Try the model
NU

Northwestern 7 at Penn State 17

PSU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Beaver Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:43 · Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+10.9Home team on offense+17.6Garbage-time factor+3.8Score differential+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Time remaining+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:02: Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:28: Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 30 — NU win probability +1.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:10: Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 47 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK) — NU win probability +8.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:59: Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 — PSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:08: Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:21NU 4th & 5 at NU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09NU 4th & 6 at NU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:40NU 4th & 5 at NU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47NU 4th & 10 at NU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59PSU 4th & 14 at NU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:50PSU 4th & 1 at NU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06NU 4th & 8 at PSU 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:26PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:23PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:44NU 4th & 1 at NU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:29PSU 4th & 14 at NU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:47NU 4th & 1 at PSU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:02PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:43NU 4th & 5 at NU 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:42PSU 4th & 11 at NU 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:24NU 4th & 19 at NU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:30NU 4th & 2 at PSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−1.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:31PSU 4th & 1 at NU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:15PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:02PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:10NU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:275% → 5%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.2%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
95.1%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
95.0%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+59
94.9%
Hunter Renner punt for 49 yds, downed at the PENNST 21 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:1095% → 94%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
94.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+3
94.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+9
94.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
94.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
94.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
94.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
93.9%
Barney Amor punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:256% → 7%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
93.8%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
93.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-4
93.5%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
93.5%
Hunter Renner punt for 42 yds, downed at the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:0794% → 93%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
93.4%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
93.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the Nwest 40 Nicholas Singleton fumbled, forced by Garnett Hollis Jr., recovered by Nwest Xander MuellerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:547% → 7%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.8%
Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
92.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Luke Akers punt for 38 yds, downed at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4593% → 92%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
92.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+8
92.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.4%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Bryce Gallagher return for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:038% → 9%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
91.8%
Malik Washington run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
91.5%
Evan Hull run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-44
91.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 34 yds to the PnSt 9 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:2992% → 94%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
92.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
92.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
92.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
92.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
93.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:177% → 7%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
93.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Raymond Niro IIISimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
93.2%
Hunter Renner punt for 36 yds, downed at the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4193% → 92%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
93.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
93.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 8 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
93.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
93.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-5
92.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Olumuyiwa Fashanu) to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
92.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
92.3%
Barney Amor punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FUMBLE
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:438% → 9%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
92.5%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
92.5%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+22
92.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 22 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
92.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
91.9%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
91.6%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
91.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
50
-5
91.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Nick TarburtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2593% → 95%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
92.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
92.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+7
92.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
92.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+11
92.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 11 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
92.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 11 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:516% → 6%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
93.9%
Evan Hull run for 29 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.4%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
93.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
93.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
93.8%
Luke Akers punt for 36 yds, downed at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:1294% → 95%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
94.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+19
94.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 19 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
94.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 28 Nicholas Singleton fumbled, forced by Rod Heard II, recovered by Nwest Cameron MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15DOWNS
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:117% → 7%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
92.7%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-5
93.1%
Ryan Hilinski sacked by Nick Tarburton for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 35 Ryan Hilinski fumbled, forced by Nick Tarburton, recovered by PnSt Curtis Jacobs , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2495% → 95%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
94.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
94.6%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FUMBLE
14 plays · 42 yds · 6:1394% → 95%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
94.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
94.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
94.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
94.3%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
94.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
94.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
94.5%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Sal Wormley) to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
94.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
94.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
94.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
94.8%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Nwest 33 Keyvone Lee fumbled, forced by Garnett Hollis Jr., recovered by Nwest Greyson MetzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:337% → 7%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-5
93.1%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+10
93.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 10 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-5
93.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
93.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds , Parker Washington returns for 12 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1295% → 94%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
94.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
95.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
94.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Barney Amor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:596% → 16%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
93.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 9 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
93.2%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
93.5%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+2
94.0%
Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
93.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 6 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
93.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+18
93.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 18 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
84.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 47 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3089% → 91%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+43
88.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 43 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
91.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
91.4%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-2
91.8%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
91.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
91.4%
Jake Pinegar 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:208% → 9%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
92.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 15 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
90.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
90.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
89.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+24
90.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 24 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
90.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.6%
Ryan Hilinski run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2692% → 91%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
91.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 7 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+10
91.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
91.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
91.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
91.1%
Barney Amor punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:148% → 7%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
92.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
93.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5293% → 93%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
93.1%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
93.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
93.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
92.5%
Barney Amor punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:066% → 6%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
93.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 20 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-9
93.2%
Ryan Hilinski run for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 19 Ryan Hilinski fumbled, recovered by Nwest Ryan HilinskiSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 19
OWN 19
0
94.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
94.2%
Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3694% → 94%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
94.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
94.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Kaytron Allen fumbled, forced by Bryce Gallagher, recovered by Nwest Jeremiah Lewis , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:417% → 7%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
50
+8
92.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
92.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
92.7%
Ryan Hilinski run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
93.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Marshall LangSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:3695% → 97%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
94.7%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+8
94.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
94.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
95.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+3
95.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
96.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 15
OPP 34
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:10
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 47 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)
-8.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:59
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com