2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:05: Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:51: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 36 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:48: Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:12: Jude McAtamney 35 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:01: Miyan Williams run for 70 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:33RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, tiedClose callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:34RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 11:00RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 7:17OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q2 5:36RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 0:48OSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 1, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%59% to convertField goal96.2%−0.494% to makePunt95.2%−1.5average punt
- Q3 10:12RUTG 4th & 10 at OSU 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call1.4%80% to makePunt0.4%−0.9average punt
- Q3 5:26RUTG 4th & 2 at OSU 46, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%57% to convertField goal0.5%−0.323% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:39RUTG 4th & 9 at OSU 31, down 39Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.1%54% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:59OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 39, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:53OSU 4th & 8 at RUTG 37, up 39Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%35% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.140% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:36RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 15, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:15OSU 4th & 6 at RUTG 41, up 39Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%−<0.140% to convertField goal100.0%32% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:00RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:21OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:05OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:51OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:48OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:01OSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:22OSU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:50OSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q1 12:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
98.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 18 Emeka Egbuka fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Max MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD3 plays · 18 yds · 0:591% → 2%
OSUDrive 3TD6 plays · 48 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+12
98.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 12 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q1 7:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD11 plays · 74 yds · 3:1498% → 98%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
98.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+3
98.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+27
98.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 27 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
98.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 8 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+20
98.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 20 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
98.0%
Marvin Harrison Jr. run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6FUMBLE7 plays · 26 yds · 3:222% → 2%
OSUDrive 7TD4 plays · 51 yds · 0:3098% → 98%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
97.9%
Miyan Williams run for 10 yds to the OHIOST 41 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+36
98.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 36 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:462% → 2%
Q2 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 6 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
98.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
50
-7
97.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Al-Shadee Salaam for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+3
98.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Al-Shadee Salaam for 3 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1698% → 98%
RUTGDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:272% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD16 plays · 39 yds · 4:4098% → 99%
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 5 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+6
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 6 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
97.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+2
97.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.5%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Tyreem Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 17 yds · 0:301% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
98.9%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted Avery Young return for 15 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14FG8 plays · 42 yds · 4:241% → 2%
Q3 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+26
98.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Sean Ryan for 26 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1198% → 100%
RUTGDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 30 yds · 4:241% → 1%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 10 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD9 plays · 55 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
99.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 18 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
99.7%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Holding (4 Yards) to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:510% → 0%
OSUDrive 19TD5 plays · 20 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 20 yds · 2:320% → 0%
OSUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-6
100.0%
Evan Simon sacked by Ryan Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 10:01
Miyan Williams run for 70 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+1.2
FG · Q3 10:12
Jude McAtamney 35 yd FG GOOD
-0.9