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NU

Northwestern 24 at Maryland 31

MD
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:45 · Colton Spangler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 4Pregame prior+33.7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:50: Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK) — NU win probability +11.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:21: Roman Hemby run for 18 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +11.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:07: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 30 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +14.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:34: Andrew Clair run for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK) — NU win probability +36.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:22: Roman Hemby run for 75 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +48.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:45MD 4th & 6 at MD 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01NU 4th & 12 at MD 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:33MD 4th & 7 at MD 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37NU 4th & 9 at NU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:42MD 4th & 13 at MD 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:25NU 4th & 4 at MD 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:08MD 4th & 2 at NU 2, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:40NU 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:39NU 4th & 4 at MD 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−3.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:39MD 4th & 3 at NU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:24MD 4th & 24 at NU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:00MD 4th & 14 at NU 37, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:54NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:43MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:50NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:21MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:07MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:34NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:22MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1584% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
84.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 3 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
84.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
84.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
83.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4416% → 17%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
83.9%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
83.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
83.9%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
83.9%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
83.9%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-7
83.9%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Durell Nchami for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
83.2%
Luke Akers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:2883% → 82%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
83.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 4 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-2
83.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+8
83.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 8 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
83.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Spencer Anderson) to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+2
83.2%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+3
83.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+3
83.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
81.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5618% → 19%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
81.8%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
81.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
81.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 8 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
81.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 18
OWN 37
+2
81.9%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
81.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+7
82.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
81.2%
Luke Akers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5581% → 80%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
81.0%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
81.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
80.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 13
OWN 10
0
80.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4820% → 24%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
50
+46
79.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 46 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
79.6%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 4:0677% → 81%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
77.3%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
77.3%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
77.2%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
77.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Corey Dyches for 28 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
78.4%
Colby McDonald run for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+4
78.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
78.3%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
76.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
76.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+16
75.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 16 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
76.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 9 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+14
80.6%
Roman Hemby run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:1822% → 25%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
78.4%
Evan Hull run for 17 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
77.6%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
77.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
77.4%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
77.2%
SULLIVAN, Brendan pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Malik thrown to the UMD6. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the UMD28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.8%
SULLIVAN, Brendan pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Malik thrown to the UMD2. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on BANKS, Deonte enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UMD13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
76.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for no gain to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
76.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+6
77.4%
Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
75.0%
Adam Stage 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9Uncategorized
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2376% → 74%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.6%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
75.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Bryce Gallagher and Rod Heard II for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+15
73.5%
SPANGLER, Colton punt 55 yards to the NOR26, NAVARRO, Donny return of 8 yards to the NOR34 nullified (MOSLEY, Shane), clock 09:02. PENALTY NOR Unnecessary Roughness on OLGES, Duke enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the NOR32 to the NOR17, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:1226% → 39%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
74.3%
Evan Hull run for 8 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+9
73.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
73.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 5 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
73.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offsides (Greg China-Rose) to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
73.2%
Evan Hull run for 17 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
72.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
72.9%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+9
73.2%
Brendan Sullivan run for 9 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.3%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
72.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 11 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
72.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
72.3%
run for 3 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
60.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
22 plays · 86 yds · 4:4062% → 62%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
61.7%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+3
61.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+11
60.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 11 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
61.9%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+15
62.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 15 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
63.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
63.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 10 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
64.1%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+12
64.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 12 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
60.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
60.1%
EDWARDS JR., Billy pass to the left incomplete intended for JARRETT, Rakim thrown to the NOR0. PENALTY NOR Holding on MUELLER, Xander enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the NOR16 to the NOR8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
60.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Bryce Gallagher for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
58.6%
EDWARDS JR., Billy pass to the left incomplete intended for JARRETT, Rakim thrown to the NOR0. PENALTY NOR Pass Interference on LEWIS, Jeremiah enforced 7 yards to the NOR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
60.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Jaelyn Duncan) to the Nwest 7Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
60.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
58.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 5 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
62.3%
Chad Ryland 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SULLIVAN, Brendan at NOR23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:4542% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
56.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 9 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
55.9%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+16
55.7%
Evan Hull run for 16 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:5461% → 75%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
60.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
61.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 11 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
62.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to CJ Dippre for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
63.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
61.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
63.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 6 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+6
63.3%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
75.1%
Roman Hemby run for 18 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:4131% → 33%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.6%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
67.8%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
68.5%
Evan Hull run for 7 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
66.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
65.9%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
66.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
50
+5
65.3%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 5 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-10
65.3%
CLAIR, Andrew rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the UMD38 (MCCULLOUGH, Ahmad). PENALTY NOR Holding on LANG, Marshall enforced 10 yards from the UMD45 to the NOR45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-5
67.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+10
68.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 10
50
0
66.8%
Luke Akers punt for 15 yds, downed at the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3370% → 88%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
69.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
72.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
72.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
69.9%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+7
69.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to CJ Dippre for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
70.5%
EDWARDS JR., Billy sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the UMD43 (HUBBARD, Aidan). PENALTY NOR Holding on HEARD II, Rod enforced 10 yards from the UMD49 to the NOR41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
72.8%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
72.9%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
72.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.7%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
88.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 30 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2818% → 17%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Marshall Lang for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
80.0%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
80.6%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
79.6%
Malik Washington run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
79.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
78.8%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
78.9%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+4
80.3%
Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-2
82.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Donny Navarro III for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 26 yds · 6:1589% → 86%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
89.1%
Ramon Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
88.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Ramon Brown for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
88.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+5
87.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
89.3%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
89.3%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
89.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+8
89.5%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
89.5%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-8
89.5%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-15
88.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Adetomiwa Adebawore for a loss of 15 yards to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 24
OPP 28
+46
89.2%
Chad Ryland 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
86.1%
SULLIVAN, Brendan pass to the left incomplete intended for NAVARRO, Donny thrown to the UMD45. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on BENNETT, Jakorian enforced 15 yards to the NOR43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5015% → 55%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
84.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Marshall Lang for 9 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+4
82.5%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
83.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
81.5%
Bryce Kirtz run for 3 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
81.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+4
82.9%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
81.0%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+5
81.0%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
44.7%
Andrew Clair run for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
92.9%
Roman Hemby run for 75 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1413% → 6%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
87.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.7%
HEMBY, Roman rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the UMD27 (MUELLER, Xander). PENALTY Before the snap, NOR Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UMD26 to the UMD31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:2695% → 96%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+2
95.1%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
95.1%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+32
95.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 32 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
96.5%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
96.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by EDWARDS JR., Billy at NOR34 (team loss of 4).Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
96.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by EDWARDS JR., Billy at NOR37 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
96.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:22
Roman Hemby run for 75 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+48.2
TD · Q4 3:34
Andrew Clair run for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)
-36.3
TD · Q3 1:07
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 30 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com