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WIS

Wisconsin 28 at Michigan State 34

MSU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT2 0:00 · Jayden Reed 27 Yd pass from Payton Thorne
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorDefense timeoutsTime remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:54: Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +25.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:23: Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 27 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +33.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:04: Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK) — WIS win probability +38.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Jayden Reed pass complete to Keon Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — MSU win probability +30.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Chimere Dike 25 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Jack Van Dyke Kick) — WIS win probability +37.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:28MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01WIS 4th & 1 at MSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:18MSU 4th & 1 at WIS 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:57MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:05WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:33WIS 4th & 12 at WIS 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:48MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:54WIS 4th & 10 at MSU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:30WIS 4th & 15 at WIS 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−7.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:19MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−6.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:54WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:04WIS 4th & 3 at MSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−10.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−17.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00MSU 4th & 3 at WIS 29, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 11.9 ptsWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%−11.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−24.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:01WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:20MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:21WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:54MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:23MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−1.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:04WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3232% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.5%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
31.5%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
31.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
32.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
32.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:2768% → 68%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+20
32.2%
Braelon Allen run for 20 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
32.0%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+11
32.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
32.0%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness ( Yards) to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
32.0%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-7
32.0%
Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+18
32.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
32.0%
run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.0%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.8%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
17 plays · 73 yds · 6:4332% → 33%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
31.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
32.3%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-15
32.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
32.1%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
32.5%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+28
32.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
32.9%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
32.9%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
32.6%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
32.9%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
32.9%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.4%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
32.8%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4668% → 68%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
31.8%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 2Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
31.9%
Graham Mertz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1233% → 40%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
32.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
40.2%
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3963% → 71%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
36.9%
Braelon Allen run for 34 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
35.3%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
35.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
34.8%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+6
34.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+11
35.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 11 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
34.6%
Graham Mertz run for 14 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.5%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.2%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1532% → 31%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
32.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+1
32.5%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+3
32.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+26
31.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 26 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
32.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
33.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
33.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 3 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
32.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+1
30.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds , Dean Engram returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:5266% → 65%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
34.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Targeting on FLETCHER, Michael enforced (15 Yards) to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
33.9%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
33.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-3
33.9%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
35.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 37 yds, downed at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1937% → 37%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
37.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
38.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
38.5%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-1
37.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
36.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
36.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:2663% → 60%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
37.2%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
37.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 5 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-5
36.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-15
37.8%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the right complete for 14 yards to DIKE, Chimere caught at the WIS43 and advanced to the WIS47 (HALADAY, Cal;BRANTLEY, Charles). PENALTY WIS Block below the waist on ALLEN, Braelon enforced 15 yards from the WIS33 to the WIS18 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+8
39.6%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
40.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
37.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:2271% → 69%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
29.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Charles Brantley for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 18
OWN 11
0
29.5%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+6
30.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 6 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
30.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 64 yds , Jayden Reed returns for no gain MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Block below the waist on BERNARD, Germie enforced (Germie Bernard) to the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:4529% → 28%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
28.9%
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
29.4%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
28.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+4
27.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 54 yds , Dean Engram returns for 4 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
28.1%
ALLEN, Braelon rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the WIS19 (WINDMON, Jacoby). PENALTY WIS Holding on BORTOLINI, Tanor enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the WIS15 to the WIS8. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:5472% → 76%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 17
OWN 8
-3
28.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 5Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 20
OWN 5
+6
28.7%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+15
29.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Charles Brantley) to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
27.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 14 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
25.4%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
25.5%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
24.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
25.1%
run for 9 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
24.7%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
24.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
24.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
25.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
24.4%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 34 yds, downed at the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 4:0024% → 54%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
23.9%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+6
23.7%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+8
23.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 8 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+72
24.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 72 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
29.7%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
29.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+6
28.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.1%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2154% → 51%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
46.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 14 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
43.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-8
43.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+1
48.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+4
49.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:1148% → 45%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
47.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
47.2%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-7
45.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 16
OWN 20
+12
44.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 68 yds , Dean Engram returns for 12 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2549% → 46%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
51.0%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
50.8%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
53.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3153% → 93%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
53.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
50
0
58.4%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
50
+9
57.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 9 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-3
56.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+15
53.3%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for REED, Jayden thrown to the WIS20, clock 07:46. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on HALLMAN, Ricardo enforced 15 yards to the WIS29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
59.3%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
92.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 27 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:1119% → 52%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
80.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
79.5%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+7
77.3%
Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
76.9%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-5
77.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Trey Wedig) to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-5
79.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Tanor Bortolini) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 19
OPP 35
+27
80.0%
Skyler Bell run for 27 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.9%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
85.8%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:5554% → 56%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
54.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
53.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+25
52.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 25 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
61.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
59.9%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+8
59.1%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
62.1%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
65.0%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-1
60.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
56.3%
Bryce Baringer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.6%
Jayden Reed pass complete to Keon Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 56%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
82.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
44.3%
Chimere Dike 25 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Jack Van Dyke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
41.1%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 26 Braelon Allen fumbled, recovered by MchSt Dashaun MallorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 15:0066% → 84%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
65.6%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-5
65.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (J.D. Duplain) to the Wisc 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
65.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+27
84.3%
Jayden Reed 27 Yd pass from Payton Thorne Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:04
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)
-38.1
TD · OT 0:00
Chimere Dike 25 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Jack Van Dyke Kick)
-37.8
TD · Q4 7:23
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 27 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
+33.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com