73.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 19 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
72.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 32Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
73.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Le'Meke BrockingtonSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+4
74.6%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
74.6%
TEAM punt for 28 yds, downed at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0075% → 86%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
75.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 15 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
76.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 5 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
76.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
86.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4016% → 17%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
84.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Bryce Williams for 19 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
83.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Xavier Copening) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 5
50
+4
82.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+12
82.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 12 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
82.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-35
82.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 35 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2788% → 96%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
87.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
88.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 6 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
88.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 7 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.3%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
89.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+12
89.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Terell Smith) to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:215% → 4%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
95.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
95.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 40 yds, downed at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:2596% → 100%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
95.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+13
95.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
97.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
97.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
97.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
97.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
97.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+9
97.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:570% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+7
99.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Trey Potts run for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+28
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 28 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
99.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 13 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
98.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+9
99.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 9 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+49
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 49 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
99.9%
Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for no gain to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 5
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
99.9%
Tank Smith run for 9 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Tank Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Tank Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
99.9%
Tank Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Barney Amor punt for 40 yds, downed at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:59
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 35 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q2 0:32
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 6:33
Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com