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WIS

Wisconsin 42 at Northwestern 7

NU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−31.9Score differential−22.2Pregame prior−14.3Garbage-time factor−9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. MISSED FG · Q1 9:52: Nate Van Zelst 35 yd FG MISSED — NU win probability +2.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:25: Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 15 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK) — WIS win probability +2.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:50: Chimere Dike 52 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick) — WIS win probability +4.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:58: Chimere Dike 21 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick) — WIS win probability +7.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:11: Chez Mellusi 23 Yd pass from Braelon Allen (Nate Van Zelst Kick) — WIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:52WIS 4th & 9 at NU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:25NU 4th & 9 at WIS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:30NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:03WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43NU 4th & 3 at NU 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:22NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22NU 4th & 1 at WIS 4, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 3 at WIS 13, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:14WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 34, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:16WIS 4th & 6 at NU 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:44NU 4th & 4 at NU 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:08NU 4th & 1 at WIS 1, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:25WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:50WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:58WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:11WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:08NU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:28WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:0476% → 74%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
24.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 11 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
24.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 9 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
24.0%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
24.0%
Braelon Allen run for 33 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
24.0%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
24.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
24.0%
Vinny Anthony run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
24.0%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
24.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
24.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Keontez LewisSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
26.4%
Nate Van Zelst 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2727% → 28%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.6%
Ryan Hilinski run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+16
26.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 16 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
26.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
26.7%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
26.9%
PENALTY WIS Offside (Johnson,Rodas) 5 yards from NU 45 to NU 50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+1
27.1%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
27.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Raymond Niro IIISimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
26.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
27.6%
Luke Akers punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 5:0072% → 75%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
27.7%
Braelon Allen run for 14 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
27.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 6 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+11
27.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 11 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
27.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin O'Rourke) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
26.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 21 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
26.7%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
26.7%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
26.9%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
24.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 15 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5426% → 27%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.1%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
26.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Thomas GordonSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
25.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 11 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
26.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
27.0%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
26.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:4175% → 79%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
25.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Dean EngramSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
25.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 5 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+52
21.2%
Chimere Dike 52 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2022% → 22%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.4%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
22.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
22.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
21.8%
Luke Akers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2779% → 80%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
21.1%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
20.8%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
20.6%
Chez Mellusi run for 8 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
20.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
20.8%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
20.4%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2021% → 21%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
21.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
21.0%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
21.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+13
20.5%
Luke Akers punt for 52 yds , Dean Engram returns for 13 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:4580% → 89%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
19.8%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
19.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack EschenbachSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+43
20.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 43 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.1%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
19.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
11.5%
Chimere Dike 21 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3614% → 13%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.8%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
13.7%
PENALTY NU False Start (Wiederkehr,Ethan) 5 yards from NU 24 to NU 19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
13.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
13.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
13.0%
Luke Akers punt for 44 yds , Dean Engram returns for 7 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1189% → 94%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
10.7%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
10.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 10 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
10.6%
Skyler Bell run for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+5
10.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
10.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
10.4%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
5.6%
Chez Mellusi 23 Yd pass from Braelon Allen (Nate Van Zelst Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 2:116% → 3%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
5.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
5.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+45
5.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 45 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
6.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
6.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 9 yds to the Wisc 4Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
6.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Preston BaconSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
5.2%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Wisc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Marshall LangSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
3.4%
Jack Olsen 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:154% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.6%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
3.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
3.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
4.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 25 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
4.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
4.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
3.8%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 13
0
3.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+15
3.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3197% → 97%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
3.1%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
2.9%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
2.9%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
3.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 6 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
3.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Markus AllenSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-5
3.0%
PENALTY WIS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WIS39 to WIS34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
3.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack EschenbachSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
2.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:562% → 3%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
2.4%
Brendan Sullivan run for 15 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
2.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
2.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
50
+5
2.7%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
2.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 6 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
2.7%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 45 Brendan Sullivan fumbled, recovered by Wisc James Thompson Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0298% → 98%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
2.0%
Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
2.0%
Skyler Bell run for 6 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
2.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
2.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
2.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:322% → 1%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
1.9%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-5
1.8%
PENALTY WIS Offside (Paez,Gio) 5 yards from NU 08 to NU 13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+7
1.9%
Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
2.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Marshall Lang for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
2.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
1.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+2
1.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
1.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Jacob GillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
1.5%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
1.5%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+25
0.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 25 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.6%
Chimere Dike 6 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:430% → 1%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
0.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 10 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Anthony Tyus IIISimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+21
0.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 21 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
0.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 41 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
0.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the Wisc 2Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the Wisc 1Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 8:37100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
0.5%
Vinny Anthony run for 7 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+7
0.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
0.5%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+6
0.4%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
0.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 5 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+9
0.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 9 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Dean EngramSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
0.4%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+14
0.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 14 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
0.4%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
0.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
0.4%
Shotgun Guerendo,Isaac rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU 08 (Johnson,Theran) PENALTY WIS Holding (Nelson,Jack) 10 yards from NU 13 to NU 23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+4
0.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 4 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+19
0.1%
Markus Allen 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
0.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
0.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 8 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
0.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Carl Richardson pass incomplete to Preston BaconSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+2
0.1%
Carl Richardson pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:58
Chimere Dike 21 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)
-7.7
TD · Q2 14:50
Chimere Dike 52 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)
-4.2
TD · Q2 2:11
Chez Mellusi 23 Yd pass from Braelon Allen (Nate Van Zelst Kick)
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com