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OSU

Ohio State 49 at Michigan State 20

MSU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TC Caffey run for 2 yds to the OhSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:29: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 51 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:43: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone PAT MISSED) — MSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:05: TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:20: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:46: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:02MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:13MSU 4th & 13 at OSU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:56MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:42MSU 4th & 25 at MSU 10, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:04OSU 4th & 2 at MSU 2, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:25MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 31, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:04OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 26, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:14MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 34, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:50OSU 4th & 1 at MSU 48, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:17OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 28, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:05MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 29, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:50OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:32MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:11OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:29OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:43MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:05OSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:20OSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:46OSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:04OSU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:40MSU Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:404% → 4%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
3.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+20
4.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 20 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
4.1%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
4.3%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal touching (Reed, Jayden) 0 yards to the OHIOST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
4.3%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted, touchback. Lathan Ransom return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0096% → 96%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
4.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+16
4.5%
Emeka Egbuka run for 16 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
4.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+26
4.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 26 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
4.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 24 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
4.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+19
4.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:315% → 5%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.7%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
4.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
4.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
4.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4INT TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1895% → 94%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
4.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+4
4.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 4 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
5.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-32
5.6%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted for a TD Charles Brantley return for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0494% → 95%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 24Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
5.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
5.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 69 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:465% → 6%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
5.4%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
5.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.6%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Coleman, Keon, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGANST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
5.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 14 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
6.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
6.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
6.2%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
6.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
6.6%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-7
6.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Michael Hall Jr. and Tommy Eichenberg for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
6.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 36 yds, downed at the OhSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 2:3093% → 95%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
6.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OhSt 8Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+13
6.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 13 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
6.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 12 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
6.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 6 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
6.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
6.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+7
6.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
5.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 51 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:276% → 9%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
5.8%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
5.8%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+24
5.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 24 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
6.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-10
6.2%
Broussard, Jarek rush for 6 yards to the OHIOST35, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+15
6.0%
Thorne, Payton pass complete to Bernard, Germie for loss of 1 yard to the MICHIGANST48, PENALTY OHIOST personal foul 15 yards to the OHIOST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
6.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
6.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+15
6.2%
Thorne, Payton pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the OHIOST41 (Hall Jr., Michael), PENALTY OHIOST personal foul 15 yards to the OHIOST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
8.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2592% → 94%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
7.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+32
7.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 32 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
7.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 13 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
7.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
7.2%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Egbuka, Emeka, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul 5 yards to the MICHIGANST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
7.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 5 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:596% → 6%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
6.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
6.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+1
6.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 59 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for 1 yd to the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:2094% → 98%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
6.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
6.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+12
6.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
5.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+10
5.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 10 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
5.7%
Emeka Egbuka run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+16
5.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 16 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
5.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
2.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:515% → 4%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
4.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Michael Hall Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 17
OWN 29
-5
4.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+8
4.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 96 yds · 4:4897% → 99%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
3.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 5Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+6
3.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 6 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+20
3.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 20 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
3.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
2.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 6 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
2.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
2.6%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Derrick Harmon for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+14
2.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 14 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
2.5%
Hayden, Dallan rush for no gain to the MICHIGANST34, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul 15 yards to the MICHIGANST19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
1.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.2%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
1.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jerron Cage for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-10
1.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Michael Hall Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:3199% → 100%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
0.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
0.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
0.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+9
0.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 9 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
1.0%
Dallan Hayden run for 12 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
0.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 6 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.5%
Mitch Rossi run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
0.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds, downed at the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
0.4%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
0.4%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+4
0.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 4 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+8
0.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 53 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Reis Stocksdale at the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:15100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
0.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+11
0.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 11 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
0.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
0.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Reis Stocksdale for 12 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
0.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
0.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
0.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
0.1%
Collins, Elijah rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGANST22, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+4
0.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+23
0.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster for 5 yds Montorie Foster fumbled, forced by Jyaire Brown, recovered by MchSt Montorie FosterSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
0.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
0.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
0.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+24
0.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster for 24 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster for 25 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
TC Caffey run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
0.1%
Kyle McCord run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Kyle McCord run for no gain to the OhSt 28 Kyle McCord fumbled, recovered by OhSt Kyle McCordSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
0.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 55 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Harold Joiner run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Germie Bernard for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Reis Stocksdale at the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.1%
TC Caffey run for 4 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
0.1%
TC Caffey run for 1 yd to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+2
0.1%
TC Caffey run for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-2.6
TD · Q2 10:43
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone PAT MISSED)
+2.4
TD · Q3 9:46
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com