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MICH

Michigan 31 at Indiana 10

IU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:16 · James Evans punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mich 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−30.2Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:54: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Josh Henderson for 11 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +1.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43: Connor Bazelak pass incomplete — IU win probability +5.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:39: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +9.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:43: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:54: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:37IU 4th & 18 at IU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:02MICH 4th & 8 at IU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:47MICH 4th & 2 at IU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:16IU 4th & 12 at MICH 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:32IU 4th & 3 at IU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:51IU 4th & 14 at IU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:24MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 31, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:45IU 4th & 19 at IU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:40IU 4th & 21 at IU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:42IU 4th & 7 at IU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:32MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:54IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:39MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:43MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:54MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:1995% → 94%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
5.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for 16 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
5.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
5.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
6.0%
Blake Corum run for 50 yds to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.9%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:436% → 6%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
6.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Shaun Shivers for no gain to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
6.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
6.3%
Shaun Shivers run for no gain to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-8
6.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Michael Barrett for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+4
6.4%
James Evans punt for 46 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 4 yds to the Mich 32 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5194% → 93%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
6.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 8 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
6.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 4 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
6.6%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
6.6%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+6
6.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 6 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
7.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:257% → 10%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
7.2%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+7
7.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 7 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+1
7.3%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
7.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Josh Henderson for 9 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
7.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+15
7.7%
Bazelak, Connor pass incomplete to Simmons, Emery, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGAN42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
7.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Aaron SteinfeldtSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-2
7.8%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+33
7.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 33 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
8.2%
Donaven McCulley run for no gain to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
9.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Josh Henderson for 11 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:2191% → 90%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
9.2%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
9.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+26
9.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 26 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
9.4%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
9.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
10.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
10.1%
Jake Moody 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 3:4010% → 14%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
10.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 16 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
10.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 2 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
10.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 13 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
11.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 9 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
11.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 6 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
12.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Shift (5 Yards) to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+15
12.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Andison Coby for 15 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
12.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
12.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Andison Coby INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 0
OPP 25
0
12.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Andison CobySimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 0
OPP 25
0
12.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 0
OPP 25
+2
12.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+41
13.5%
Charles Campbell 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1787% → 86%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
12.9%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
12.9%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
13.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to A.J. HenningSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
14.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3314% → 15%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
14.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Andison CobySimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
14.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 13 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
14.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Cam CamperSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
15.0%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the Ind 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:0087% → 85%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
12.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
13.0%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 22Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+12
13.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
13.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
13.4%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 8Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
14.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to A.J. HenningSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 0
OPP 8
+26
14.9%
Jake Moody 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by James Head Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:2818% → 22%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
17.5%
Jaylin Lucas run for 39 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
19.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 6 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
20.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 7 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
20.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 2 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
21.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Cam Camper for 6 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
21.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 5 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
22.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Josh Henderson for 10 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
22.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
22.4%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 6Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
22.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 0
OPP 6
+24
21.5%
Charles Campbell 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mike MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:2882% → 82%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
18.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
18.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 6 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
18.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 10 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
18.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 15 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
16.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
17.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
17.1%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Ind 39Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-2
18.5%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3924% → 23%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
23.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
23.5%
Josh Henderson run for 11 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
25.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Mike Morris for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 16
OWN 46
0
23.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 16
OWN 46
-1
22.7%
Josh Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:3523% → 24%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 15 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
24.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
25.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 4 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
24.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 6 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
26.7%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Junior Colson for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+2
25.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 17
OWN 46
0
24.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 17
OWN 46
+5
23.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
23.8%
James Evans punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 4:3777% → 87%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
23.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Blake Corum) to the Mich 1Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+3
23.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
23.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+14
24.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 14 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
23.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 4 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+17
24.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 17 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
23.1%
Blake Corum run for 18 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
22.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
22.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
23.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
22.4%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
12.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4817% → 16%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Josh Henderson for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
16.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
16.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Andison Coby for 3 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+35
16.4%
James Evans punt for 51 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 35 yds to the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1486% → 87%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
13.7%
INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
13.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
13.5%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
13.8%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
13.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
13.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted, touchback. Devon Matthews return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:3818% → 18%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
18.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
18.8%
Jaylin Lucas run for 2 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
19.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Emery Simmons for 10 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
21.1%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Parker Hanna) to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+1
19.4%
Jaylin Lucas run for 1 yd to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
19.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Malachi Holt-BennettSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
18.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
17.6%
James Evans punt for 52 yds, downed at the Mich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:2583% → 84%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
16.8%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+15
17.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 15 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
16.8%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-5
17.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 17
OWN 15
-5
17.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+11
17.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+10
16.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 10 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+8
16.0%
Brad Robbins punt for 58 yds , Connor Delp returns for 8 yds to the Ind 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3219% → 16%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
18.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
18.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-9
16.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Eyabi Okie for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 19
OWN 10
0
15.9%
James Evans punt for 46 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5387% → 96%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
13.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 15 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
12.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 6 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
12.4%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
12.6%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+9
12.4%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Ind 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
11.5%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
4.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:556% → 5%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
6.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-11
5.3%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 11 yards to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 21
OWN 10
-3
4.8%
James Evans punt for 47 yds , A.J. Henning returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 40 A.J. Henning fumbled, recovered by Mich A.J. HenningSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:2396% → 100%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
4.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 21 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
4.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
3.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
3.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
2.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 5 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
2.7%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
2.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
2.1%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the Ind 8Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
2.0%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
0.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.6%
Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
0.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-8
0.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:39
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q4 9:43
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-7.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com