2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scorePSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:11 · Kaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:29: Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +7.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:11: Kaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:27: Curtis Jacobs 47 Yd Interception Return (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:12: Donovan Edwards 67 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +17.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:20: Blake Corum 61 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +14.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 9:43MICH 4th & 4 at PSU 11, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snapGo for it68.8%45% to convertField goalTheir call68.8%−<0.187% to makePunt68.1%−0.8average punt
- Q1 7:36PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it30.9%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%average punt
- Q1 1:25MICH 4th & 6 at PSU 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snapGo for it68.1%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call68.2%91% to makePunt65.8%−2.4average punt
- Q2 14:49PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 34, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q2 6:11PSU 4th & 1 at MICH 1, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.7%59% to convertField goal19.0%−1.794% to makePunt14.6%−6.1average punt
- Q2 0:02MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 5, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snapGo for it63.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call61.8%−1.692% to makePunt54.0%−9.4average punt
- Q3 13:15PSU 4th & 4 at MICH 10, down 2Close callKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snapGo for it34.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call34.1%−0.488% to makePunt26.0%−8.5average punt
- Q3 7:33PSU 4th & 6 at MICH 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.7%40% to convertField goal25.4%−1.436% to makePunt25.6%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:28PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it11.4%−1.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q3 1:41MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.7%70% to convertField goal89.4%−3.423% to makePunt90.6%−2.1average punt
- Q4 11:00MICH 4th & 15 at PSU 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it92.5%−1.715% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%77% to makePunt89.1%−5.2average punt
- Q4 9:06PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 47, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.6%average punt
- Q4 2:17PSU 4th & 11 at MICH 43, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.5%−<0.128% to makePunt0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 8:29MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:11PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.9%97% to makeGo for two26.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:27PSU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.9%97% to makeGo for two35.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:12MICH Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick71.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call71.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:20MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:03MICH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMICHDrive 1FG12 plays · 64 yds · 5:1769% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
69.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 4
50
+9
69.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
69.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 4 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1031% → 31%
MICHDrive 3FG13 plays · 77 yds · 6:1169% → 71%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+35
68.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 35 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
69.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+9
69.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 9 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+7
69.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 7 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
69.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3130% → 30%
Q1 0:01
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+5
70.4%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre for 2 yards to the PENNST31, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 5 yards to the PENNST34, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD14 plays · 70 yds · 6:2071% → 83%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
70.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 5 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+15
71.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
72.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 7 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
72.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1820% → 28%
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7INT TD6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3774% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG15 plays · 60 yds · 4:2063% → 68%
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
63.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+15
64.7%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Dixon, Johnny) 15 yards to the PENNST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG10 plays · 70 yds · 1:3833% → 43%
MICHDrive 11TD5 plays · 81 yds · 2:0060% → 76%
PSUDrive 12DOWNS13 plays · 36 yds · 3:3625% → 25%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+16
74.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 16 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
72.0%
Singleton, Nicholas rush for 3 yards to the MICHIGAN40, PENALTY MICHIGAN substitution infraction 5 yards to the MICHIGAN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-15
72.2%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Singleton, Nicholas for 10 yards to the MICHIGAN27, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Warren, Tyler) 15 yards to the PENNST48, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5012% → 11%
Q3 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
88.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 15 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-2
88.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by R.J. Moten for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+5
88.7%
Barney Amor punt for 43 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FG20 plays · 48 yds · 9:2890% → 97%
Q3 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-10
90.9%
Edwards, Donovan rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGAN38, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Keegan, Trevor) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+5
90.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Mich 31 Donovan Edwards fumbled, forced by Chris Stoll, recovered by Mich Trevor KeeganSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+14
91.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 14 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-2
93.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+7
93.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the PnSt 46 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, forced by Daequan Hardy, recovered by MichSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
94.6%
McCarthy, J.J. pass complete to Loveland, Colston for 19 yards to the PENNST14, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+5
94.6%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Loveland, Colston, PENALTY PENNST offside 5 yards to the PENNST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+21
94.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 21 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 14
OPP 18
-5
95.1%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Coziah Izzard for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 22 yds · 1:544% → 4%
Q4 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
96.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
96.0%
Allar, Drew pass incomplete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Green, Gemon) 11 yards to the PENNST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD7 plays · 47 yds · 4:0397% → 100%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
97.7%
Corum, Blake rush for 16 yards to the PENNST11, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Schoonmaker, Luke) 10 yards to the PENNST37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 42 yds · 2:461% → 1%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+9
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 1 yd to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-7
99.4%
Drew Allar sacked by Michael Barrett and Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 16
OPP 48
+5
99.5%
Allar, Drew pass sacked for loss of 0 yards to the MICHIGAN48 (Upshaw, Taylor), PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 5 yards to the MICHIGAN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 11
OPP 43
+10
99.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Parker Washington for 10 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19END OF GAME4 plays · 22 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:12
Donovan Edwards 67 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion)
+17.3
TD · Q3 7:20
Blake Corum 61 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+14.6
TD · Q2 4:27
Curtis Jacobs 47 Yd Interception Return (Jake Pinegar Kick)
-9.8